368
FXUS61 KBGM 301521
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1121 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes through today with scattered severe
thunderstorms, especially in Northeast Pennsylvania and from
the Interstate 88 corridor southward in New York. Things shift
mainly east by early evening, with dry weather Monday and
Tuesday as high pressure takes over.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1120 AM Update...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for Northeast PA and Sullivan
County NY until 7 PM. Current severe line of storms has produced
numerous damage reports, especially into Sullivan County/Roscoe
area very recently.

Previous discussion...
Already some activity this morning with a line of
showers/storms persisting along an outflow boundary from
overnight convection. As heating continues, new cells will be
able to harness building instability and a fair amount of shear
late morning through afternoon, which has somewhat increased our
chances for scattered severe thunderstorms. The Storm
Prediction Center has placed most of Northeast PA, and counties
along/south of the I-88 Corridor into a Slight Risk. Damaging
wind gusts remain the primary threat, but isolated hail,
localized heavy rain/flooding, and even a brief tornado cannot
be totally ruled out. Convective-allowing models have been
generally a few hours behind what occurred overnight into this
morning, yet still some of them manage to generate additional
clusters or line segments this afternoon. Risk will push mainly
east of our area by 7 PM.

High pressure will build in behind the front tonight, however
upper trough remains overhead and some lake enhanced rain
showers will be possible across Central NY into Monday morning.
Otherwise, Monday looks mostly dry with pleasant temperatures in
the low 70s for highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM Update...

Surface high pressure is in control during this period with the
first half of the week staying dry. Upper level trough is slow to
move out with northwest flow remaining in place Monday night. Clear
skies and light winds will make it a favorable night for radiational
cooling allowing temperatures to fall into the upper 40s to low 50s.
Upper level ridge moves in on Tuesday with surface high centering
over our region. Southerly flow returns with temperatures climbing
into the upper 70s to the low 80s during the day. Temperatures are
more mild overnight with lows ranging in the low to mid 60s with a
pocket of mid 50s over the Western Catskills region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
320 AM Update...

Upper level ridge with southerly flow holds for one more day keeping
temperatures warm on Wednesday with highs in the low to upper 80s.
High pressure slides to the east Wednesday with a system over the
midwest starting to approach our region by the evening. This kicks
off showers and thunderstorms that will continue into Thursday.
Thursday is a bit up in the air in terms of precip chances depending
on how far south the front can push before stalling out.
Another wave tracks northeast and into our region by Friday, with
more showers and thunderstorms. Models begin to diverge for the rest
of the period, therefore relied on NBM Pops through Sunday.
Temperatures during this time frame will be warm with highs ranging
in the low to upper 80s with overnight lows in the low to upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold front pushes through the region this morning through this
afternoon with restrictions likely in showers and possibly a
thunderstorm, especially KAVP. Conditions gradually improve to
VFR later this afternoon. However, low stratus behind the front
will likely produce some MVFR ceilings overnight and into Monday
morning.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday night into Thursday...Restrictions with showers and
thunderstorms possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MPK/MDP
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MPK