106
FXUS63 KBIS 100008
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
608 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain will continue from south central to eastern North
  Dakota this evening, gradually diminishing overnight.

- Areas of fog, possibly dense, could develop across much of
  central and parts of western North Dakota tonight through
  Sunday morning.

- Near to above average temperatures continue through the coming
  workweek.

- The next opportunity for light rain comes Tuesday through
  early Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Rain continues to fall from the Standing Rock Reservation to
northern James River Valley early this evening, barely reaching the
Bismarck/Mandan area. The expectation is that rain will slowly
diminish and drift eastward through tonight. Meanwhile, there is
increasing confidence in fog developing across much of central and
parts of western North Dakota overnight. Confidence on how dense the
fog will be is slightly lower. But the only factor working against
dense fog is the presence of mid level clouds inhibiting radiational
cooling, which may not even matter given surface dewpoint
depressions are already near zero.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Large low pressure system across the Central Plains will
continue to bring rain showers across southern and eastern
portions of North Dakota. How far north this band of rain still
remains somewhat uncertain, although current radar trends
indicate this band may be only slightly west and southward of
the forecast this morning. Overall look for a band of rain from
about Hettinger to Bismarck to Carrington and eastward through
this evening, then diminishing tonight. Areas without rain will
have a dry and mild evening with mid to high clouds. As the low
moves eastward tonight precipitation will become less organized
and gradually diminish. Ridging aloft will diminish winds at the
surface. Lingering moisture from the rain combined with these
light winds could make for some patchy to areas of fog tonight
into Sunday morning. Have added fog mention into the forecast
and the HWO given some hi-res models and soundings showing its
potential. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s,
with the cooler temperatures coming in the west. Weak ridging
moves east Sunday. Mild temperatures in place will then be found
across much of the CWA with highs generally in the 50s. A weak
and mainly dry surface cold front will push through later in the
day. This will switch winds to the west, and could provide for
some breezy winds at times. Surface high then moves through
Sunday night into Monday. This will calm winds and clear skies.
Lows will generally be in the 20s, although perhaps some upper
teens are possible. Patchy to areas of fog may also return
during this time period, although confidence was not high enough
to include at this time.

Veterans Day is then cooler with more normal to perhaps
slightly below normal temperatures behind Sunday`s front.
Conditions will remain dry as a high pressure ridge moves
overhead. This ridge looks to be short lived as a trough and
cold front looks to move through sometime Tuesday into
Wednesday. This will bring our next chances for rain and perhaps
some breezy winds at times. Mild air looks to remain in the
area during this time and daytime highs in the 50s are forecast,
with lows generally in the 30s. Generally dry and mild
conditions are then forecast for late next workweek as flow
aloft returns to being zonal from a flattening ridge. Long term
guidance continues to hint at broad troughing moving into the
northern Plains as we head into next weekend, which would
represent the next opportunity for precipitation if this pattern
pans out. Cooler temperatures may also return, although this is
also dependent on how this pattern sets up.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Light rain will continue to fall across south central and eastern
North Dakota this evening, tapering off overnight. Low stratus and
fog with IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibility are likely to develop
across central and eastern North Dakota later this evening and
tonight, lasting through Sunday morning. KBIS and KJMS are the two
major terminals most likely to see these impacts. Winds will remain
light and variable overnight, but become gusty out of the west-
northwest Sunday afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Hollan