Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
855
FNUS73 KBIS 300126
FWSBIS
Spot Forecast for Hazelton Fire...Forest Service
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
826 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2100 CDT on September 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY...
.DISCUSSION...
Breezy southerly winds will continue tonight around 20 to 25 mph
until around 1-2 AM. Winds will being to shift southwesterly before
a cold front moves through. The front will bring strong northwest
winds around 2-3 AM. Frontal winds could see wind gusts up to 45 mph
through the morning hours. Relative humidity will not recover tonight
with the max relative humidity maybe touching 30 percent by sunrise.
Winds will begin to decrease with temperatures tomorrow evening
leading to increasing relative humidity and lighter winds.
.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 20 to 23 mph shifting to the northwest
19 to 20 mph after 3 am. Gusts up to 40 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 24 to 30 mph shifting to the northwest 22
to 24 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8100 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........6 10 13 22 32 32 32 24 16
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............81 80 78 74 73 72 71 69 66
RH..............28 28 28 29 30 30 31 31 31
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S W NW
20 FT wind spd..23 23 23 23 22 21 20 19 20
20 FT wind gust.34 33 33 32 31 30 28 26 27
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S W NW
Transp wind spd.29 30 29 29 29 28 24 22 24
Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..10 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 20 to 24 mph. Gusts up to 41
mph increasing to 44 mph in the late morning
and afternoon.
Mixing height.......6100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 23 to 30 mph increasing to 33 to 38
mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9200 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (41700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to very good (109900
knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to
excellent (185200 knot-ft) in the afternoon in
the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........12 9 11 13 13 13 10 7 6 6 6 7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............63 58 57 57 58 60 61 61 61 61 61 59
RH..............29 30 30 31 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 33
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..20 20 23 24 24 23 23 23 24 24 23 22
20 FT wind gust.27 27 35 37 37 34 34 35 37 37 35 33
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 0.6 1.6 3.5 4.0 4.8 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.8 6.1
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.25 25 23 30 36 35 35 36 38 38 37 33
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..9 10 12 42 110 121 144 161 180 177 185 177
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 37.
Max humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 12 to 21 mph with gusts to
around 30 mph shifting to the west 9 to 11 mph
late in the evening.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 25 to 31 mph decreasing to 13 to 20
mph early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (170700 knot-ft) decreasing to fair
(52600 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing
to poor (3800 knot-ft) late in the night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........8 4 14 8 12 9 8 7 8 9 10 12
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............57 54 51 49 47 46 45 43 42 41 40 39
RH..............35 38 42 48 53 53 55 60 60 62 62 62
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..21 16 15 14 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 9
20 FT wind gust.30 26 24 20 19 18 17 15 14 14 14 13
Mix hgt (kft)...6.3 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W W W
Transp wind spd.31 25 20 18 17 15 15 15 15 15 14 13
Haines index....4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..171 53 18 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 13 mph with gusts to around 21
mph shifting to the southwest 12 to 13 mph with
gusts to around 21 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 18 mph shifting to the southwest 18
to 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (100500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........14 16 19 23 26 29 33 36 38 40 42 50
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............38 38 40 43 47 51 55 58 60 62 62 61
RH..............64 64 59 55 47 39 32 28 25 23 23 25
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..8 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 12
20 FT wind gust.12 12 13 14 14 15 18 19 20 21 21 20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 2.3 3.7 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.9 4.3
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W SW SW
Transp wind spd.12 10 10 10 12 14 15 17 18 20 20 18
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..3 3 5 7 10 27 49 75 86 95 101 68
$$
Forecaster...JOHNSON
Requested by...Ryan Melin
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2423251.0/BIS
.DELDT 09/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ryan.melin@ndsu.edu