646
FNUS73 KBIS 101127
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Bear Den...Three Affiliated Tribes
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
627 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 CDT on October 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front is forecast to pass through the burn site this morning, with
southerly winds shifting to the northwest. The timing of frontal passage
will also have an affect on temperature and humidity, so if the front is
delayed max temperature may be a bit higher and min humidity values may be
lower. At this time, it appears that temperatures should climb into the
mid 70s with minimum humidity values dropping to around 27 percent. Winds
will increase to around 14 to 17 mph with gusts to 25 mph behind the front.

Winds will gradually decrease this evening. There is a slight chance for
rain showers, but if a shower were to happen it should be quite light.

Quiet weather with light winds and higher humidity values are expected
for Friday.

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South to southwest winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 14 to 17 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 18 mph shifting to the northwest 20
                    to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor early in the morning increasing to good in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........59  65  51  52  59  68  37  53  55  60  74  65
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............47  48  49  50  56  61  66  69  72  75  74  72
RH..............60  56  51  46  40  38  34  32  30  27  28  29
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..5   6   7   8   9   13  13  14  15  17  17  15
20 FT wind gust.11  12  13  13  14  18  20  21  22  25  25  22
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.2 3.6 3.8
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.13  15  14  15  16  18  20  22  23  25  25  23
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5


.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
                    Slight chance of rain showers in the late
                    evening and overnight.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 14 mph becoming north at 6 to 9 mph
                    after midnight. Gusts up to 25 mph in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 12 to 20 mph decreasing to around 10 mph
                    late night.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair early in the evening decreasing to poor.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph early in the morning gradually
                    shifting towards the southeast by afternoon.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 8 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...SCHILD
Requested by...Marle Baker
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2423979.0/BIS
.DELDT 10/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL marlebaker@mhanation.com