954
FXUS63 KBIS 070909
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
309 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today through the weekend, near to slightly above average
  temperatures are expected, with highs mainly in the upper 40s
  to upper 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s.

- Today and Sunday will be breezy, with westerly winds of 15 to
  20 mph.

- Saturday morning through Saturday night, there is a 30 to 60
  percent chance of light rain across central and eastern North
  Dakota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

This morning, the synoptic flow was beginning to split into a
northern and southern stream, with a deep closed low over the
Four Corners Region dominating the southern stream while the
northern stream was in the process of becoming broad ridging
over the northwest and north central CONUS. A modestly tight
pressure gradient existed behind yesterday`s system, with
somewhat breezy winds persisting through the night, especially
across northern and eastern counties. Low stratus was slowly
eroding from west to east, with cloud cover over the James River
Valley. Otherwise skies were mostly clear with the exception of
a few high clouds streaming in.

Today marks the first day of our seasonably mild pattern as upper
ridging begins to shift into the southern Canadian Prairies.
Although sunshine will be plentiful, breezy westerly winds will
continue through the day, with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph.
Highs will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Friday should be quite a pleasant day for November, with sunny
skies, lighter winds, and highs in the 50s as the ridge axis extends
across much of the northern CONUS. Cloud cover will begin to
increase late Friday as the aforementioned closed low starts lifting
northeast through the southern and central plains, with bands of
precipitation wrapping around the center of the low and extending
far enough north to bring chances of rain Saturday through Saturday
night. POPs are generally 30 to 60 percent across the south central
and east, expanding through the day Saturday before moving east
through the night.

With warmer temperatures (highs mainly in the 50s on Saturday), not
expecting any p-type concerns with this system, with only rain
expected. Latest NBM probabilities have generally a low chance (less
than 40 percent) of exceeding 0.10 inches of rain across central and
eastern North Dakota, with higher probabilities southeast to lower
probabilities northwest. The potential to exceed a quarter inch
of rain maxes out around 15 percent.

Sunday brings another day of highs in the 50s, with some lower 60s
possible in southwest North Dakota. West to southwest winds on the
backside of the stacked low will be a bit breezy, but expecting
precipitation chances to end early on Sunday.

The broad upper air pattern is favored to transition to more of a
troughing regime, although timing and amplitude of any troughs is
still murky. Right now, it looks like a front comes through to start
the week, with temperatures slightly cooler on Monday. Ensemble
consensus then favors a stronger wave moving through Tuesday into
Wednesday, bringing breezy winds and widespread 15 to 30 percent
chances of mainly rain, but potentially a rain-snow mix depending on
timing. Although NBM temperatures have increasing spread by this
point, still good confidence in cooler highs by Wednesday, with the
deterministic NBM advertising highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

All terminals will be VFR by early Thursday morning. KJMS will see
lingering Mvfr-IFR cigs for a few more hours. Winds will be
west/southwesterly through the 06Z period, with a few higher gusts
during the day Thursday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...NH