909
FXUS63 KBIS 191126
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
626 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend this weekend and into Monday.

- Widespread medium to high chances for rain spread west to
  east Monday afternoon through Monday night, with low to medium
  chances for rain remaining Tuesday.

- Cooler Tuesday, but then seasonable temperatures through the
  remainder of the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Mostly clear and cold to begin your Saturday. Temperatures have
dropped into the teens across western and portions of north
central ND. Last remaining clouds exiting the James River Valley
early this morning. Here temperatures have remained in the 20s.

Made some minor adjustments to sky cover with clouds exiting
the southeast, otherwise no changes were needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Currently, surface high pressure was situated over the Northern
Plains. Low pressure was situated over Alberta Canada with a
warm front extending south into the lee of the Northern Rockies.
In the upper levels a sheared trough extends from the Hudson
Bay area, southwest through the Northern Plains and into the
Desert Southwest. Upstream, an upper level ridge extends from
the Pacific Northwest, northeast through the Northern and
Canadian Rockies, into northern Saskatchewan.

For today, the surface ridge moves east with a southerly flow
becoming established over the forecast area. surface low
pressure develops over central Montana with the thermal ridge
pushing into eastern Montana and far western ND. It will be a
sunny day across the forecast area today with highs generally in
the mid to upper 50s, with some lower 60s possible in the far
west. With dry air situated over the region, we are expecting
afternoon humidity values to drop down into the mid and upper
teens west, to the upper teens to mid 20s central. South to
southwest winds continue to remain on the lighter side, around
10 to 15 mph most areas, but a little stronger (15 to 20 mph)
over portions of northwest ND. This will result in near critical
fire weather conditions this afternoon in northwest ND. Farther
south, humidity values are expected to be a bit lower over the
west central and possibly into the far southwest, but winds are
also expected to be lighter.

On Sunday, temperatures are expected to be warmer, except for
the northwest and far west central, where a weak cold front
moving into the area will bring an increase in clouds and
possibly a light rain shower. Minimum humidities are expected to
be lowest over the south central portion of the state, while
winds will be strongest over the James River Valley and into
eastern North Dakota. The aforementioned cold front stalls over
central ND Sunday night, while what`s left of any light shower
activity dries up as a shortwave ridge pushes into the area.

On Monday a deepening upper level tough tracks across the
Northern Rockies and closes off along the Canadian Border
Monday night into Tuesday. This will bring increasing rain
chances from west to east Monday afternoon into Monday night,
then lingering Tuesday before exiting the area Tuesday evening.
Currently it looks like most areas will see medium to high
chances for rain. There may even be some thunder over the
southwest and south central Monday afternoon and Monday evening.
With the track of the mid-upper low, it currently looks like
western and northern portions of the CWA are favored for higher
precipitation amounts, compared to the southeast. Currently
ensemble guidance shows the probability of a quarter inch of
rain from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon ranges from
around 50 percent north central, to around 25 to 30 percent in
the far south central and into the southern James River Valley.
The probability of at least a tenth of an inch during this same
timeframe increases to greater than 70 percent over most of
western and central ND, but does drop to around 55 percent over
the southern James River Valley.

Tuesday will likely be the coldest day of the week with highs
ranging from the upper 40s north to the lower 60s south central.
The remainder of the work week will see a slow warming trend
with highs generally in the 50s to lower 60s. There will
probably be some hit and miss rain showers through the
remainder of the work week but resulting qpf amounts look to be
negligible at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected through 12Z TAF period across
western and central North Dakota. South to southwest winds today
mainly 5 to 15 knots central ND. Western TAF sites will be
around 15 to 20 knots this afternoon, with gusts to around 25
knots at KXWA. Winds diminish this evening and remains southerly
through the 12Z TAF period, except for a switch to a northerly
wind over far northwest ND, including KXWA right at the end of
the 12Z TAF period as a weak cold front moves into northwest
North Dakota.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH