702
FXUS61 KBGM 060159
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
959 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet and cool weather is expected overnight under high pressure.
Mostly sunny and mild weather prevails for most of the day on Sunday
before a cold front sweeps through Sunday evening and Sunday night.
This front will bring periods of rain and a slight chance for
thunderstorms. Turning much cooler next week with scattered lake
effect clouds and rain showers around; mainly for Central NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
945 PM Update...

With clear skies overhead, there`s pretty good radiational
cooling already occurring and temperatures were running lower
that currently projected over much of the area. As a result,
blended in the NBM 10th percentile to lower hourlies and drop
overnight lows by 1-3 degrees. Gave winds a boost as well for
tomorrow afternoon and evening ahead of the approaching front,
especially over the higher terrain south of the NYS Thruway back
through the Finger Lakes and into Steuben County.

635 PM Update...

A couple of minor adjustments made at this time. Blending in
current obs, dew points were running lower than we had projected
by several degrees, so blended in the NBM 10th percentile to
lower them a bit through the remainder of the evening. Looking
ahead to the showers and embedded thunderstorms late tomorrow
into tomorrow evening, the CAMS are a little slower with the
arrival of precipitation into the Finger Lakes region, but they
have tended to be a bit too slow as of late. This is something
to monitor going forward.

245 PM Update...

Skies will clear out this evening and through the overnight as a
1023mb surface high builds in from the north. Winds will become
light and variable overnight with ideal radiational cooling conditions
expected. Lows dip down into upper 30s to mid-40s over the region;
and while we cannot rule out patchy frost in the coldest rural
valley locations, it was not a high enough probability to issue
any frost advisories at this time. Fog will also be likely in
the typical river valley locations into the early morning hours
on Sunday.

During the day on Sunday the next frontal system begins to approach
from the west with an increasingly warm southerly flow out ahead of
it. After the early morning fog dissipates it looks to be mainly
sunny through most of the day time hours. South winds increase
between 8-15 mph with a few gusts around 20 mph...this will boos
temperatures up into the upper 60s to mid-70s for highs.

The weather turns more unsettled Sunday evening into Sunday night as
a rather potent cold front barrels through. Expect a line of showers
and thunderstorms to move west to east over the forecast area;
starting between 6-8 PM in the west, I-81 corridor during the late
evening and then into the Mohawk Valley/Catskills and Poconos
overnight. Instability will be quite limited, but the shear will be
45-55 kts in the 0-6km layer, with strong forcing along the front.
This may allow some erratic and gusty winds to mix down to the
surface with the showers and storms during the evening hours...mainly
west of an Auburn--Ithaca--Elmira line. Therefore, SPC does have
this portion of the CWA under a Marginal Risk for severe weather
and isolated damaging winds. After midnight the t`storms will
end and it transitions to lingering showers as winds turn northwesterly
and overnight lows dip down into the upper 40s and 50s. Rainfall
amounts are forecast to be between a quarter to half an inch
for most locations...locally high amounts cannot be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A trough digging into the Northeast will sweep a cold front
across Central NY and NE PA Sunday night, bringing rain showers,
storms, and slightly below normal average temperatures. Behind
this front heading into Monday, northwesterly flow will help to
develop light lake effect rain showers for northern portions of
Central NY Monday evening through Wednesday evening. High
temperatures will likely stay in the 50s through the short term
period, with some valley locations possibly hitting 60.
Overnight temperatures will dip into the mid 40s overnight
Monday, and decrease into the mid to low 30s overnight
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure moves into the area Thursday, with dry and
conditions expected for the rest of the forecast period.
Temperatures will increase from the high 50s/low 60s Thursday
into the high 60s/low 70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure over the region drifts to the east overnight and
Sunday. VFR is expected through the period with the exception of
a valley fog risk at KELM.

KELM dense fog forecast is usually a slam dunk this time of
year, however, the latest forecast temperature does not appear
to go below the crossover rule. The model guidance also has some
spread allowing for uncertainty, with the HREF offering only
minimal probabilities for fog below 1/2SM. The historical fog
checklist showed nights of dense fog, but the antecedent
conditions were wetter than the past several days and the one
night with no fog still had a fair amount of moisture prior to
the event.

Thus, I am going to pull back slightly from the previous
forecast which had several hours of restrictions below airport
minimums. At this time, I`m not confident to pull fog out
completely given a favorable climatology, so will indicate
several hours of IFR with just a couple hours of occasional
minimum conditions from 11-13Z.

Light winds tonight becoming SE then SW 8-16 KTS.

.Outlook...

Sunday evening through Monday...Another frontal system moves in
more showers and possible restrictions. Slight chance for a
thunderstorm as well. A few wrap-around showers and lower
clouds may persist across north-central NY terminals Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Will have to watch for
some lake effect rain showers nearby at SYR and RME. There is a
chance for brief restrictions with these, especially Tuesday and
Wednesday with the cooler NW flow.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...DK/MJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JAB/MJM