866
FXUS64 KBMX 101202
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
702 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025

Moisture will continue to slowly increase from southeast to
northwest as an inverted surface trough approaches from Georgia.
Most of the forecast area will remain dry, and diurnal convection
should be isolated to scattered, with the highest rain chances in
our southeastern counties.

With the arrival of the inverted trough, a more significant surge
in moisture is expected on Monday as 925 to 700 mb flow shifts
from easterly to southeasterly. We can expect noticeably greater
coverage of afternoon and evening convection as 2+ inch PWAT
values advance northward.

87/Grantham

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025

High moisture content will continue to overspread the region on
Tuesday, leading to numerous/widespread showers and storms. With a
moist airmass remaining in place, additional scattered diurnal
convection should continue through the end of the week.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025

Currently we have some MVFR stratus in the ERN part of AL near ASN
and AUO, and getting close to EET/MGM. Last arrival would be
BHM after 15z briefly. Conditions should improve toward midday
and should go VFR between 16-18z. There are low chances for
afternoon diurnal convection. Only confident enough for a PROB30
from 21-00z at AUO/MGM, with conditions being to isolated for
confidence enough to pinpoint elsewhere. E-ENE winds are expected
today with mixing 5-9kts. More low stratus is possible during the
late night tonight developing from the E again.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moist summertime conditions will persist, and there are no fire
weather concerns. Daily showers and thunderstorms will be most
focused on the afternoon to evening time frame. Moisture and rain
chances will gradually trend upward each day through Tuesday.
20-foot winds should remain less than 10 mph from the east through
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     88  71  88  71 /  10   0  40  30
Anniston    87  72  86  72 /  20  10  50  30
Birmingham  88  72  88  73 /  20   0  40  30
Tuscaloosa  90  74  89  74 /  20  10  40  30
Calera      87  72  87  72 /  20  10  50  30
Auburn      85  72  84  72 /  30  10  70  30
Montgomery  89  73  89  73 /  30  10  60  30
Troy        86  72  87  72 /  40  20  70  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87/Grantham
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...08