055
FXUS63 KBIS 152000
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
300 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 40 percent chance of showers will continue through Wednesday
  afternoon.

- Well below average temperatures through Thursday, with near-
  record cold highs in the 60s Wednesday.

- Dry Thursday, then more chances for showers and storms
  Thursday night through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Currently a small shortwave trough is sitting in central North
Dakota, with showers and a few thunderstorms on its southern and
eastern cyclonic flow sides. A slight surface high in the
northern part of the state is keeping the majority of the
showers in the south. These showers are mostly staying south of
the Interstate. Another shortwave trough and low is moving
moving east through western Montana. On the positive vorticity
advection side of that trough more showers have formed in
eastern Montana and should move into North Dakota through
tonight and Wednesday morning.

With these troughs, cooler air continues to move on through.
Wednesday`s highs could break cold high temperature records in
the southwest and possibly around the Jamestown area.
Dickinson`s cold high is 65 degrees from 1962, and Jamestown`s
is 67 from 1937. The current NBM forecast for these sites are 62
and 66 respectfully.

A third small shortwave will move through from Canada Thursday,
while a low pressure sits in Wyoming. The machine learning
severe probabilities have a level 1 risk for the southwest.
Looks like this could be another late evening to overnight
threat. CAPE and shear from the big 3 models keep it in Montana
and South Dakota. So we will have to continue watching the
trends for that. Thursday will begin our warming trend as the
flow is more zonal. Highs will reach into the 70s. Although we
may not get severe storms, showers and thunderstorms are likely
through the night northwest and central, with a chance
elsewhere. As the wave progresses through the state, so does the
chances of showers and thunderstorms through Friday.

Temperatures will also increase through Saturday as the zonal
flow continues with little embedded waves producing on and off
showers. Sunday and Monday will be the warmest days of the
forecast, as a short ridge brings warmer temperatures through.
As of now, we are looking at highs in the 80s with chances of
more showers and thunderstorms. Machine learning is hitting a
few of these days for possible severe weather, but those are
greater than 4 days out.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

IFR to VFR through tonight. Lower CIGs with the rain showers.
CIGs should lift from north to south. Breezy through most of the
period with northerly winds around 20kts. Areas of wildfire
smoke may reduce VIS below 4SM in the east today and Wednesday.
Winds will switch to the northeast Wednesday afternoon. Rain
showers will stay in the south for the most part this afternoon
and evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith