461
FXUS64 KBMX 200534
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1234 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening)
Issued at 540 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025

Increased PoPs across the eastern portions of the area through 10
pm to account for the outflow associated activity moving in from
Georgia. Really do not expect the activity to make it too far into
the area, but will remain a focus for showers and storms as it
drifts in.

16

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025

A lingering convergent boundary remains stretched across Central AL
today, which will help lead to some isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms later this afternoon across a good portion of
the area. Otherwise, the main impact today will again be the high
heat indices through the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures
overachieved yesterday in some spots depending on cloud cover
during the mid afternoon and any proximity to the thunderstorm
activity. That could occur again today with some locations that
don`t see showers/thunderstorms early enough could see high
temperatures reach slightly above the forecast.

Overall, high temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 90s
across the west with upper 80s to low 90s across the eastern
portions of Central AL.

25/Owen

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025

As Hurricane Erin continues to pull away from the East Coast towards
the end of the week, we`ll see some weak troughing across the area,
leading to slightly higher than typical rain/thunderstorm chances
across Central AL, especially across the southeastern half of the
area. Overall, this should lead to a break from the heat impacts
we`ve seen the past several days. As we look into the first of next
week, guidance continues to show a frontal boundary pushing
southward into Central AL on Monday and to the coast by Monday
evening. Right now, this appears to be largely a dry cold front with
guidance showing little rain along the boundary aside from the
typical diurnal activity.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2025

Will maintain a predominantly VFR forecast across central Alabama
TAF sites through the next 24 hours. Pretty much persistence, with
just a slight uptick in thunderstorm coverage expected today
compared to Tuesday. Which was handled with the PROB30 groups.
Otherwise, light winds and scattered afternoon CU.

NOTE: AMD NOT SKED has been added at TCL until further notice due
to comms issues.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Generally light easterly to northeasterly winds are expected,
becoming more northerly as we go into the end of the work week.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through the next
several days. No critical fire weather issues expected through
the weekend. For planning purposes, a cold front could bring some
much lower dewpoints and afternoon humidity levels into the area
early to middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     93  71  90  70 /  40  20  20  10
Anniston    92  71  90  70 /  40  20  20  10
Birmingham  94  73  90  72 /  40  20  20  10
Tuscaloosa  95  74  92  72 /  40  20  20  10
Calera      93  73  90  72 /  40  20  30  10
Auburn      90  72  91  72 /  40  10  30  20
Montgomery  94  74  93  73 /  30  20  40  20
Troy        92  72  92  72 /  30  20  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION.../61/