414
FXUS63 KBIS 090554
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1254 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to areas of fog possible across western and central
  North Dakota later tonight into Thursday morning.

- Mild temperatures remain into the weekend.

- Chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms return
  this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Fog is beginning to develop in southwest North Dakota, with
Hettinger reporting quarter mile visibility. Satellite and
surrounding observations show no other evidence of fog yet.
Will continue to monitor for any need of enhanced messaging for
fog.

UPDATE
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Quiet weather continues across the region. There are some clouds
forming around James River Valley and the north central around
5000 ft. Temperatures continue to cool across the region into
the mid 40s to 50s. No updates are need at this time as the
forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Breezy to windy conditions continue to decrease across the
central and eastern North Dakota this evening. Gusty winds are
forecast to subside after sunset. Quiet weather continues across
the state. Therefore, no updates are needed at this time as the
forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Exiting high pressure will continue to bring breezy and mild
conditions through this evening. A weak and mainly dry surface
trough then moves through tonight, lessening the winds. These
lessening of winds combined with cooler temperatures in the 40s
could bring some patchy to areas of fog tonight into Thursday
morning, especially in the west and some central portions.
Another weak yet mainly dry wave then moves through on Thursday.
This could bring some cloud cover to the east, with mainly clear
conditions elsewhere. Temperatures will remain mild and in the
mid 60s to mid 70s. Surface high then moves through Thursday
night through Friday. Cooler temperatures may be found for
Friday morning, with lows in the 30s to lower 40s. Perhaps some
Freeze products will be needed if these temperatures trend
colder. Cooler highs in the 60s will then be found on Friday.
Some breezy southerly winds may then be found in the west as
this high pulls away later in the day Friday. These breezy winds
may then linger Friday night. Bringing more mild overnight lows
in the 40s to lower 50s. Mainly dry conditions are forecast to
continue.

An approaching trough will bring southwest flow aloft, with
breezy to perhaps windy southerly flow lingering at the surface.
The result will be warming temperatures on Saturday back into
the mid 60s to mid 70s for most areas, along with breezy winds.
A surface warm front could also be the focus for some showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through
Saturday night. Shear and instability still look limited, thus
the chances for severe weather remain very low. The main trough
and cold front then looks to move through sometime Saturday
night through the day Sunday. Along the initial passage of this
cold front cold be a few thunderstorms with chances for severe
weather looking very low. Breezy to perhaps windy conditions may
also be found with this front on Sunday. Front then moves east
and the upper low moves northward into Canada Sunday night.
Perhaps some lingering precipitation could be found in the north
Sunday night. If this precipitation lingers then perhaps some
snow may mix in with rain across the north. Most clusters now
showing this more northern shift to the upper level wave, making
chances for snow in North Dakota low this weekend. This
northern shift has also lowered QPF chances. The current NBM
chance for over an inch in 48 hours over the weekend is 5 to 20
percent with the higher chances coming in the north. Looking
ahead into next week, cooler yet more normal like temperatures
look to be in store. A general trough pattern could also linger
chances for precipitation at times. NBM mainly has rain chances
for now, although perhaps some snow may mix in if precipitation
chances shift to the cooler nights.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Patchy fog is possible across western parts of the state tonight
through early Thursday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through the forecast period. Expect southerly winds for
the rest of tonight, strongest at KJMS and surrounding areas
where low level wind shear is also expected. On Thursday, winds
will become northwesterly around 10 kts, with some higher gusts
possible across the north.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Hollan