088
FXUS63 KBIS 040243
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
943 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to areas of dense fog may return to parts of the area
  tonight, especially in northwestern and central North Dakota.

- Periodic isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
  forecast through the week. Isolated severe thunderstorms are
  possible on Tuesday.

- A gradual warmup is expected through mid-week. Some highs
  approaching 90 return to the forecast Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Given we`re already reaching saturation in a few areas, the
continued humid boundary layer, and lack of surface winds, opted
to expand and increase the potential for fog tonight across
northwest and central areas of the state. Thunder potential has
also decreased, so removed a mention in the HWO, though a few
showers and perhaps a lightning strike or two (given the
continue elevated instability) are possible if any weak embedded
disturbance moves through overnight.

UPDATE
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Pop-up showers and storms continue early this evening, with the
severe threat minimal at best due to lack of any shear. Still,
will monitor as slow storm motion could result in locally heavy
rainfall. Activity should weaken after we lose daytime heating.
Otherwise, another potential for fog tonight with lingering
high boundary layer moisture and lack of low level flow. Stratus
development is also possible again tonight into Mon morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Mostly cloudy skies are present across most of the state. Much
of it is from low-level stratus. However, in places where skies
had cleared, especially the southwest, diurnal cu has
developed. Those clear skies that were in the southwest allowed
a ribbon of enhanced instability to develop that is progged
this afternoon and evening to approach 2500 J/kg of MUCAPE. A
passing subtle shortwave may produce showers and isolated
thunderstorms along this corridor. However, minimal shear is
present, therefore any thunderstorms that develop should remain sub-
severe through tonight. With light southeasterly winds expected,
patchy dense fog may develop tonight and into Monday morning,
especially over northwestern and central ND. Monday through Monday
night should be mostly dry, although a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop during the day.

Tuesday through Tuesday night is when a stronger shortwave will
likely pass through potentially producing more organized showers and
thunderstorms. Some of these storms may enter western ND early in
the morning and pass through during the day. While shear is
expected to increase during the afternoon and early evening,
there is some question as to what convection earlier in the day
might do to the environment. Therefore, continue to concur with
SPC`s marginal risk across most of the state.

Wednesday should be mostly dry before periodic showers and
thunderstorms resume to finish out the week. In regard to severe
weather potential, Thursday continues to be highlighted as a
potential severe weather day with CSU Machine Learning highlighting
a "slight risk" equivalent. That said, a lot can change four days
out. For example, while the GFS still progs ample instability on
Thursday; the deep layer shear profile is much weaker than it looked
even yesterday.

In regard to high temperatures, lowly amplified thermal ridge will
encroach into western ND on Monday. This will allow for near average
temperatures in western ND, with below average temperatures
persisting in eastern ND. Overall high temperatures will gradually
trend warmer through the middle of the week with near-average highs
mostly in the 80s Wednesday and Thursday, with parts of the
area approaching 90 degrees. Another cooling trend is then
favored to finish out the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Areas of low level stratus persists over eastern areas of the
state early this evening, with general clearing elsewhere as we
lose daytime heating. Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain
possible for a few more hours this evening, then will decrease
in coverage and chances as we cool. Confidence on this
development for any given terminal is low so will not mention in
the TAF. Lastly, stratus and fog are likely to develop again
tonight, with the highest confidence east of the Missouri
Coteau.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...NH