249
FXUS61 KBGM 211052
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
652 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and warmer weather is expected through the start of the
weekend. A cold front will bring the next chance for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday. Showers then linger into
next week and temperatures trend cooler.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
     Key Messages...

- Drier conditions and warming temperatures through Saturday
- Cold front brings showers and thunderstorms to the region
  Saturday night and Sunday
- Rain showers linger into next week; temperatures trend cooler

     Discussion...

Lingering light showers and drizzle will end early this
morning. With the added moisture, patchy fog has also developed
and should clear up by around sunrise. Skies will be slow to
clear today so while some may see some sunshine, others will be
stuck under the clouds until this evening. Temperatures will
climb into the 70s today. Hurricane Erin is expected to turn out
to sea tonight as it nears the NJ coast. While Erin is a fairly
large storm, no impacts are expected from this system as the
outer bands of rain and winds will not extend much to the west.
With skies eventually becoming clear tonight, light winds, and
added moisture from the yesterday`s rain, conditions will be
favorable for patchy, valley fog tonight. Temperatures will dip
into the 40s and 50s.

High pressure will keep conditions quiet through the first half of
the weekend. Temperatures will trend warmer with highs in the 70s
and low 80s on Friday and then 80s on Saturday. Nightly temperatures
follow a similar trend with lows of 50s on Friday and a mix of 50s
and 60s on Saturday. Skies will stay clear through at least Saturday
morning. Then sky cover increases during the afternoon as a cold
front approaches and high pressure drifts eastward.

The aforementioned cold front moves in by late Saturday night and
slowly moves through the region Sunday and Sunday night. This front
will bring the next chance for widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms. At this time, models have some instability and modest
shear, enough to support organized convection but this all depends
on the timing of the front. WPC has the entire region in a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall for Sunday. PWATs are generally less
than 1.5 inches which is below 2 standard deviations when looking at
PWAT anomalies. However, there is a wide range of precipitation
accumulation between ensemble guidance with the GEFS much drier than
the EPS. With the quieter weather ahead, this will be the next
system worth monitoring and details will become more clear as we
near the weekend.

Rain showers will continue early next week as multiple waves ride
along a broad upper trough that will extend over the eastern half of
the country. Weak instability and fairly strong shear will be enough
to support some thunderstorms on Monday. As a cooler air mass drops
in, lake enhanced rain showers will then be possible through midweek
as the trough continues to swing through. Temperatures will trend
cooler and be below normal early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
645 AM Update

Ample low level moisture remains trapped in the lower levels of
the atmosphere early this morning. This is creating widespread
MVFR Fuel Alt CIGS, with IFR/LIFR also being observed at BGM,
in fog. RME and SYR are forecast to remain generally VFR now.

Gradual improvement is expected later on this morning, with BGM,
ITH, AVP and ELM coming up to MVFR by around 16-18z...and
SYR/RME likely scattering out and improving further heading into
the mid to late afternoon hours.

Conditions are likely to improve to VFR at BGM and ITH by
18-19z, and ELM/AVP by 21z, as clouds scattered out from NE to
SW. VFR conditions are then expected areawide for the evening
hours, and into the overnight. Will have to watch for areas of fog
forming under high pressure, clear skies and light winds later
tonight into early Friday morning. For now, have a mention of
fog/mist at ELM and BGM where guidance was showing the greatest
potential.

Wind will be steady east-northeast up to 10 kts this morning and
early afternoon...before gradually shifting around to more
north-northeast later in the day. Winds gradually diminish,
under 5 kts by sunset and becoming variable.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR. Early morning fog likely at ELM and perhaps
BGM.

Saturday...Mainly VFR. Low chance for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night.

Sunday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring
occasional restrictions.

Monday...Potential lingering restrictions from rain showers and
thunderstorms in the morning.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/BTL
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...MJM