513
FNUS73 KBIS 181358
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Ash...BLM
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
858 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 CDT on September 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly clear skies will prevail across the fire are this morning.
South winds will increase through the day and may become breezy this afternoon.
Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will then return mid to late this
afternoon and could linger into the evening hours. Showers and thunderstorms then
become more isolated tonight. Breezy southerly winds could also linger tonight,
becoming more of a westerly wind during the overnight hours. Cooler temperatures will
bring increasing humidity values today, and humidity recover tonight could approach
100 percent. Similar temperatures and humidity conditions are expected for Thursday.
Mainly dry conditions with a breezy westerly wind is also expected for Thursday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon.
                    Rain showers likely in the mid to late afternoon, slight chance of
                    thunderstorms.
CWR.................55 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 15 mph in the morning increasing to 15 to 18 mph
                    in the afternoon with gusts to around 25 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    possible with any thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South wind 15 to 25 mph with gust to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (103700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly clear to mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, becoming isolated
                    at night.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................2.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph, becoming westerly after 0300.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Becoming westerly
                    after 0300.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (47700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (7100 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...ANGLIN
Requested by...Hannah
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2422665.0/BIS
.DELDT 09/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mtmcc@firenet.gov