


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
443 FXUS63 KBIS 041450 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 950 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances will continue again today with an isolated to scattered chance for severe weather east of the Missouri River. The biggest hazards are half dollar size hail, 60mph winds and locally heavy rain. A tornado is possible in the James River Valley. - Another isolated to scattered severe chance of storms Saturday in the west. - Warm and humid conditions today with a cooling trend through the rest of the weekend. Daily thunderstorm chances will carry over into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 941 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Thunderstorms and showers continue to develop across northern South Dakota moving into the south central in the next hour or two. Showers and thunderstorms will form along the boundary in South Dakota moving west to east this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorm will continue to expand eastward with a line filling out. No updates are needed at this time as the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Showers have formed in the southwest and north central. According to the NBM and some CAMs these will continue through the day. Right now they might be too light to hit the ground. The cloud bases are very high, but the air is moist already so at the very least there is probably a drizzle with these. Otherwise today`s severe weather forecast still remains in the same location. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Storms continue to linger in the north central, leftover from Thursday evening`s severe storms. The CAMs have them fully moving out or dissipating before sunrise. Today will be another warm and muggy day with temperatures in the lower 80s west, to lower 90s east. Dew points will still remain in 60s to 70s again. With southwest flow still aloft and this warm and humid air, severe weather is again excepted today. This time east of the Missouri River where dew points are in the 70s. A surface low pressure will move into the southeast, while a cold front sweeps through the northern part of the state. After daytime heating ahead of the front, the front will kick storms off in the afternoon, possibly somewhere between The Missouri River and The James River all south of Minot. We will see however with the CAMs being not very accurate Thursday. The CAPE in a few models is over 2500 J/kg in our east, whereas others have it closer to 1500. The shear is a little low, models have it between 15kts and 30kts. They seem to agree that the high shear is closer to the Devils Lake basin. SPC upgraded our southeast to a slight risk. SPC does have a tornado risk in eastern ND, but it stretches to the James River Valley area. With the higher CAPE but lower shear, we will go with half dollar size hail and 60mph winds in the slight risk area. Storm mode looks like it will be linear. The signal is also there for heavy rain and localized flash flooding, closer to the James River. Our current QPF forecast is 1 to 1.5 inches this afternoon and overnight. PWATs are high with all this moisture in the air. Another wave of southwest flow will move in from Montana Saturday, causing another day of a slight risk of severe storms. This time it is in the far west. The end of the CAM runs have a QLCS moving in from Montana in the evening. Most models however have all the CAPE south and west of the state, but shear could be anywhere from 35kt to 50kts. Through early next week, temperatures will be around the 80s with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms as multiple waves and low pressure system move through. Then a ridge could move in and temperatures warm back into the low 90s. Late next week, a bigger trough could move in with more chances for showers and thunderstorms. It seems like we are now making up for the drier June with all these storms. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Mainly VFR. There are chances for thunderstorms across the state today, and severe thunderstorms in the east this afternoon and evening. This morning light rain is falling in the southwest and north central, this will likely continue all day. MVFR CIGs move into the southeast early Saturday morning. Expect MVFR VIS in thunderstorms. Winds will mainly be from the northwest or north 10 to 15kts. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Johnson DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Smith