Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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026
FXUS63 KBIS 191520
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
920 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Life threatening wind chills continue today through Tuesday
  morning, coldest tonight through Monday morning (as low as 55
  below zero).

- After the MLK holiday weekend, temperatures will trend warmer
  (back to near or above normal) Tuesday through the remainder
  of next week. However, it will remain breezy to windy
  throughout the week.

- There is a 30 to 60 percent chance of light snow Tuesday night
  through Wednesday night. Active weather pattern continues into
  next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Widespread dangerous to life threatening wind chills continue
across all of western and central North Dakota this morning. No
major changes were needed for this forecast update other than
to blend in the latest observations.

UPDATE
Issued at 619 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

No changes to the forecast. See below for discussion. Updated
Aviation discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Currently, strong north/northwest flow aloft continues over the
Northern Plains with an upper level low over Hudson Bay, sharp
upper ridge over the N American West Coast, and a large scale
upper level trough over much of the North American continent.
Large area of surface high pressure across the Lee of the
Alberta Rockies, with a sfc ridge extending south/southeast
across northern Montana and across the western Dakotas. This
results in persistent pressure rises/gradient forcing across the
Northern Plains to maintain a steady west/northwest breeze.
Coupled with temperatures ranging from -10 to -20, resultant
wind chills early this morning are ranging from -30 to -50
across western and central North Dakota. Thus, cold weather
headlines remain valid as is with this product issuance.

Subzero highs today most areas with an Arctic airmass firmly in
place across the region. Northwest and north central ND will be
lucky to `warm` to 10 below this afternoon. Winds will again
become breezy, maintaining very low wind chills area wide. Yet
another surge of Arctic air/CAA will push south into the
Northern Plains later today and tonight, as another embedded
impulse rotates southward into the state. This wave will usher
in the core of the Arctic airmass into the region, and will
result in the coldest period of this Arctic outbreak tonight
through Monday night. This is when overnight lows will be in the
15 below to 30 below range both tonight and Mon night, with
highs on Monday even colder than today, 5-10 below south and
15-19 below north. Coupled with these very cold temperatures, a
steady northwest breeze continues, and will result in extremely
cold wind chill and life threatening conditions. The
expectation is for the Extreme Cold warning to be expanded area
wide tonight into Monday, likely during the day shift this Sun
afternoon. We`re not reaching warning criteria this morning
southwest, so this is why we will defer the upgrade.

Pattern change is still expected to take place starting on
Tuesday, when the upper trough moves farther east into the
eastern CONUS and a progressive northwest flow pattern develops
over the region. As we mix in the warmer air Tuesday, Tue
morning lows in the -15 to -30 range will warm quickly into the
teens above east and 20s west during the day. This moderation
in temperatures will be maintained for much of the week. In
addition, precipitation chances return later Tuesday and
especially Tue night through Wednesday, as a clipper system/mid
level trough move southeast across North Dakota. NBM POPs
continue to increase with this wave, now maxing out at 40-60
percent during the day Wed. QPF not looking impressive, but
maybe an inch of snow or so looks possible. Could be an
interesting period with gusty winds likely accompanying snow
chances.

Thereafter, ensembles and NBM generally support a continued
northwest flow pattern over the north central CONUS through the
rest of the week and following weekend. This pattern would
support continued near average temperatures (some periods
cooler, some warmer) and periodic precipitation chances
associated with any wave/weather disturbance near our region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the 12Z forecast period.
Scattered clouds at MVFR heights may redevelop across central
and eastern North Dakota this afternoon, but prevailing
categorical restrictions are unlikely. West-northwest winds will
remain around 10-20 kts through the forecast period, with
higher gusts Sunday afternoon and for later Sunday night.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
NDZ031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH