778
FXUS64 KBMX 010141
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
841 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 833 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024

Key messages:
- The Heat Advisory has expired.
- The rain has ended.

No additional changes are planned at this time.

/61/

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024

A boundary will move south through the area this afternoon and
evening, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop ahead
the boundary. Instabilities will be between around 3000 J/kg with
shear around 30-40 kts. PW values will be max for this time of
year, around 2 inches. Would expect a few thunderstorms could be
strong with gusty winds and high rainfall rates. Activity will be
scattered through the afternoon, becoming more isolated this
evening as the boundary moves south and drier air advects into the
state. High temperatures are expected to be in the 90s, and with
so much low level moisture, heat indices will be between 105 to
110. Will keep the Heat Advisory going through the afternoon and
early evening.

Tonight, dry air will advect into the state with clearing expected
from north to south through the night. High pressure develops over
the MS River Valley and northerly flow will prevail tonight and
Monday. Low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

Monday, the boundary is expected to slow down and stall somewhere
around the southeastern counties, in an area of I85 and
southeastward. Areas south of the boundary could see additional
showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon Monday, though
areas north should remain dry. PW values will remain close to max
in the areas south of the boundary, with instabilities around
1000-2500 J/kg. North of the boundary, PW values will be down to
the 50th percentile. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s, and thanks the drier air, the heat indices will be
in the upper 80s in the north, to the mid 90s mid state, to
triple digits in the south, closer to that boundary. Will assess
if an additional Heat Advisory is needed for Monday afternoon in
the southern counties.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024

The extended model suite has the large scale pattern exhibiting
little change from the previous forecast. At the start of the
period, the jet stream was meandering on both sides of the
US/Canadian Border while a strong upper level ridge was centered
just to our immediate west. This ridge hangs over Central Alabama
through at least Thursday. Successive systems dive into the trough
in the Northern Plains eventually carving out a deeper trough. This
trough ends up nudging the ridge eastward by next weekend.

Closer to the surface, model guidance has exhibited little change.
Therefore, will maintain the previous forecast discussion reasoning
for pops and Heat Indices through the week. If you haven`t
noticed, summer has arrived.

Farther south, the tropics do remain active. But at this juncture,
the NHC does not advertise any activity near the Central Gulf Coast.

75

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024

Key message:

- Heat and humidity will build through the week with heat indices
  at or above 105 degrees across much of Central Alabama by the
  time the holiday weekend arrives.

A strong subtropical ridge will meander across the Southeast
through the rest of the week, resulting in continued mainly above
normal temperatures and keeping diurnal convection from becoming
too widespread. At the surface, a 1025mb high moving eastward into
the Mid-Atlantic will cause a "cool" air damming wedge to build
down the East Coast. Lingering higher dew points will push
westward from Georgia in advance of the wedge front putting an end
to the temporary humidity reprieve. With low-level southeasterly
flow and weak isentropic lift a couple showers or a storms will be
possible in our southeast counties Monday night. The wedge arrives
on Tuesday with noticeable easterly winds. It will keep highs in
portions of East Alabama in the 80s, while West Alabama remains
hot with heat indices just under 105. Isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms will be possible with sufficient low-level
moisture, but very dry air aloft should limit coverage and think
NBM PoPs are too high. The wedge weakens by Wednesday, and expect
gradually warming temperatures and heat indices through the rest
of the week with coverage of areas with 105+ degree heat indices
increasing through the week. Expect just isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
Friday into Saturday a weakness in the ridge will eventually
develop due to a trough in the westerlies, potentially resulting
in an increasing coverage of convection.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024

As of the 00Z TAf issuance time, all convection was well south of
central Alabama terminals and expected to remain there. That
should leave VFR conditions through this 24 hour forecast cycle.
Fairly high confidence in conditions staying VFR through the
period, with lower dewpoints starting to filter in from the north.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A drier air mass temporarily moves in on Monday with RH values in
the 30 to 40 percent range across the northern half of Central
Alabama, and 40 to 50 percent range across the south. Minimum RH
values increase to above 45 percent areawide for Tuesday. Winds
generally remain light Sunday, and become northerly Monday at 5 to
8 mph, southeasterly 5 to 10 mph Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  92  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
Anniston    73  92  72  89 /  10  10  10  20
Birmingham  74  94  73  92 /  10   0   0  20
Tuscaloosa  74  94  71  95 /  10   0   0  20
Calera      75  94  74  92 /  10  10   0  20
Auburn      75  94  74  85 /  10  20  20  40
Montgomery  75  95  74  90 /  10  10  10  50
Troy        74  96  73  87 /  10  20  20  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM....75
AVIATION...02