Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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949 FXUS63 KBIS 061421 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 921 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds will continue to diminish this morning, becoming light and variable by the afternoon and evening hours. - Low temperatures this morning may be near to slightly below freezing, especially across portions of the southwest and northwest. - Highs today will generally be in the 60s, before we warm back into the mid 70s and 80s by Wednesday and Thursday. Relatively light winds and dry conditions can be expected through the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 920 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 The forecast looks to be in good shape and much quieter this morning than yesterday. No major changes were needed for this update as winds continue to relax. Just blended in the latest observations to the going forecast. UPDATE Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Winds continue to decrease dramatically this morning. The main change with this forecast update was dropping the wind speeds down further in the James River Valley. The clouds in the James River Valley have also since dissipated, so the cloud coverage was adjusted accordingly. Temperatures this morning remain mostly in the 30s, with a few reports of temperatures below 30 in Slope, Bowman, and Williams counties. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 The large, vertically stacked low that brought us our winds the past 48 hours continues to move east into Ontario, with surface high pressure sliding into the western portions of the state this morning. As a result, winds are forecast to continue decreasing through the day today, with much of the area seeing light and variable conditions by this afternoon and evening. At the moment, some lingering gusty northwesterlies are present from the Turtle Mountain area south through the James River Valley, with some continued reports of wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range. The Wind Advisories that were previously in effect have been cancelled, as winds have largely fallen below advisory criteria in these areas. Otherwise, with the exception of some low stratus associated with the low pressure system present across the north central and James River Valley, conditions are generally clear. Lows this morning will largely fall into the low to mid 30s, with some upper 20s possible in the usual cold corridors in the southwest and northwest. From today onward through the extended period, the forecast looks to remain fairly consistent, with relatively dry conditions, warming temperatures, and generally light winds expected. As the aforementioned stacked low and associated trough continue to exit the region, a rather wide and flat midlevel ridge over the western CONUS is expected to build eastward over the next few days. As this ridge builds in, a gradual warming trend will be expected, with very low spreads in NBM temperatures through Thursday, suggesting very high confidence in these warming temperatures. Highs today will range from the lower 60s to upper 60s, before temperatures gradually rise into the mid 70s to mid 80s by Thursday. The warmest temperatures will generally be in the southwest and south central during this time. Surface high pressure will move through the region below this ridge, helping keep the wind speeds down and the cloud coverage low. While minimum relative humidity values will be pretty low, especially in the southwest (with values as low as 15-20%), the reduced wind speeds will help reduce the risk for critical fire weather. Overnight lows through the work week (with the exception of this morning) will stay within the upper 30s and 40s. Additionally, there is the potential for some near surface smoke later tonight in our far southwest, with the most recent HRRR near surface smoke model hinting at some smoke intrusion down there. At the moment, confidence is too low to include anything in the grids just yet. Long range guidance tentatively suggests a brief cooling trend this weekend, with the midlevel ridge beginning to flatten while a trough passes across it`s apex, staying well to the north of the International Border. While the ridge will still influence North Dakota, high temperatures may decrease into the low to mid 60s by Saturday. A shortwave trough passing through the flow may also provide enough energy for a brief shot of precipitation across the area as well, however these chances are very low at the moment given the low confidence in the exact position of this shortwave. NBM temperature spreads increase during this time, though the general trend of a decrease in highs through the weekend is present. Afterwards, temperatures may warm back up as the ridge reestablishes itself next work week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 VFR conditions are present across all terminals and will prevail through the TAF period. Generally westerly winds continue to decrease across the area, becoming light and variable late this morning into the early afternoon hours. Clear skies will prevail through the daytime hours, with some high clouds arriving late in the evening. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...ZH DISCUSSION...Besson AVIATION...Besson