247
FXUS63 KBIS 121227
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
727 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures return for today and Thursday.
  Light rain and snow along the International Border this
  evening.

- Confidence is increasing that we will be mainly on the western
  edge of the system that will pass through the the Plains Friday
  into Saturday.

- Strong winds will develop over portions of central North
  Dakota into the James River Valley late Friday night into
  Saturday which may lead to visibility reductions from falling
  snow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 718 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Sent out a quick update to stretch the patchy fog southeastward
through much of Wells and Foster Counties as webcam at New
Rockford is looking a bit foggy and Cooperstown has dropped to
1/4 mile. Also increased coverage a bit around
Minot/Mohall/Kenmare areas where a broader area of reduced
visibility is noted. The fog should dissipate later this
morning.

UPDATE
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Patchy fog has formed across the north central this morning
leading to visibility reductions. Fog is forecast to clear
after sunrise. No other updates are needed at this time as the
forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 448 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

An area of low stratus continues to linger across the north
central leading to some reduced visibility. Mid to high clouds
have hindered fog development so far. Today is forecast to warm
into the lower 30s north into lower 60s southwest. The warm
above normal temperatures are due to an upper level ridge
building over the Northern Rockies. An upper level wave is
forecast to traverse the main stream of the jet stream over the
Norther Plains tonight leading to precipitation chances across
the north this evening. Precipitation will likely start as rain
before transitioning to light snow tonight, snow accumulations
will remain low mainly along the International Border.
Overnight lows are forecast to drop down into the upper 20s to
mid 30s.

The aforementioned upper level ridge is forecast to move over
the Northern Plains Thursday. Thus, Thursday is forecast to be
the warmest day of week. High temperatures are forecast to climb
into the lower 40s north to the mid 60s south. A cold front will
be knocking on the door at the International Border Thursday
night moving through the region Friday. This could lead to windy
conditions across the southwest Friday.

A dynamic upper level low is forecast to move across the Central
Plains passing through the Northern Plains into Canada this
weekend. This upper level system continues to hold to the
southeast trend form previous model runs. As this system moves
through the region precipitation will start out as rain
transitioning to mixed frozen precipitation by the evening hours
before finally transition to snow overnight. Precipitation will
start around Friday moving west to east quickly. The trowal
axis looks to set up over the ND MN border. The latest NBM data
has a 18 percent chance of at least 4 inches snow or more for
Jamestown. The GEFs has around a 33 percent chance of 4 inches
or more in Jamestown. While the Euro has around a 14 percent
chance of at least 4 inches of snow or more for Jamestown. The
GEFs is a bit further west than the Euro, however the majority
of the QPF remains in the Red River Valley. Now this system
could shift and any shift westward could bring increased
precipitation probabilities back into the James River Valley.

The ECMWF EFI has central and eastern North Dakota highlighted
for high winds Saturday. A strong surface pressure gradient will
push strong sustained winds around 45 mph with gusts up to 60
mph across the James River Valley into the Red River Valley.
Falling snow and strong winds could lead to visibility
reductions out east. We will continue to monitor this system as
it develops, check back for more details.

Above normal temperatures are forecast to return by Sunday as
another upper level ridge moves across the region. This will
lead to warm above normal temperatures Monday before another
cold front Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

IFR conditions continue at KMOT as patchy fog has formed in
north central North Dakota into the Devils Lake Basin under the
low stratus. Fog is forecast to clear out around mid-morning.
After the fog dissipates, some areas of MVFR ceilings may linger
through the afternoon, possibly expanding towards evening as
a few areas of light rain or snow may develop and linger
overnight. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...JJS/Johnson