573
FXUS63 KBIS 160819
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
319 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of rain through tonight, with scattered thundershowers
  this morning. Rain may linger across the north during the day
  Friday.

- Areas of fog will continue through the morning, likely
  becoming more patchy in nature during the afternoon.

- Below average highs northwest to above average highs southeast
  today. Seasonable temperatures for Friday, through the
  weekend, and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Low pressure currently sits over northeastern Colorado/western
Nebraska and will push up through the Dakotas today through
tonight. A cluster of showers, occasionally with a few rumbles
of thunder, is present in the northwest, while a more organized
cluster of showers and thundershowers is present across much of
southern ND. This second cluster of showers and thundershowers
will lift up through the state during the early morning hours.
After which, most thundershower activity should push off into
northeastern ND and northern Minnesota. Areas of fog are present
across most of the forecast area and will persist through the
morning, though may become more patchy in nature this afternoon.

Additional showers, perhaps with a few rumbles of thunder, are
expected to develop this afternoon with the heaviest rain still
favored to occur in western and north central ND. Probabilities
remain in excess of 70 percent that a large portion of western
and north central ND will receive over an inch of total rain,
with the highest probabilities over the northwest. Once this
morning`s thundershowers pass through the south central, dry
slotting may limit additional rain totals. In fact, the sun may
even come out in portions of the south central and southeast,
which combined with warmer air pushing up from the south, could
create quite the contrast in temperatures today. The current
forecast maintains highs ranging from the upper 40s far
northwest to low 70s far southeast.

Showers are expected to linger in the north through Friday
morning, and possibly into the afternoon, before moving off to
the east. After which, mostly dry conditions are expected
through the weekend, with breezy conditions on Saturday.
Shortwave energy could produce a few showers Sunday night and
Monday, but otherwise mostly dry conditions will continue
through the middle of next week. High temperatures Friday
through the middle of next week will be mostly in the 50s to low
60s, while lows will be mostly in the 30s to low 40s. However,
Tuesday may see some cooler highs in the upper 40s across parts
of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Areas of fog, patchy drizzle, and periods of rain are expected
tonight through much of the day Thursday. Occasional
thunderstorm activity is expected as well. Included PROB30
groups for TSRA at KDIK and KBIS tonight, but otherwise
pinpointing thunderstorm activity remains difficult. Conditions
may begin to clear Thursday evening in the south central, though
showers are likely to persist in western parts of the state.
IFR/LIFR ceilings will prevail through the vast majority of the
period at most terminals. Bottom line is to expect significantly
reduced ceilings and visibility, along with periodic rain
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, at all terminals
through most of the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken