300
FXUS63 KBIS 030314
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1014 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A winter storm will continue to impact the Northern Plains
  through late this evening, with light snow lingering across
  central and eastern portions of the state.

- Seasonably cool temperatures will continue through the end of
  the week. There is also a chance (50 to 80%) of rain and snow
  Thursday night through Friday.

- Dry weather and a warming trend can be expected for next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Mainly light snow continues to linger across south central and
southeastern portions of the state. Snow has for the most part
moved out of Sheridan County, and will exit most of Burleigh
county in the coming hour. Thus have ended the Winter Weather
Advisories in these counties. The remainder of the ongoing
winter highlights have been extended until 1 AM CDT as mainly
light snow will linger perhaps bringing continued reduced
visibility and travel impacts. Otherwise look for a mostly
cloudy night tonight with lows in the 20s. There could be some
patchy fog, although winds look to remain elevated in the
central and east while western areas see more dry air move in.
For now left fog mention out of the forecast given the
uncertainty.

UPDATE
Issued at 712 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Main update was deciding on current winter weather highlights.
Snow continues to fall across central and eastern portions of
the state, although should go on a diminishing trend through
this evening. There still remains visibility reports of a mile
or less across portions of the CWA with some travel impacts also
being reported. Thus decided to extend the Winter Weather
Advisory and Winter Storm Warning to areas east of the Missouri
River until 10 PM CDT. Areas west of the Missouri River along
with McLean county are not getting quite as much lingering snow
currently, thus allowed the Winter Weather Advisory in these
areas expire. Will continue to monitor for any changes and
adjust these highlights as needed through this evening.
Otherwise, just made some minor changes to PoPs based on current
radar trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Currently, last round of moisture continues across the Northern
Plains this afternoon, as enhanced mid/upper level forcing
associated with the base of the mid level trough and enhanced
left exit region upper jet dynamics are over the region.
Aforementioned forcing, coupled with a continued thermal upglide
flow and an associated TROWAL, will all bring continued light
to moderate snow to eastern and at times central areas of the
state today in the form of wrap around snow. Strong moisture
fetch originating out of the Gulf of America would normally
bring heavier precip/snow amounts, though much of this moisture
will be used up be strong/severe convective activity today
across the Mississippi/Ohio River valleys. Still, areas within
the warning (James River Valley) will see in excess of 6 inches
of snow by the end of this event, with already a few reports of
6-8 inches.

Current system lifts northeast tonight, ending precipitation
from west to east as forcing rapidly decreases. A quasi-zonal
flow aloft will be in place for Thursday, maintaining cooler
temperatures and variable cloud cover. This will then be
followed by a split flow pattern developing Thursday night, with
a northern stream wave bringing another round of light
precipitation (mainly in the form of snow (though some rain
mixed in)) late tomorrow through the day Friday.

After Friday and into next week, confidence is high for dry
weather a warming trend as flow aloft is projected to transition
to upper level ridging allowing mild Pacific air into the Great
Plains region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 712 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Linger low clouds and snow will continue to bring periods of
MVFR to IFR conditions through this evening. Snow is overall
expected to diminish late this evening, although lower clouds
may persist through the night. This could bring MVFR to perhaps
IFR ceilings. Thursday will see lingering SCT to BKN skies with
MVFR to low VFR ceilings. The next round of rain and snow may
enter into the west late in this TAF period, then push across
the state Thursday night through Friday from west to east. This
could impact sites from about KXWA to KDIK and westward. Placed
a PROB30 group for snow in KXWA, with confidence not high
enough for any precipitation mention at KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for NDZ023-025-
036-046.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for NDZ037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...Anglin