Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
195 FXUS64 KBMX 041109 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 609 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 605 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2025 - A Flood Watch is in effect across east Alabama through Tuesday evening. Periods of heavy, slow-moving showers and thunderstorms could cause flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 142 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2025 Monday: A plume of showers and a few thunderstorms is likely to blossom this morning across east Alabama into Georgia as a compact mid- level wave interacts with isentropic lift and a swath of high vertical moisture content (PWATS as high as ~2.25 inches). While there is a bit of flow aloft from a 500 mb trough that should cause most of the activity to have some forward speed, effects from the wedge extending down the lee of Appalachia could counteract this in areas and result in clusters of slow-moving activity. Some short-range guidance show the potential for several inches of rain to occur over a short period of time, influenced by high rainfall rates and training activity. In areas where this occurs, there will be a risk for flash flooding. The main area of showers and thunderstorms should become more focused across Georgia by mid to late afternoon as the shortwave continues to track to the northeast; however, short-range models indicate a focused axis of low-level lift will persist across parts of east/southeast Alabama through Monday night. Should this occur, additional clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms may develop with a renewed risk of flash flooding. Tuesday: The interaction of a trough overhead and ridging across the west Atlantic will maintain a plume of high moisture content and lift across the Southeast U.S. Parts of east/southeast Alabama could remain involved within waves of heavy showers and thunderstorms, though the best signal for this continues to be over Georgia. Due to the occurrence of rainfall over days prior and general proximity, the Flood Watch has been extended through Tuesday. 89^GSatterwhite && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 142 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2025 There is not a lot of change in the overall mid-level weather pattern across the region over the next several days, featuring a trough in our vicinity, between high pressure systems to the west and east. Areas of surface low pressure will exist just off the Southeast U.S. where the bulk of precipitation will occur, with isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms for central Alabama. High temperatures will average in the 80s across the area. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2025 Low CIGS are expected to remain for this entire TAF period, with terminals fluctuating between IFR/MVFR. Showers are also expected today, with the greatest confidence and coverage near KMGM and KAUO. These showers will likely result in reduced VIS as well. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... No issues from fire weather elements are expected over the coming days. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected, most focused on the afternoon to evening time frame. 20-foot winds will be light, except variable and gusty in and near showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 76 65 79 66 / 50 50 50 30 Anniston 75 66 78 68 / 70 50 60 40 Birmingham 78 68 80 69 / 40 40 50 20 Tuscaloosa 82 69 86 70 / 40 20 40 20 Calera 77 68 82 70 / 50 40 60 30 Auburn 74 68 80 70 / 80 70 80 50 Montgomery 80 71 83 70 / 80 60 70 30 Troy 80 70 83 69 / 80 60 80 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for the following counties: Barbour-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa- Elmore-Lee-Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Talladega- Tallapoosa. && $$ SHORT TERM...89^GSatterwhite LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite AVIATION.../44/