421
FXUS63 KBIS 280537
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures generally in the mid 70s to mid 80s through
  Labor Day, with lows in the 50s.

- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly south,
  Friday through Labor Day. The probability for severe weather
  is very low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Limited updates needed at this time. Some high clouds will be
found in the west tonight with clear skies east. Clear skies and
light winds could bring some patchy fog central and east tonight
into Thursday morning. Overall the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 946 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Only forecast adjustment for this update was to add patchy fog
to parts of the James River Valley. Recent rapid-refresh
guidance has more consistently favored fog formation for areas
near Ashely, Oakes, and Carrington, where winds are light, skies
are clear, and dewpoint depressions are already near or at
zero. HRRR/RAP model soundings in those areas confirm a
favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profile for radiation fog.

UPDATE Issued at 555 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

No mentionable forecast changes are needed for this update.
Current observations and trends were blended in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Broad ridging over the western half of the CONUS continues to
maintain seasonable high temperatures through Thursday, along
with mostly sunny skies. Although a few clouds may begin
entering western parts of the state Thursday afternoon as weak
surface low pressure starts to develop in eastern Montana. A
little patchy fog may develop mainly in eastern parts of the
state late tonight, though models only hint at it and forecast
soundings aren`t the most favorable either. Therefore, left fog
mentions out of the forecast at this time.

Upper low pressure will begin organizing over eastern Montana
Thursday night. Along with the aforementioned surface low, this
will very gradually slide eastward across the Dakotas Friday
through the weekend. Increased sky cover and a bit cooler,
albeit still seasonable, temperatures will be the more obvious
result for most. Though there are also low precipitation
chances in the far southwest late Thursday night through Friday.
As the low meanders eastward through the weekend, low
precipitation chances will spread eastward mainly across
southern parts of the state, or mostly along and south of I94.
Higher chances are currently more on the South Dakota side of
the border. Most precipitation that does fall this weekend will
likely be in the form of showers, although a few rumbles of
thunder are possible at times as well. The probability of any
severe weather occurring with any thunderstorms that develop is
very low at this time.

Models are in fair agreement that a more defined shortwave off
east Canadian low will pass through the region sometime during
the middle of next week, along with an associated cold surface
frontal boundary. As a result, the NBM has produced shower and
thunderstorm chances during the middle of the week, while
favoring another cooling trend. That said, the NBM ensemble
temperature spread remains quite high, especially on Wednesday.
This suggests a lack of agreement as to the timing of the
aforementioned cold frontal boundary and the upper level pattern
afterwards.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Tonight into Thursday morning could see some patchy fog in
portions of central and eastern North Dakota. Confidence was not
high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. High clouds may
be found in the west tonight, with mid to high cloud possible
Thursday into Thursday evening. Light and variable winds tonight
will become a light east southeast wind Thursday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Anglin