047
FXUS63 KBIS 150544
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1144 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above average temperatures continue through Friday.

- Temperatures trend cooler this weekend, with chances (about 40
  to 80 percent) for rain, mixed with some snow west into parts
  of central, late Friday night through Saturday night.

- Temperatures continue to trend cooler next week, along chances
  for rain/snow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1144 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Remaining fog and low-level stratus over the James River Valley
is dissipating and presently only persists over eastern Foster
and Stutsman counties. This fog and low-level stratus looks
likely to fully dissipate within the forecast area over the next
hour or two. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 858 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Fog and low stratus have been very slow to dissipate over
eastern portions of the James River Valley this evening. While
we are starting to see some erosion from south to north, we
decided to go ahead an put an SPS out for the next four hours as
visibility has been below a half mile at times at Jamestown and
Carrington. Otherwise, no major changes were needed for this
update.

UPDATE
Issued at 533 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

We did see a few raindrops over the last hour in Minot with the
radar echoes moving across the north. Thus we did extend mention
of slight chance PoPs across the north central and northeast for
another couple of hours. Otherwise, no major changes were needed
for this update. Just blended in the latest observations to the
going forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Stubborn low stratus continues to linger in the James River
Valley this afternoon. Slight visibility reductions are
possible under low stratus. Stratus continues to slowly burn off
and shrink from day time heating. A warm front continues to
lift through the region bringing forth warm weather across the
state. Temperatures have warmed into the 60s in the southwest
and 50s across much of the state. The James River Vally has been
stuck in the 30s due to the low stratus. A weak upper level
wave continues to move across the region causing a few light
returns on RADAR resulting in rain. Tonight temperatures are
forecast to drop down into the 20s to lower 30s. High
temperatures tomorrow are forecast to warm back into the 50s
across the state. This would be another day with high
temperatures 10 degrees above normal while persistent dry
conditions continue.

A pattern change will begin this weekend as a shortwave trough
digs across the Northern Plains. This upper level system will
bring rain to portions of western and central North Dakota. The
area with the highest likelihood for rain is the northwest with
a 70-90 percent chance. While the southwest to the northeast
has a 40-60 percent chance of precipitation. The southeast has
the lowest probability for precipitation. Precipitation will
likely start out as rain transitioning to snow Saturday evening
as cooler air wraps around the low. Precipitation accumulations
remain on the lower end with a 60 percent chance of 0.25 inches
of rain in the northwest.

Temperatures will begin to trend down Saturday as the
aforementioned upper low moves through region. High
temperatures in the 30s northwest where the precipitation is
while the southeast could warm into the lower 50s. Temperatures
will slightly warm back up Sunday and Monday as a weak amplitude
ridge passes over head. Temperatures could remain 5 to 10
degrees above normal.

An upper level low is forecast to move across the plains next
week. This upper level lows track has shifted every run
resulting in low confidence on location and timing. Today the
upper low has shifted a bit further west and slowed down which
could result in precipitation across portions of North Dakota.
Do to the uncertainty of the upper low track, it has been hard
to pin multiple scenarios. The 12Z ensembles probability for
snow has increased across the region for snow accumulations but
significant accumulations remain low. The NBM currently has a 20
percent chance of 4 inches of snow or greater. One thing we
know about this system it will bring some colder conditions
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Stratus and patchy dense fog are slowly eroding from south to north
and west to east over the James River Valley late this evening.
Most guidance suggests the clouds and fog should be on their
way out over the next hour or so. Until then, LIFR to IFR
ceilings and visibility readings are possible at KJMS.
Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions through the period with
generally light winds. The southwest could see some breezier
winds out of the east by later in the afternoon on Friday,
potentially impacting KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Telken