904
FXUS63 KBIS 241208
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
608 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread accumulating snow late this afternoon through
  Tuesday evening.

- Areas in a Winter Storm Watch could see snow accumulations of
  4 to 9 inches. Areas outside of this watch could see 1 to 4
  inches of snowfall.

- Strong northwest winds, with gusts near 50 mph, are forecast
  tonight through Tuesday. Snow combined with strong winds may
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow during this time
  period.

- There remains increased confidence in a cold and active
  pattern after Thanksgiving, which could lead to additional
  travel concerns for the end of the holiday weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Mid level clouds have moved into the northwest, while mainly
clear skies remain elsewhere. Some patchy fog is still possible
underneith these mainly clear skies, although reports have been
limited. Adjust patchy fog mention to mainly be in areas
currently with clear skies. Otherwise the forecast mostly
remains on track. A look at forecast soundings hinted previous
forecast may be holding on to rain chances too late into the
evening and early overnight hours. Made some adjustments to
ptypes to switch over snow mention at slightly warmer
temperatures. This brings the change to all snow earlier
tonight, although made little impacts to the overall snowfall
forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Surface high will remain in place this morning, with zonal flow
aloft. Mainly dry conditions will be found as a result, with
some patchy fog in areas with clear skies. As this high moves
east today, a developing surface low will begin to bring rain
showers across western and some central areas, with perhaps a
quick transition to snow across the northwest later this
afternoon. HREF also showing some freezing rain potential near
the rain/snow line this afternoon into the early evening,
although forecast soundings showing the chances for this to be
low or brief. Daytime snow accumulations are expected to be
light, although a quicker transition to snow in the northwest,
combined with some increased snow rates due to some frontogenesis
banding, has the potential to bring brief moderate snowfall
rates this afternoon. Highs today will be cooler yet near normal
in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

Tonight through Tuesday will see more widespread winter weather
impacts across the forecast area. Low pressure system and its
associated cold front is expected to push across the state from
northwest to southeast during this time period. Mainly snow is
expected across the north, while a mix of rain and snow is
initially found elsewhere, changing to all snow later in the
overnight period. Snow then lingers through the day Tuesday,
expected to diminish from west to east Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Probabilities for at least 6 inches of snow in the
ongoing Winter Storm Watch remain about 30 to 60%. However, 25th
to 75th percentiles on forecast snowfall amounts are around 4
to 9 inches across this watch. Potential for isolated heavier
snowfall amounts still remain, with WPC Snowband Probability
Tracker showing several tracks greater than 0.05" QPF range.
These tracks drop off when the greater than range is increase to
0.1". This could be due to the quick moving nature of this
system and the overall lack of frontogenesis. However, QG
forcing still remains high as the upper wave moves through
tonight and Tuesday morning. Of note are still high ECMWF EFI
values and elevated shift of tails for snowfall, which mostly
fall in the watch area. There also remains some uncertainty on
the full transition to snow. Northern areas should change over
quickly, while southern areas may delay until later tonight.
Overall, confidence was not high enough to upgrade the watch at
this time, although there are some hints areas within the watch
could see widespread 6+ inches of snow. Strong winds are still
expected to accompany this front. Areas in southwestern North
Dakota will likely see the strongest winds later tonight through
Tuesday morning. Max HREF ensemble data showing gusts near 60
MPH possible, although the 90th percentile of the NBM not
showing gusts quite this high. There are high pressure rises as
this front moves through. The uncertainty comes from how much
mixing can occur from the strongest winds at the 850 mb level.
ECMWF EFI values are also still more concentrated in South
Dakota at this time. Given this uncertainty held off on any wind
highlights at this time. Overall snow with areas of blowing and
drifting snow still likely across the state tonight through
Tuesday. Confidence was not high enough to adjust highlights at
this time, although the highest snowfall amounts should come in
the watch area yet away from the highest forecast winds in the
southwest. Temperatures will cool behind this front, with
forecast highs Tuesday in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

Surface high moves in Tuesday night, ending snow and strong
winds. Overnight lows look to be in the single digits to teens.
This surface high under northwest flow aloft looks to stick
around Wednesday and for much of Thanksgiving. Some breezy winds
may linger in the east Wednesday, but overall winds look to be
diminished compared to Tuesday. Chances for snow will be limited
under this surface through for both Wednesday and Thanksgiving.
Temperatures will be colder with highs generally in the 20s,
except for some lower 30s southwest. Lows look to be in the
single digits and teens.

As the high moves east Thursday night, a broad surface low looks
to build lee of the Rockies. Meanwhile, and upper level wave
could bring a frontal boundary that drapes across the state.
Chances for accumulating snow could return as a result Thursday
night through Friday. NBM currently has 20 to 50% chance of at
least and inch or more from this wave. Winds look to remain
light with this wave, while temperatures remain cool and mainly
in the 20s. Clusters still showing a broad trough pattern over
the weekend. Today`s clusters hinting this wave could be split
with the southern split the more impactful. Most clusters have
this southern split to our south, limiting the chances for snow
across North Dakota. That being said NBM has slight to chance
PoPs through the weekend. Although the chance for at least an
inch of snow through the weekend is generally 10 to 40 percent.
Winds overall look to remain on the lighter side through the
weekend. This broad trough could reinforce the colder
temperatures and bring highs in the teens, with lows in the
single digits above and below zero. There are still some larger
temperatures spreads in the NBM, especially later in the weekend
into early next week. Uncertainty in the trough pattern and
perhaps a building ridge to the west could be influencing this
temperature spread.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR conditions are expected this morning, with some mid level
clouds in the northwest. Patchy fog remains possible this
morning under sites with clear skies, although confidence was
not high enough to include in the forecast at this time. Rain
and snow chances to return across western and some central
portions this afternoon. MVFR conditions are possible through
this afternoon. Tonight, widespread snow is expected, with
perhaps a brief period of rain during the onset of
precipitation. This will bring MVFR to IFR conditions to most
sites. Strong north northwest winds behind a cold front tonight
could also bring areas of blowing snow. Sites with strong winds
and snow could see LIFR conditions tonight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning
for NDZ001>005-009>013-017-021.
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening
for NDZ022-023-025-035>037-047-048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin