775
FXUS61 KBGM 061357
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
957 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolate to scattered rain showers expected until early this
afternoon. A brief break precipitation is expected this
afternoon through evening, however later tonight some light
snow moves through area. Light snow accumulations will be
possible overnight from the Southern Tier on southward, especially
in higher elevations and on elevated surfaces. Monday sees
another lull in precipitation before a strong late season cold
front moves through in the late afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

930 AM Update...

Made some minor adjustments to PoP based on the latest RADAR and
CAMs. Isolated to scattered rain showers are expected to
continue a little longer than previously forecast, with a lull
in precipitation coming this afternoon into this evening.

645 AM Update...

Minor updates to chances of precipitation with less rain over
CNY and more widespread rain in NEPA. Temperatures adjusted to
match observations and trends.

400 AM Update...

A cold front has moved through the region this morning with
weak cold air advection through the day. Temperatures will
struggle to warm up today with the falling 850 mb temperatures
as well as cloud cover. North of the Southern Tier, there could
be some sun this afternoon as forecast soundings show the moist
layer getting fairly thin and with solar heating, may be just
enough mixing to clear the skies for a bit.

Tonight, a subtle 500 mb shortwave moves into the Northeast
bringing another round of precipitation. Recent trends in
towards a flatter wave and a little farther south. There is
enough cold air in place and with the precipitation occurring
overnight, snow is the likely ptype. With the flatter wave, the
favorable dynamics for snow banding is less likely so snowfall
rates are expected to be on the lighter side, likely a half inch
per hour or less. Snow amounts were also shifted south so the
Southern Tier, Catskills, and NEPA are the areas that will see
some light snow accumulations tonight.

Monday will have a stronger shortwave moving into the Great
Lakes region with a surface low deepening. This will help shift
winds SW during the day and bring in some slightly warmer air
ahead of it. Daytime highs were raised a few degrees with the
slower progression of the shortwave to the east and the increase
in warm air advection. A strong late season cold front begins
to move in from the west late in the day with accompanying snow
squalls. With the later timing of the cold front, it is less
likely that there will be any impacts to the Monday evening
commute for anywhere in our forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM Update...

A potent cold front will be moving into our area Monday evening
which will usher in some much colder, more winter-like air for
mid week. As the cold front moves in, a robust band of mostly
snow showers will sweep across the CWA from west to east during
the evening. With strong low level lapse rates on the order of
7.5-8.5 C/km, pressure drops of a couple of millibars ahead of
the boundary, and upwards of about 75 J/kg of MUCAPE, especially
around the eastern Finger Lakes up through the western Mohawk
Valley, the ingredients are there for possible snow squalls to
develop. The timing for these snow showers and squalls looks to
be mostly after 8PM, but could arrive over western portions of
the CWA as early as 5-6PM and impact the evening commute, so
there is still some uncertainty.

In the wake of the cold front, 850mb temperatures will fall
quickly Monday night as the flow becomes northwesterly,
bottoming out around -15C to -16C by Tuesday morning. As the low
pressure area associated with the front slowly moves east just
north of the U.S./Canadian border over southern Quebec into
Tuesday, this will enhance the northwest flow off the Great
Lakes and add in some wrap around moisture as well. As a result,
lake effect snow showers are expected from late Monday night
into Tuesday. With the NBM not capturing the lake effect well,
PoPs were increased across CNY down into the Southern Tier and
even into the Catskills during this time. Winds were also
increased from the NBM during this time with a strong pressure
gradient setting up which can lead to possible gusts of 30 to 40
mph Tuesdsay.

With the lingering upper trough still overhead Tuesday night,
additional scattered snow showers are possible across CNY, but
as the flow becomes more westerly, this activity is expected to
start to diminish and what remains becomes more concentrated
toward the NYS Thruway corridor. Any snow shower or flurries is
expected to come to an end by early Wednesday and sunshine mixes
with some clouds as high pressure builds in overhead along with
weak ridging aloft. High pressure is expected to keep
conditions dry through at least the evening hours Wednesday
night.

Temperature-wise, lows Monday night will drop into the low and
mid 20s, but factoring in the wind, it will feel like it`s in
the teens and even the single digits in some places by early
Tuesday morning. Highs Tuesday will generally range from the
upper 20s to the mid 30s, with the Wyoming and Delaware River
Valley of NE PA a little warmer in the upper 30s to around 40
degrees. Lows Tuesday night fall back into the low and mid 20s,
but there will be less wind. Wednesday`s highs will remain below
average in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 AM Update...

An upper trough will be digging south across the central U.S.
and Mississippi River Valley Wednesday night and a surface low
is expected to form around the Ohio Valley or southern Great
Lakes by early Thursday. This low will slowly track toward our
area and lead to the chance of mostly rain Thursday, Thursday
night and even into Friday. There can be some wet snow that
mixes in initially Thursday especially in the higher terrain as
temperatures at the onset of precipitation look to be in the
30s combined with some evaporative cooling. High temperatures
Thursday do rise into the upper 40s and low 50s.

Friday and beyond is expected to remain unsettled but there is
some uncertainty with regards to timing, track and intensity of
the players involved. A deeper trough will dig south across the
eastern U.S. reaching the Gulf Coast region Friday into Friday
night. There`s relative agreement that a coastal low forms along
a boundary and lifts north bringing plenty of moisture with it
but differ in timing of development and track. This could lead
to a chance for rain later Friday night into Saturday, or the
bulk of the precipitation could stay off the coast. At the same
time, a shortwave trough looks to drop down across the northern
Great Lakes and swing toward the Northeast, so this could be
another factor in the track of the coastal low and at the very
least lead to a chance of showers itself into the start of the
weekend. High temperatures Friday into the weekend are expected
to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rain will come to an end by mid morning with VFR conditions
developing by 17Z at all terminals. Mainly VFR conditions
through this afternoon before precipitation begins to move back
in after 0Z. AVP and BGM have the best chances of precipitation
with lower risk farther to the NW. AVP has a more challenging
precipitation type forecast with some warm air aloft so went
with a wintry mix and MVFR vis just in case there is less snow
mixing in. BGM will have all snow and could be briefly heavy so
a prob30 group was added to account for possible IFR vis at
times.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Scattered rain and snow showers may
bring occasional restrictions.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with high pressure overhead.

Thursday...Potential rain showers with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...AJG