785
FXUS63 KBIS 012330
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
630 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A winter storm will continue to impact the Northern Plains
  through Wednesday, with moderate to heavy snow across the
  south central and east.

- Gusty winds this evening and Wednesday will lead to periods
  of blowing snow, mainly where and while snow is falling.

- Seasonably cool temperatures will continue through the end of
  the week. There is also a chance (30 to 50%) of rain and snow
  Thursday night through Friday.

- Dry weather and a warming trend can be expected for next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

The next round of precipitation has begun to lift across the
North Dakota/South Dakota border at the time of this update,
with measurable perception starting to be reported at some of
our southern most stations. With that in mind, this
precipitation is probably still falling as liquid. A transition
to snow has evident in the characteristics of the radar in the
southwestern flank of reflectivities still down in South Dakota,
so a similar transition is expected to soon occur in our
forecast area as well. Otherwise, low clouds continue to blanket
the northern Plains this evening. No major changes to the
forecast were needed at this time, as it remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Currently, long wave upper level trough over the western CONUS
with weak ridging/zonal flow over the eastern CONUS. Initial
embedded mid level disturbance coupled with an easterly upglide
flow and southerly moisture transport as far south as the Gulf
of America produced decent moisture amounts across central and
more so eastern areas of the local area the past 12-18 hours or
so. Snowfall and moisture with this initial wave have been
relatively light, roughly up to around 2 inches of snow or a few
tenths of an inch of moisture. This first wave and associated
precipitation continues to move off to the east and north, still
perhaps creating travel impacts over the Turtle Mountain
region. As such, opted to extend the Special Weather Statement
there for another couple of hours.

Our next round of moisture tonight into Wed will see heavier
amounts and greater coverage as enhanced mid/upper level
forcing associated with the base of the western CONUS wave moves
east across the Rockies and deepens over the Northern/Central
Plains of Nebraska and South Dakota. This forcing, coupled with
a continued thermal upglide flow and eventually an associated
TROWAL, will bring moderate (and at time heavy) precipitation
to central and eastern areas of the state tonight into Wed, with
the heavier precipitation and longer duration still expected
southeast where winter storm warnings remain in affect
(including much of the James River Valley). No changes to
headlines with this product issuance as all is on track.

Will still see at times some mixed precipitation, but overall
either rain or snow or a mix of both is expected with sfc air
temperatures around freezing.

Current system lifts northeast Wed night, followed by a split
flow aloft regime through early this weekend. This pattern will
support continued cooler temperatures, with another chance for
snow Thu night into Friday as a northern stream wave pushes
across our region.

Next week, confidence is high for dry weather a warming trend as
zonal flow is projected followed by upper level ridging.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Widespread IFR ceilings are found throughout the region to being
the 00Z TAF period. A winter storm traversing the northern
Plains continues to promote adverse aviation weather conditions.
Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions will be found throughout the
period, with occasional improvements to MVFR at times. Another
round of precipitation has begun to move in from south to north
this evening, and is expected to rapidly transition to all snow
before lingering overnight and through the day Wednesday.
Chances for snow will begin to diminish from west to east
through Wednesday afternoon. Breezy southeast winds will become
more northeasterly by the end of the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Wednesday
for NDZ019>023-025-034>036-042-045-046.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for NDZ037-047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...Adam