896
FXUS63 KBIS 101208
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
608 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today, mild temperatures continue in the west with near to
  below normal temperatures in the east.

- Chances (40 to 80%) for accumulating snow returns later today,
  continues through Saturday, and diminishes Saturday night into
  Sunday morning. Pockets of rain and freezing rain are possible
  tonight into Saturday morning, mainly west and south central.

- Snow accumulations tonight through Saturday night will
  generally range from 1 to 3 inches, with a low chance (20%) of
  over 3 inches.

- Temperatures are favored to fluctuate between below and above
  normal through next week, the coldest temperatures will be
  Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday morning. Dangerous wind chills
  could accompany these colder temperature periods.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Little needing updating this morning. Low clouds and a few
flurries persist in central and eastern areas. Lingered both of
these in these areas through mid to late morning. Meanwhile,
patchy fog is trying to develop across the northwest as evident
on the nighttime microphysics RGB satellite data. Lingered
patchy fog in these areas through mid to late morning. Otherwise
the forecast remains on track. With accumulating snow potential
this evening through the start of the weekend, and blowing snow
potential Saturday and Sunday from gusty winds, added snow and
blowing snow mention in the HWO for all zones.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

A brief ridge of high pressure will push across the CWA today.
Lingering low level moisture ahead of this ridge continues to
bring low level clouds and a few flurries. Some patchy fog is
also possible in the northwest this morning. The mentioned
ridge should slowly erode these clouds away, although eastern
portions could be mostly cloudy much of the morning. Mild
temperatures in the 20s and 30s will accompany this ridge for
most of the area, except in the east where lingering clouds
cloud keep high temperatures cooler than normal today. Later
today, an approaching clipper system will increase clouds across
the west and may even bring a few rain or snow shower by later
afternoon or early evening.

Tonight through Saturday night, clipper system and associated
surface low moves across the state from northwest to southeast.
Right now there appears to be two main pushes of precipitation
with this system. The first happens tonight through Saturday
morning and is more associated with the warm front ahead of the
system that transitions to the frontal boundary the low
generally tracks across. With this first push of precipitation
there could be some warm air aloft that may bring some pockets
of rain or freezing rain to western and south central portions.
Soundings indicate this above freezing air aloft is rather
limited and mainly snow is expected. Of more concern with this
first push of precipitation is the banded snow potential. The
track of the low is nearly parallel to the frontal boundary that
sets up. Lapse rates and frontogenesis along and ahead of this
low are of note, although not particularity high. What is more
concerning is the fair amount of warm air advection and QG
convergence mainly along and east of Highway 83, again tonight
through Saturday morning. This would be the areas to monitor
for banded snow or at least more prolonged areas of increased
snowfall rates. This area is also standing out on the HREF 24 hr
snowfall stamps, with many ensembles highlighting this area for
2 to 4 inches of snow. The next push of snow then comes as the
low exits and the cold front pushes through. Limited banding
potential will be found with this, although widespread light
snow could linger across much of the CWA through the day
Saturday, into Saturday night, then diminishing early Sunday
morning. Current snow forecast is a broad 1 to 3 inches, with
the Highway 83 corridor and eastward the area to monitor as well
as some western areas near the MT border. In addition, increase
winds aloft with increasing pressure rises as the low moves
through could bring some breezy winds Saturday through Saturday
night. Areas that can get 1 to 3 inches of snow could also see
blowing snow impacts through Saturday night. For now held off on
any winter highlights, although if banded snow can form or
blowing snow impacts become widespread then winter highlights
may need to be considered. Mild temperatures will remain one
more day on Saturday, with mid 20s to mid 30s forecast.

A broad area of low pressure will remain across the region on
Sunday. Snow from the clipper system should diminish by Sunday
morning, although partly to mostly cloudy skies may remain
Sunday with perhaps some flurries or scattered light snow
showers possible. With some mid level dry air also moving in
Sunday, NBM does not have enough confidence to place any PoPs in
the CWA at this time. This increased gradient could keep breezy
winds on Sunday, which could also lead to patchy blowing snow.
Cold air will filter in from the north, with daytime highs in
the single digits to teens. Confidence is increasing in a cold
start to next week. Much of the area will be below zero for
morning lows Monday morning. With a steady northwest wind
expected, this could lead to some dangerous wind chills and
perhaps the potential for cold weather highlights. The rest of
the day Monday looks mainly dry, although some light snow may
form along a boundary in the southwest. Temperatures will
struggle to get above zero in the east, with teens to lower 20s
west. Another cold night could then be in store for Monday night
into Tuesday morning, with perhaps more cold weather products
possible. Clusters then indicate a ridge from the Pacific
Northwest could encroach into the area starting Tuesday or
perhaps delaying to mid week. This is likely the reason for
broader temperature spreads in the NBM. If this ridge can get
into the area, more mild temperatures will be found. If cooler
northwest flow persists then cooler temperatures will also
continue. The clusters are split about 50/50 for Tuesday, yet
lean 60% towards the warmer solution on Wednesday, indicating
perhaps at the very least a brief warmup could be in store. If
this ridging can take place look for a mainly dry forecast as
well through mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

MVFR cloud deck will remain this morning from about KMOT to KBIS
to K7L2 and eastward including the KJMS area. Meanwhile, patchy
fog will develop in the northwest and bring MVFR to IFR
conditions this morning. This fog could impact the KXWA TAF
site, thus have placed in a TEMPO group for this potential.
Mainly VFR conditions will then be found this afternoon,
although some MVFR ceilings may linger in the east, including
the KJMS area. This evening through tonight, clouds will
increase and lower to MVFR levels. Chances for snow will move
from west to east across the forecast area. This will also bring
MVFR to IFR conditions to most sites, with the lower visibility
and ceilings coming overnight tonight into Saturday. Southerly
wind today will become west northwest tonight into Saturday.
These westerly winds may become gusty, especially on Saturday.
Some low level wind shear may be found tonight into Saturday
from these increasing winds. Confidence was not high enough to
include at this time.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin