669
FXUS61 KBGM 052335
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
735 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hazy skies will continue through Wednesday afternoon. A few
scattered showers and weak storms are possible Wednesday
afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure and dry conditions will
persist through the week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main concerns today and tonight are centered around the
potential for persistent hazy conditions due to the Canadian
wildfire smoke, the threat for isolated/weak showers and/or
storms over the higher terrain locations this afternoon and
early evening, and another push of high clouds from the south
that will likely keep away the valley fog tonight.

Upper level ridge axis continues to remain situated over the
Upper Midwest and central Canada this afternoon which is
creating a favorable flow pattern to bring southward the smoke
and haze from the Canadian wildfires across the eastern Great
Lakes and the Northeast US. Air Quality Alert remains in effect
through this evening. There is also the low potential for some
isolated showers and/or weak thunderstorms over the higher
terrain of central NY this afternoon and evening. The air mass
will continue to destabilize through the next several hours with
around 500-1000 J/kg of SB CAPE and low level lapse rates gt 8
deg C/km creating favorable conditions for low-topped
convection. The amount of dry air aloft will inhibit the threat
for any deep convection today. Cannot completely rule out a few
showers or weak storms.

A weak plume of moisture aloft is expected to surge northward
across the northern Mid Atlantic and interior Northeast region
tonight which will act to both push the smoke and haze to the
north, out of the area, and cause a layer of high clouds to
inhibit the formation of fog for most of the area tonight and
Wed morning. Cannot rule out some light valley fog over near
Corning/Elmira around sunrise, but the overall threat should be
limited.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A low-amplituded upper level ridge over eastern Canada will
shift eastward on Wednesday. South of the ridge a warmer and
more moist air mass will settle in and combine with weak
troughing to trigger some more widespread showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon on Wed. Surface temperatures are
expected to warm into the 80s for most of central NY and ne PA
both Wed and Thu. Dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s will
keep the air mass only modestly buoyant. ML CAPE values hold at
less than 500 J/kg with marginally steep low level lapse rates
and nearly zero shear. Deeper moisture will allow the convection
to initiate and grow with more depth on Wed than Tuesday, but
the storms are not expected to be organized and are not expected
to become severe.

There is some concern for more afternoon convection on
Thursday, but the trough becomes flatter on Thu and with limited
boundary layer moisture, the areal coverage of convection
should be less than Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Heights aloft build across the Northeast on Friday and persist
into Saturday, along with gradual warming temperatures. The
large scale suppression retains it`s firm grip on the area with
minimal to zero chances for precipitation over the region into
the end of the week.

Temperatures in the low to mid 80s on Friday will be into the mid to
upper 80s by Saturday...with dew points in the lower 60s.

Sunday and Monday...Large scale ridge pattern will build even
morning on Sunday and Monday next week with 500mb heights
potentially exceeding 590 dm. 850mb temperatures will also climb
into the +17 to +19 deg C range, which will likely translate
into high temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s. The air
mass will be slightly (but noticeably) more humid too. Dew
points in the mid 60s will make it feel much hotter. There is
some indication that the ridge will break down later on Tuesday
with the next incoming short wave, but this is still too far out
for much certainty at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Conditions will mainly be VFR throughout this TAF period. Smoke
from Canadian wildfires will remain over the region and does
briefly reduce visibilities into the MVFR category. Otherwise,
fog will be possible at ELM late tonight/early Wednesday
morning, though confidence is low. Guidance does not reduce
visibilities too much, so similarly to the observations of this
morning, conditions were capped at MVFR.

There is a chance for pop up showers and potentially
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. SYR and RME will have the
best chance for a shower so tempo groups were added. There is
uncertainty how far south these showers develop as some guidance
show showers extending south into the BGM and ELM areas.

Winds will be light and variable overnight and much of tomorrow.
There may be a period Wednesday afternoon where the winds stay
sustained at around 5 kts out of the southeast.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR besides some early
morning valley fog possible at KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Wednesday night for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Wednesday night for
     NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BTL