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FXUS64 KBMX 080213
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
813 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 810 PM CST FRI FEB 7 2025

The frontal boundary is generally stalled across the the northern
third of the area. Temperatures are trending warmer in the south
and cooler in the northern, so made some adjustments on both
sides. Overnight, there will be an increase in clouds across the
area as well as fog advection in the southern half. Once the
clouds and fog develops, we should see temperatures remain steady
or even increase a few degrees before sunrise. It will be a slow
rise during the morning on Saturday but the afternoon will warm up
nicely across the area with near record highs once again.

16

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1227 PM CST FRI FEB 7 2025

As forecast at this time yesterday, the surface front has stalled
right along the I-20 corridor. You can see the position of the
front on visible satellite, with a noticable decrease in cumulus
development north of the front. Slightly cooler and drier air has
moved in behind the front, with temperatures in the 50s and lower
60s with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s across the northern half of
the CWA. A warm and humid airmass exists elsewhere south of the
front with temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s and
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. With the stalled front
lingering over the area, an isolated shower will remain in the
forecast along and south of the front for the remainder of the
afternoon. The high temperature forecast for counties where the
stalled front is draped will be the most challenging this
afternoon. As an example, Birmingham is sitting at 68 degrees
while our office is 76 at the Shelby County Airport. As the front
begins to move back to the north, some locations could rise 10 to
15 degrees quickly this afternoon especially for Birmingham and
points eastward along I-20.

We can expect a rinse and repeat forecast once again during the
overnight hours with isentropic lift developing low stratus and
fog development also likely. Areas with the best chance of seeing
low visibilities would be along and south of the I-85 corridor,
where areas of fog have been added to the forecast. With humid
conditions, low temperatures will remain mild in the 50s and 60s.
Clouds and fog will slowly mix out through Saturday morning as
drier air advects in aloft. With partly cloudy skies during the
afternoon, temperatures will rise to near record territory once
again in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Although an isolated
shower can`t be ruled out Saturday afternoon, I`ve opted to not
include in the forecast at this time due to the ample amount of
dry air that will be present aloft. We`ll also see breezy
conditions return on Saturday from the southwest as a pressure
gradient tightens due to a developing surface low to our north
that will track across the bootheel of Missouri and into Kentucky.
Prevailing winds between 10 and 15mph with gusts up to 25mph are
likely.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CST FRI FEB 7 2025

Long term forecast continue to feature highly zonal upper level
pattern, with an east-west oriented quasi-stationary front
separating an unseasonably mild and moist airmass from a more
typically colder airmass to the north. Weak shortwave troughs in
that zonal flow will bring an occasional patch of light rain
showers into central Alabama through the weekend. Latest computer
model output continues to highlight Tuesday as the day more
impactful weather arrives to the area, in the form of heavier
rain. Surface based instability during the Tuesday through
Thursday time frame still looks rather limited. But given that
(limited) instability, and lift provided by the stronger shortwave
troughs passing through the area, will include some thunderstorms
with the showers during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame, but not
initiate any severe weather messaging at this time. Will need to
monitor later model runs in case the instability trends upward.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM CST FRI FEB 7 2025

Surface winds will remain light and variable. Low MVFR to IFR
stratus will develop once again after 06z tonight, along with a
high likelihood of fog formation as well. At this time, the best
chance for LIFR reduced vis at a terminal will be at MGM, but fog
could also develop as far north as EET, ANB, and ASN as well. Low
clouds and fog erode between 15z and 18z Saturday.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Unseasonably warm and somewhat unsettled weather is expected over
the next several days. Any rainfall through Monday should be
fairly light. The next significant rain chances, including chances
of thunderstorms, will arrive next Tuesday. RH values will remain
above critical thresholds through the period. Low level winds
will increase Saturday afternoon, with a few 10-15 mph gusts but
otherwise should remain below 10 mph through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperature records for Saturday 2/8:

Saturday, February 8...

Birmingham: 83
Montgomery: 81
Tuscaloosa: 84
Anniston:   80

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     52  78  53  67 /  10  10  60  20
Anniston    58  78  58  70 /  10  10  50  20
Birmingham  60  78  56  68 /  10  10  50  20
Tuscaloosa  60  80  57  68 /   0  10  30  10
Calera      60  79  60  71 /  10  10  30  20
Auburn      61  78  61  76 /  20  10  10  20
Montgomery  63  81  62  78 /  20  10  10  20
Troy        62  80  61  78 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...16