Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FNUS73 KBIS 051131
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for 2025 Pines Piles RX...USFS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
531 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 MST on December 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Cloudy skies and a chance of light snow is expected at the burn
site at the time of ignition. Chances for snow will taper off
through the the late morning, then another slight chance for
lightly accumulating snow is expected this afternoon. High
temperatures this afternoon are forecast to be 32 degrees, while
the minimum relative humidity drops as low as 85 percent. Breezy
northwest winds from 10 to 15 MPH and gusting up to 25 MPH are
expected through the afternoon, before diminishing through the
evening and overnight.

The probability of snow increases through early tonight through
Sunday morning, becoming definite through the day. Expected snow
accumulations around the burnsite through Saturday night is
broadly from 1 to 3 inches, with a low chance of 4 inches or
greater. High temperatures on Saturday are forecast to be around
20 degrees, while minimum relative humidity drops as low as 84
percent. Southeast winds will turn breezy out of the east through
the morning and afternoon on saturday, with sustained speeds from
10 to 15 MPH and gusts up to around 20 MPH.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Chance of snow through the morning,
                    then a slight chance of snow early in the
afternoon.
CWR.................8 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 31.
Min humidity........88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (47400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MST)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM
Sky (%).........99  100 97  95  93  92  90  90  89  88
Weather cov.....CHC CHC SCH SCH     SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....SN  SN  SN  SN      SN  SN  SN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  20  20  10  20  20  20  10  10
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............28  29  29  30  30  31  30  29  28  27
RH..............100 96  100 96  92  88  88  88  92  88
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..11  12  12  14  15  14  13  12  10  8
20 FT wind gust.17  18  20  20  21  20  20  19  14  12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.5 1.1
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.22  20  20  21  22  21  18  18  16  13
Dispr kt-ft/1K..29  26  30  37  47  45  38  34  21  12

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Snow becoming likely through the
                morning.
CWR.................9 percent.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 12.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening, becoming southeast from
                    5 to 10 mph late in the evening.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest winds from 7 to 10 mph becoming
                    east 10 to 15 mph overnight, then
                    increasing to around 17 mph early in the
                    morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5500 knot-ft).

TIME (MST)      5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM
Sky (%).........88  89  89  89  90  91  93  94  95  96  96  96
Weather cov.....                                    SCH CHC LKY
Weather type....                                    SN  SN  SN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10
Chc of pcpn (%).10  0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  40  60
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............23  21  20  19  19  19  19  18  18  18  17  17
RH..............96  100 100 100 100 100 96  100 100 96  100 100
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NE  SE  SE  SE  E   SE  SE  E   E
20 FT wind spd..5   4   3   3   4   5   5   6   7   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.8   6   5   5   6   7   9   10  11  12  12  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.10  7   7   7   8   9   12  14  14  16  16  17
Dispr kt-ft/1K..8   6   6   6   7   8   11  13  12  14  14  18

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Snow through the day.
CWR.................56 percent decreasing to 9 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Chance of thunder...1 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 19.
Min humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 10 mph becoming
                    northeast 5 to 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East wind 12 to 20 mph becoming northeast
                    around 12 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (14600 knot-ft).

TIME (MST)      5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM
Sky (%).........97  96  96  95  95  95  94  94  94  93  91  89
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............60  60  60  60  60  60  10  10  10  10  10  10
Chc of pcpn (%).90  90  90  90  90  90  80  80  80  80  80  80
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............16  15  14  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  14  13
RH..............100 100 100 100 96  92  92  88  88  84  84  84
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9   9   10  11  11  11  10  9   8   5
20 FT wind gust.13  13  13  14  14  15  17  17  15  14  13  11
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE
Transp wind spd.18  20  20  20  20  20  20  17  15  13  12  12
Dispr kt-ft/1K..20  20  22  22  25  27  28  26  21  17  16  15

$$
Forecaster...ADAM
Requested by...Dawson Glock
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2526774.2/BIS
.DELDT 12/05/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dawson.glock@usda.gov