645
FNUS73 KBIS 111236
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Belcourt Fires...NDDES Watch Center
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
736 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 CDT on May 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
CDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

Hot and dry at the incident site today, with highs in the mid 90s
and minimum relative humidity around 14 percent. Winds are a bit
variable to start the day, but will settle to be from the south
at 10 to 15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Mid to high clouds will be
on and off through the day, with chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms increasing late this afternoon and this evening, and
continuing through the night. Winds could become gusty and erratic
around any areas of precipitation. Relative humidity will recover
to the mid 50 percent range tonight before another hot and dry day
Monday that will be similar to today. Winds on Monday will be a bit
more southwesterly, again at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25, and
minimum relative humidity will be around 15 percent, with high
temperatures in the mid 90s.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Chance of thunder...5 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 10 mph increasing to 10 to
                    15 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 9 to 12 mph shifting to the southeast
                    10 to 12 mph late in the morning, then shifting
                    to the south 15 to 20 mph early in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (158800 knot-ft) late
in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........78  62  52  40  33  40  32  28  31  37
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10
Temp............62  66  72  79  83  87  90  92  94  93
RH..............52  47  38  29  24  19  17  15  15  14
20 FT wind dir..SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  11  11  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.        12  15  15  18  20  22  22  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.9 3.1 5.8 8.8 9.5 9.8
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.9   12  10  12  12  14  18  21  24  24
Dispr kt-ft/1K..3   6   10  13  19  37  92  159 201 206

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
Chance of showers through the night, with
    isolated thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Chance of thunder...20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 24 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 13 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (172600 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (3300 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........35  35  38  44  61  57  52  58  56  43  46  52
Weather cov.....    CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  30  30  40  30  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Chc of thdr (%).0   20  20  20  20  20  20  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............92  91  86  81  77  75  72  71  69  67  65  63
RH..............15  16  20  27  34  38  40  41  44  47  51  54
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..12  11  10  10  10  10  9   9   9   9   8   8
20 FT wind gust.18  17  17  15  15  15  14  14  14  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...8.2 2.3 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.24  17  17  17  16  16  20  18  16  15  13  13
Dispr kt-ft/1K..173 35  10  6   5   6   8   6   5   5   4   3

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Chance of thunder...5 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......9200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 25
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (174100 knot-ft)
in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........58        7         5         4
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).10        0         0         0
Chc of thdr (%).10        0         0         0
Temp............63        70        86        94
RH..............54        45        24        16
20 FT wind......SW 8G13   SW 8G14   S 10G15   SW 13G20
Mix hgt (ft)....300       700       2800      7400
Transport wind..W 9       S 13      SW 17     SW 21
Dispr kt-ft/1K..2         8         43        136

$$
Forecaster...JONES
Requested by...Watch Center
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2513650.1/BIS
.DELDT 05/11/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL watchcenter@nd.gov