490
FXUS61 KBGM 081944
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
244 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow will continue through Thursday across
portions of central New York as cold Canadian air plunges into the
region. Temperatures will remain well below normal into Friday,
with windchill values in the negative single to positive single
digits. Dry weather returns for Friday with seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
945 AM Update...

Widespread lake effect snow showers encompass much of CNY and
the northern Tier of PA late this morning. PoPs were expanded
farther south across the Northern Tier of PA into early this
afternoon and also increased across CNY, expanding likely and
categorical PoPs south into the Southern Tier. There is some
uncertainty with regards to the southern extend of the snow
showers through the afternoon as the CAMs are not handling the
lake effect well, but with a multi lake connection and increase
in moisture this afternoon, it will be closely monitored for
possible expansion again. There continue to be embedded heavier
snow bands that can reduce visibility to less than one mile at
times, in particular across portions of Broome, Tioga,
Susquehanna and northern Wayne counties. The Winter Weather
Advisory for Tioga and Broome Counties has been extended as of
this update until 4 PM this afternoon with the persistent snow
showers and reduced visibility. An additional two inches of
snow is possible, especially over northern portions of the
counties.


545 AM Update...

Lake effect snow continues as expected. The forecast remains on
track from the previous package.

245 AM Update...

Lake effect snow showers continue across the region tonight.
Band intensity has decreased over the past couple of hours as we
lost some upstream moisture connection to the Georgian Bay.
Another 1-3 inches is expected to fall through this morning
across counties currently in the Winter Weather Advisory. Snow
is expected to remain light into the afternoon hours across the
area.
A shortwave will dive into the region from the north later this
afternoon, increasing the boundary layer moisture saturation in
the DGZ across CNY. Snow band intensity will increase as omega
and depth of moisture in the DGZ surges. An additional 2-6
inches of very dry and fluffy snow is expected to fall across
counties in the advisory, with the larger totals expected over
higher elevations of S Cayuga, Onondaga, Madison and Cortland
counties. Given the narrow and transient nature of the
snowbands, it is hard to pin down exactly where the highest
totals will be, but given the upslope flow and proximity to the
lakes, the aforementioned areas have the best chance at
attaining these snowfall amounts.

Lake effect snow will hang around into Thursday afternoon. Flow
will become more northerly, weakening and dissipating the
snowbands as the day progresses.

Temperatures will be well below normal normal today and tomorrow
as NW flow continues CAA across the region. The coldest day this
week will be today, with highs remaining in the mid to upper
teens and overnight lows falling into the upper single digits to
mid teens. Strong winds tonight will push wind chills into the
negative single digits across CNY and the Northern Tier. Higher
elevations of Luzerne, Lackawanna, Southern Wayne and Pike
counties will see windchills fall down to -11F, necessitating a
Cold Weather Advisory for the aforementioned counties from 7pm
to 11am Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
240 PM Update:

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will be in control
of our weather for Friday, which will bring precipitation-free
weather. With a relatively light wind flow pattern, lake effect
clouds look to be minimized and therefore most of the area will
likely see at least partial sunshine, with parts of the
Poconos-Catskills seeing mostly sunny skies. Later in the day,
clouds will increase ahead of the next system Temperatures will
remain a bit below normal with highs in the 20s.

Friday night into Saturday, a northern stream trough of low
pressure will be dipping into the region. There will also be a
southern stream of energy, but the two will phase together well
off the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England coast. If these two
streams of energy would have phased sooner and the trough could
have become more negatively tilted, a significant storm could
have developed, but this does not look likely at this point. The
end result will likely be a period of mainly light snow with a
general 1-3 inches of snow, mainly due to high snow-to-liquid
ratios.

By Saturday afternoon, the low pressure system will be departing
to the east and a west-northwesterly flow will be developing. As
a result, scattered lake effect snow showers are expected to
develop for Central NY and persist through Saturday night.
Elsewhere, a general drying trend will be occurring with partly
to mostly cloudy skies (more clearing for Northeast PA as is
typical).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
240 PM Update:

The lake effect snow shower activity looks to be rather short-
lived as an upper level ridge and surface high pressure moves in
for Sunday. There could still be a few lake effect snow showers
Sunday morning, but otherwise Sunday will be mainly
precipitation-free with mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies.
High temperatures are expected to be in the 20s once again.

A clipper system may then move through the area sometime in the
Monday/Tuesday timeframe and bring some more light snow to the
area, but timing is uncertain this far out. Then behind this
system, some lake effect snow showers will be possible on
Wednesday along with colder air (highs only in the mid teens to
lower 20s).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Gusty NW winds and widespread lake effect snow showers will
continue through much of the TAF period for the NY terminals
primarily with MVFR/Fuel Alt conditions. Snow bands have
occasionally pulsed up in intensity leading to IFR or worse
conditions for a time and that remains possible at least through
early this evening, especially for RME, SYR, ITH and BGM. As an
increase in moisture continues to push down from the north, RME
is expected to stay mainly IFR through early tomorrow morning
with SYR following suit this evening. Snow showers are expected
to taper off toward tomorrow afternoon, but restrictions can
linger for the NY terminals.

IFR conditions cannot be ruled out later tonight at ITH and
BGM, but confidence remains low to include at these terminals.

AVP is expected to stay mainly VFR throughout the TAF period.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Turning mainly VFR.

Friday and Saturday...Potential for widespread light snow with
associated restrictions.

Sunday...Lingering lake effect snow showers possible, mainly for
Central NY terminals.

Monday...Snow showers possible and associated restrictions as a
clipper system approaches.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for PAZ044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for NYZ016>018-
     025-036-044-045.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ055-056.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...DK/JTC
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...DK/JTC