305
FXUS61 KBGM 161743
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
143 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow is becoming lighter and will end this evening.
Tomorrow will be still a bit cool but sunny skies are expected
region wide with winds becoming lighter as high pressure builds
in. Friday into Saturday will continue to see warming weather
though unsettled weather returns this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
145 PM Update...

Cold air advection over Lake Ontario continues to lead to late
season lake effect snow. Temperatures are slowly creeping up at
the surface with the solar heating despite 850 mb temperatures
still slowly dropping. Webcams around the Finger Lakes into CNY
show the snow that fell this morning is melting and with the
coldest air aloft moving east of the region later this
afternoon, the winter weather advisories ending time was brought
up to 2 pm rather than 8pm.

Tonight, despite the continued NW flow, warmer temperatures at
850 mb begin to advect in with the lake effect snow coming to an
end shortly after sunset. Temperatures remain cold at the
surface but low clouds and wind keeps the boundary layer mixed
so we wont have too much radiational cooling to plunge lows into
the low 20s.

High pressure builds in tomorrow with skies quickly clearing
out after sunrise. With full sun, temperatures will likely warm
more than modeled so the NBM 90th was used for day time
temperatures. Forecast soundings show a subsidence inversion
above the boundary layer so that means the sun would only have
to heat the lowest 4000 to 6000 feet rather then if we had deep,
steep lapse rates where it would take a lot more heating
through a deeper atmosphere to get a temperature increase. There
is also a very dry layer above the boundary layer as well so as
deeper mixing occurs, that dry air will mix into the boundary
layer so dew points were lowered well below most models. The
Canadian regional had the lowest dew points so that was used and
then dew points lowered a few more degrees based on potential
mixing heights in bufkit.

The surface high moves overhead tomorrow night and with clear
skies initially and calm winds, radiational cooling will drop
temperatures quickly after sunset with the temperature blend
going from near the 90th percentile an hour before sunset to a
mix of the mean and 10th percentile a few hours after sunset.
Mid and high clouds begin to move in around midnight and slows
the cooling and may help stabilize temperatures as warm air
advection begins aloft. Still, tomorrow night may be colder than
tonight given the clear skies and light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM Update:

High pressure will depart the area Thursday night as a warm
front begins to approach the area. Clear skies will be present
Thursday evening before some higher clouds begin to increase
late Thursday night/early Friday morning. The initial clear
skies and light winds will set the stage for decent radiational
cooling conditions and therefore low temperatures are expected
to be in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

By Friday, a warm front will be pushing through the region,
which will allow for some scattered rain showers to develop by
the late morning and especially by the afternoon. With this
warm front passage, it will be warmer on Friday with highs in
the upper 50s to mid 60s. Weak elevated instability enters the
picture by Friday evening, to present a slight chance of
embedded thunderstorms as well. Temperatures Friday night will
likely remain nearly steady in the lower 50s to lower 60s.

Our region will be in the warm sector on Saturday with the warm
front located well to the north and a cold front approaching
from the west. This cold front will spark some additional
scattered showers and perhaps a couple thunderstorms during the
day on Saturday. Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the
lower 60s to mid 70s, but this is highly dependent on the timing
of the frontal passage. An earlier passage would allow cooler
air to quickly filter in, while a later passage would allow
temperatures to surge well into the 70s for most of the area.

Drier air moves in Saturday night behind the departing cold
front, which will allow for any remaining rain showers to
gradually end. This will also allow cooler air to filter in,
with lows in Central NY expected to be in the mid 30s to lower
40s. Lows will be in the lower 40s to near 50 across much of
Northeast PA since the cold front likely lingering in the
vicinity of that region before moving east by daybreak Sunday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 AM Update:

Somewhat cooler air will be present on Sunday behind the cold
front with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Most of the model
guidance brings dry conditions to the area with upper level
ridging and surface high pressure moving in, but the GFS brings
in additional scattered rain showers during the afternoon with a
quicker moving trough moving in from the Midwest. Right now
this looks like the outlier, so stuck with the NBM which keeps
PoPs out of most of the area.

The above mentioned trough brings a greater chance for scattered
rain showers to the area on Monday, but with this being 5 days
away, PoPs were capped at low-end chance. Some lingering rain
showers will be possible on Tuesday, but a quicker exit of the
trough could mean conditions dry out on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lake effect snow continues with MVFR restrictions expected
associated with the showers through the early evening at BGM,
ITH, SYR, and RME. Dry air moving in will raise cigs tonight
with all terminals becoming VFR by 12Z tomorrow. Remaining VFR
cigs scatter out tomorrow morning with sunny skies expected at
all terminals by 15Z.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Likely VFR.

Friday...Afternoon showers possible in NY along with associated
restrictions.

Saturday...Chance (30% to 50%) of showers and thunderstorms
with associated restrictions, mainly in NY.

Sunday into Monday...Low chance (<30%) of showers and any
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ009.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...AJG