923
FNUS73 KBIS 052258
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Bears Den...TAT New Town
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
558 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 CDT on October 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

Critical fire weather conditions will remain across the fire area until
later this evening. Strong west northwest winds to 35 mph gusting up to 50 mph
are anticipated until around 2200. Winds gradually diminish overnight tonight.
Relative humidity will start out around 25 to 35 percent early this evening,
then rebound to around 89 percent overnight tonight. Mainly clear and dry
conditions will also be found through tonight. Sunday, west winds will diminish
to around 10 mph. Mainly clear and dry conditions are also expected. Cooler
temperatures in the 60s will be found, although afternoon relative humidity could
still be near 30 percent. Light winds, increasing clouds, and humidity recoveries
near 60 percent can then be expected for Sunday night.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Windy. West northwest winds 27 to 35 mph with gusts
                    to around 50 mph until 2200. Decreasing to 22 to 28 mph with
                    gusts to around 40 to 45 mph until 0100, then becoming 10 to 20 mph
                    with gusts to 25 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West northwest 35 to 40 mph with gusts to 55 mph, decreasing to
                    around 25 mph after 2200.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (278900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy to partly clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds becoming south winds
                    around 5 mph after 0100.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...ANGLIN
Requested by...Terry Hodgkiss
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2423678.0/BIS
.DELDT 10/05/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL thodgkiss@mhanation.com