761
FXUS63 KBIS 222055
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
255 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered snow showers will continue through the evening.
  Little to no additional accumulation is expected.

- Temperatures are expected to be somewhat variable through the
  rest of the week, but will stay close to normal. Windy
  conditions are anticipated most days as well.

- More light snow is possible (30 to 50 percent chance) Thursday
  night through Friday morning. Snow amounts are expected to be
  an inch or less, except for the Turtle Mountains area where
  one to two inches of new snow is favored.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Breezy, snow showery, and cloudy conditions continue this
afternoon in the wake of a cold front and under cyclonic flow
aloft. Visibilities from falling and blowing snow have been
steadily improving through the afternoon so far, which is
expected as the front gets farther to our south. We are holding
a 15 to 25 percent chance of snow showers through the rest of
the afternoon and through the evening, before carrying a chance
of flurries overnight, as we typically see light snow linger
under these types of low stratus decks and northwest flow
aloft. Little to no new accumulation is expected. Temperatures
tonight will be quite chilly in the east, around 5 degrees
below zero, to five degrees above zero west.

We will finally see at least a little sunshine on Thursday as
low clouds scour out, with weaker winds but cooler temperatures,
as forecast highs are in the lower teens east to mid 20s
southwest. As broad troughing dominates the synoptic pattern
over most of the CONUS, another embedded shortwave will drop
south from the Canadian Prairies Thursday night into Friday,
bringing multiple frontal boundaries with it, ending with a more
potent cold front early Saturday. NBM POPs start in western
North Dakota Thursday evening, expanding east through the night
and into Friday, aligned with the nose of an upper jet that will
drift southeast through the day Friday. Although POPs beyond
Friday morning are low, we would not be surprised if light snow
/ flurries lingered through the entire day and evening
underneath the cyclonic flow aloft. Snow amounts are expected to
be low, with most areas having very little chance of exceeding
one inch. The one area with medium potential for more than an
inch is the Turtle Mountains area, where 1 to 2 inches of fresh
snowfall is a likely outcome.

Temperatures on Friday will be a bit warmer as low-level warm air
advection overspreads the region, with highs in the mid 20s to right
around freezing. The aforementioned cold front on Saturday morning
has a decent push of cold air advection with it, dropping highs back
into the teens on Saturday.

Blended guidance favors breezy to strong winds pretty much every day
Friday through next Tuesday, although the latest ECMWF EFI doesn`t
signal much in terms of winds being abnormally strong. Expect
winds sustained at 20 to 25 mph most of these days.

Ensemble cluster analysis is in good agreement on a broad ridge
building over western Canada to start next week, with a majority of
members advertising the ridge extending into the central Canadian
Prairies through at least the first half of the work week. Blended
guidance has high confidence in a warming trend, with forecast highs
at least 10 degrees above average (which are in the mid 20s).
Through most of the work week, there is generally a 20 to 30 percent
chance of highs reaching at least 40 degrees F in far southwest and
south central North Dakota. Chances for precipitation are low during
this period, although depending on the placement of the ridge axis
we could have a few weak waves move through that are low
predictability at this point. By the end of the week, there are
significant differences among clusters regarding the placement of
the ridge axis, with one scenario (15 percent chance) advertising
broad troughing instead that would bring a return of colder
temperatures to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1152 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Low VFR to MVFR ceilings extend across the entire area to start
the TAF period, with scattered snow showers along and behind a
cold front moving south. Breezy north-northwest winds are
accompanying the front, and with falling snow, reduced
visibilities are being reported, generally staying above 1 mile.
Expect snow to slowly taper off north to south through the
afternoon, but low confidence in timing of rising ceilings, as
some guidance has an additional push of low ceilings moving in
late in the period. Winds will gradually relax through the night
tonight, although will stay northwest around 10 knots through
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Jones