535
FXUS61 KBGM 170141
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
941 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a generally quiet night, there will be another chance for
showers and thunderstorms Saturday, especially in the afternoon.
Expect cooler weather with a few lingering showers Sunday.
Drier, mostly sunny yet cool weather is forecast Monday and
Tuesday. Another low pressure system looks to bring additional
rain chances by middle to latter portion of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
935 PM Update...
Things are settling down now with loss of afternoon heating;
just some scattered showers left near the I-88 corridor.

Axis of scattered showers and thunderstorms got going late
afternoon through early evening along a boundary; basically a
cold frontal segment which then reversed to a warm front in
central to west-central Pennsylvania; now lifting north near the
PA-NY border in the west. The 1000-1500 J/Kg of mixed layer
Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) was adequate for
thunderstorms yet generally sub-severe. However, mesoanalysis
Downdraft CAPE values were in the many hundreds to near 1000
J/Kg, suggestive of good downdraft mixing potential for any
higher cores. One of these did manage to go severe, with a
couple downed trees in Hamilton area. There was also a stripe
across southern Madison County where 1-2 inches of rain quickly
stacked up from training cells; street flooding resulted.

A small chance of a shower or isolated thunderstorm will exist
overnight as the frontal boundary lifts back north as a warm
front. However, generally benign conditions, with lows in the
lower to mid 60s.

Previous discussion...
While there is still a potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms on Saturday, the overall potential is decreasing
and therefore most of our region is now in a "Marginal Risk" for
severe thunderstorms, rather than a "Slight Risk." This is due
to relatively poor instability and lapse rates. There will be
slightly higher lapse rates across our far eastern areas
(Catskills-Mohawk Valley), so this is where the best chance for
severe thunderstorms will be. That being said, it is looking
more likely that most of the severe thunderstorms will be
located well north and east of our area, more across New
England. Otherwise, skies will be partly sunny on Saturday with
highs in the lower 70s to near 80.

Flow becomes more westerly behind the cold front Saturday night,
which will result in some wrap-around/cold air advection
showers, mainly across the Finger Lakes Region. Otherwise, it
will become much cooler with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

Unsettled conditions will continue on Sunday with scattered
showers as upper level low slowly exits to the northeast. Cool
northwest flow on the backside of the low will make for a
chilly and blustery day for mid May, with highs on Sunday only
in the mid 50s to low 60s. As this system moves east of the
region Sunday night, northwest flow will continue to advect cool
air southward, however, ridging ridging aloft will also be
building in, so the showers will be coming to an end.

Lows on Sunday night will be in the low 40s for most of the
region and a few of the coldest spots may drop into the upper
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM Update...

Dry but cool conditions are in store for next week as a ridge
of high pressure builds into the region, and cool northwest
flow remains overhead. Temperatures will be below normal
throughout the long term period. Winds will remain breezy Monday
as with a tight pressure gradient as high pressure builds in.
Patchy frost will be possible Monday night/early Tuesday
morning as temperatures plummet under mostly clear skies and
calming winds. Dry conditions will continue through at least
Tuesday as guidance has slowed down the arrival of the next
system. Another upper level low will move into the Great Lakes
region Wednesday with a surface low developing off the Mid
Atlantic Coast. This system will bring widespread rain to the
region Wednesday and Wednesday night with rain then continuing
Thursday. It is interesting that the GFS is showing T850 below
0C Wednesday night and T850 below -2C Thursday night into
Friday. Still a long ways out, but most of the models and
ensembles are in agreement for another cold upper low for the
end of the long term period, so at least expecting above average
precipitation and below average temperatures as we head into
Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected this evening, although
isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly at AVP
over the next hour or so. Brief MVFR conditions are possible as
these showers move through.

Conditions are expected to return to VFR tonight and remain that
way through most of the rest of the current TAF period. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow
afternoon, but confidence was not high enough at this time to
include thunder in the TAFs.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
result in brief restrictions.

Sunday...Scattered rain showers possible, especially at the
Central NY terminals, which may result in occasional
restrictions.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected.

Wednesday...Restrictions likely with rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/MDP
NEAR TERM...BJG/MDP
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...BJG/ES