980
FXUS64 KBMX 061451
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
951 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 951 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2024

The previous forecast remains on track. Only made minor
adjustments to sky cover and PoPs over the next few hours based
upon observational trends. Mostly cloudy skies will persist over
our southeast counties, expanding west over our southwest counties
later today. Isolated showers and some thunderstorms will be
possible with best chances across the far southeast, expanding
west across our far south-central and eventually our far southwest
counties later this afternoon as a weak inverted trough gradually
moves west across the North-Central Gulf of Mexico.

A full short-term forecast update will be forthcoming later this
morning.

05

Previous short-term discussion:
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2024

Central Alabama remains on the northern edge of weak mid level
troughing and a moisture axis along the Gulf coast. Weak impulses
within the trough and ripples in low level easterly flow have
allowed for a few showers to develop this morning across southeast
Central Alabama. Although coverage will remain low today, cannot
rule out showers or a thunderstorm across the southeast through
the day.

A trough will move through the Great Lakes tomorrow, pushing a dry
front into the area. This will push the moisture axis southward
with drier air spreading into the region. Breezy northerly winds
are possible due to the tightened pressure gradient with mostly
clear skies.

14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2024

An upper-level confluence zone situated between a western U.S.
ridge and eastern U.S trough, will support high pressure across
the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. In the Gulf of Mexico,
what is expected to become Hurricane Milton, will move from the
Gulf of Mexico across the Florida Peninsula Tuesday into
Wednesday. This will create a pressure gradient with northeasterly
winds across the Deep South. Rain associated with Milton should
remain well to our south as we remain on the dry, subsident side
of this tropical cyclone.

As the upper-level features shift eastward later in the week,
surface high pressure will settle in across the Appalachians. With
decreasing winds and PWAT values falling below 1 inch, overnight
temperatures will trend downward into the upper 40s to lower 50s for
lows on Friday and Saturday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2024

Expect light fog at TCL to lift quickly this morning, with VFR
conditions expected for the remainder of the forecast period. A
few showers are possible near MGM for a few hours this morning,
and depending on radar trends, SHRA might need to be added after
14Z. Easterly to northeasterly winds at 5-9kts through the
afternoon will diminish this evening.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A few showers are possible in the southeast today, with
temperatures in the upper 80s. Easterly to northeasterly 20ft
winds will be 7-10mph with afternoon RHs above 45 percent. Rain-
free weather begins Monday. Afternoon minimum RHs are expected to
remain above critical thresholds, but could begin to reach the
lower to middle 30s early next week across the west. 20-foot winds
become northerly to northeasterly non Monday, at than 10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  61  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    85  61  84  54 /  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  87  64  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  88  64  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      86  64  85  56 /  10   0   0   0
Auburn      80  63  85  60 /  20  20   0   0
Montgomery  83  64  88  59 /  20  20   0   0
Troy        79  62  86  60 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...14