Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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026 FXUS63 KBIS 191520 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 920 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Life threatening wind chills continue today through Tuesday morning, coldest tonight through Monday morning (as low as 55 below zero). - After the MLK holiday weekend, temperatures will trend warmer (back to near or above normal) Tuesday through the remainder of next week. However, it will remain breezy to windy throughout the week. - There is a 30 to 60 percent chance of light snow Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Active weather pattern continues into next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 918 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Widespread dangerous to life threatening wind chills continue across all of western and central North Dakota this morning. No major changes were needed for this forecast update other than to blend in the latest observations. UPDATE Issued at 619 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 No changes to the forecast. See below for discussion. Updated Aviation discussion below. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Currently, strong north/northwest flow aloft continues over the Northern Plains with an upper level low over Hudson Bay, sharp upper ridge over the N American West Coast, and a large scale upper level trough over much of the North American continent. Large area of surface high pressure across the Lee of the Alberta Rockies, with a sfc ridge extending south/southeast across northern Montana and across the western Dakotas. This results in persistent pressure rises/gradient forcing across the Northern Plains to maintain a steady west/northwest breeze. Coupled with temperatures ranging from -10 to -20, resultant wind chills early this morning are ranging from -30 to -50 across western and central North Dakota. Thus, cold weather headlines remain valid as is with this product issuance. Subzero highs today most areas with an Arctic airmass firmly in place across the region. Northwest and north central ND will be lucky to `warm` to 10 below this afternoon. Winds will again become breezy, maintaining very low wind chills area wide. Yet another surge of Arctic air/CAA will push south into the Northern Plains later today and tonight, as another embedded impulse rotates southward into the state. This wave will usher in the core of the Arctic airmass into the region, and will result in the coldest period of this Arctic outbreak tonight through Monday night. This is when overnight lows will be in the 15 below to 30 below range both tonight and Mon night, with highs on Monday even colder than today, 5-10 below south and 15-19 below north. Coupled with these very cold temperatures, a steady northwest breeze continues, and will result in extremely cold wind chill and life threatening conditions. The expectation is for the Extreme Cold warning to be expanded area wide tonight into Monday, likely during the day shift this Sun afternoon. We`re not reaching warning criteria this morning southwest, so this is why we will defer the upgrade. Pattern change is still expected to take place starting on Tuesday, when the upper trough moves farther east into the eastern CONUS and a progressive northwest flow pattern develops over the region. As we mix in the warmer air Tuesday, Tue morning lows in the -15 to -30 range will warm quickly into the teens above east and 20s west during the day. This moderation in temperatures will be maintained for much of the week. In addition, precipitation chances return later Tuesday and especially Tue night through Wednesday, as a clipper system/mid level trough move southeast across North Dakota. NBM POPs continue to increase with this wave, now maxing out at 40-60 percent during the day Wed. QPF not looking impressive, but maybe an inch of snow or so looks possible. Could be an interesting period with gusty winds likely accompanying snow chances. Thereafter, ensembles and NBM generally support a continued northwest flow pattern over the north central CONUS through the rest of the week and following weekend. This pattern would support continued near average temperatures (some periods cooler, some warmer) and periodic precipitation chances associated with any wave/weather disturbance near our region. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 619 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the 12Z forecast period. Scattered clouds at MVFR heights may redevelop across central and eastern North Dakota this afternoon, but prevailing categorical restrictions are unlikely. West-northwest winds will remain around 10-20 kts through the forecast period, with higher gusts Sunday afternoon and for later Sunday night. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051. Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for NDZ031>034-040>045. && $$ UPDATE...ZH DISCUSSION...NH AVIATION...NH