117
FXUS63 KBIS 302104
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
304 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to areas of fog may return tonight into Monday morning.

- Well below average temperatures will continue through Monday.
  Wind chill temperatures as low as 25 below zero will be
  possible tonight into Monday morning.

- An active northwest flow is forecast for next week, with
  periodic chances for snow and moderate to large fluctuations
  in day-to-day temperatures.

- Dangerous wind chills may be found Wednesday night into
  Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Surface high will continue its slow progression eastward through
tonight. Low level moisture trapped under this high has brought
low clouds and patch to areas of fog all day. This trend could
continue through tonight, although predictability on the exact
location of this is low. High Res fog guidance now showing fog
redeveloping in much of central and portions of eastern North
Dakota. This could also indicate low clouds may linger in these
areas through tonight. There is an upper level wave forecast to
move through later tonight into Monday morning, which may help
diminish these clouds and fog. For now have placed in patchy fog
mention to these central and eastern areas. Cold temperatures
aloft and southerly flow has been enough to bring some light
lake effect snow showers to the northern shores of Lake
Sakakawea and especially the Van Hook Arm area. Lake effect snow
potential could continue until warmer temperatures at the 850 mb
layer move in with the mentioned upper level wave later tonight
or early Monday morning. For now have mention of snow flurries
to account for this potential. Lows tonight will dip below zero
for many areas. Increased cloud cover could limit this
potential, although clearing skies could bring colder
temperatures. Wind chills are forecast to remain above advisory
criteria, although could get close in some areas. Upper level
wave moves through on Monday, with a weak surface high in its
wake. The result could be slightly warmer yet still below
normal temperatures across the area. This wave could bring some
increased northwest winds. Mainly dry conditions are also
expected. Winds will switch to the northwest, which could favor
some return of lake effect snow. 850 mb winds may be just
slightly too warm though for these to take shape. An approaching
surface low will then switch winds to the west southwest Monday
night, perhaps bringing warming temperatures through the now.
Mainly dry conditions are also expected.

A brief warmup will then be found with this clipper system for
Tuesday, with highs returning into the mid 20s to mid 30s for
most areas. This system may also bring at least slight chances
for snow as it moves through Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Currently models show limited moisture with this system, with
the NBM chances for measurable snow in 24 hours currently at 10
to 40%, and the chances for at least an inch generally less than
10 percent. This clipper could also bring breezy northwest
winds, perhaps leading to some blowing snow potential although
warm temperatures and lack of fresh snow may limit this. Chances
for light snow may then linger through Tuesday night as the cold
front associated with this clipper moves through. Near to below
zero temperatures may also return, with lingering breezy winds
bringing some cold wind chills. Cold yet mainly dry conditions
then look to be found Wednesday through Wednesday night.
Trapped moisture could once again bring lingering low clouds and
perhaps some fog as well, although breezy northwest winds could
persist into Wednesday. Very cold temperatures are forecast for
Wednesday night as the surface high exits the area. This could
lead to some dangerous wind chills perhaps getting into advisory
level criteria.

Clusters indicate trough pattern could persist late next week
into the weekend, with individual solutions showing part of this
pattern could include a more moist westerly flow. This could
provide for better chances of accumulating and perhaps the
return to more seasonable temperatures. NBM has high
temperatures spreads currently, indicating some uncertainty to
this pattern change. There is some increased chances for at
least an inch of snow in a 24 hour period through the weekend,
with NBM chances up to 50% at times. This same pattern could
also bring periods of breezy winds at times.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Lingering low clouds and patchy fog could bring periods of MVFR
to IFR conditions, and perhaps brief LIFR conditions, through
this afternoon. While sites without low clouds and fog should
see VFR conditions this afternoon. Uncertainty remains on
location and timing of the lower visibility and ceilings through
this afternoon. For now used TEMPO groups in sites with highest
probability of seeing IFR conditions. Current forecast has most
site improving to VFR conditions this evening and through
tonight. There still remains some uncertainty to the amount of
clearing, although a weak disturbance aloft should switch winds
westerly and help diminish low clouds and fog. VFR conditions
are then forecast into Monday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin