441
FXUS63 KBIS 061133
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
633 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler/below seasonal temperatures today, along with chances
  (30 to 50%) for showers and a few thunderstorms.

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm (30 to 60 percent
  chance) are possible on Monday over south central and parts of
  eastern North Dakota.

- Temperatures trend warmer along with near daily chances for
  showers and storms through the middle of this week.

- A strong S/WV and associated surface cold are projected to
  move across the Northern Plains Thursday/Thu night, bringing a
  chance of stronger thunderstorms, breezy northwest winds, and
  cooler temperatures to end the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

No major changes with this product update. Scattered to numerous
showers continue northwest and north central, associated with a
mid level wave moving east along the International Border area.
All weather elements are on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Currently, embedded mid level S/WV over northeastern Montana
advancing east into the Northern Plains this morning, triggering
scattered showers across northwest North Dakota. This activity
will slowly spread eastward ahead of the wave this morning, with
some additional development possible farther south to the ND/SD
border. Also opted to maintain a mention of thunder with the
forcing and some lingering MUCAPE, though odds are only a
handful of strikes if any will occur.

Aforementioned S/WV will continue east across western and
central ND this morning and afternoon, maintaining a chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms for the area. Little
instability and marginal shear so not expecting any stronger
storms. Temperatures will remain cool with this feature aloft,
with afternoon temperatures mainly in the 70s with elevated
cloud cover.

Precipitation chances continue tonight as another embedded wave
follows and tracks east-southeast across Saskatchewan and
towards the Northern Plains. This S/WV will then be the focus
for another possible round of strong to severe thunderstorms
across portions of south central and eastern North Dakota on
Monday, focused along a southwest to northeast orientated sfc
trough moving east ahead of the main mid level wave. Current
projections put the frontal boundary across south central into
northeastern ND at peak heating, with this area and points east in
a Marginal Severe Weather Threat area via SPC.

Temperatures trend briefly warmer as we continue into the
middle portions of the week, as broad ridging develops across
the western CONUS. Temperatures by the middle of the week will
warm well into the 90s most areas west and central. A quasi-
zonal flow over our region will also maintain daily and/or
nightly chances for showers and thunderstorms Tue/Wed. Models
then project another strong mid level trough/closed low
approaching and moving through the region Thu-Fri. Associated
cold FROPA favored to move through west/central ND during the
day Thursday. The FROPA combined with strong forcing aloft,
ample instability, and marginal shear could be the focus for
strong to severe convection Thu/Thu night, and SPC did indeed
throw us in a Day 5 outlook.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

VFR conditions are present across all terminals, and should
prevail through the 12Z TAF period. An area of showers will
continue this morning far northwest into north central ND
(KMOT), with additional showers or storms possible elsewhere
west and central. An unsettled atmosphere will see additional
chances for showers and thunderstorms through this evening at
all TAF sites, with the exception being KJMS where chances are
lower. Generally light and variable winds are expected through
the period. There remains a possibility of some lower ceilings
(low VFR/MVFR) across the west this morning, generally around
the 2-3k ft range.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH