322
FXUS61 KBGM 151628
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1228 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build into the region for the
remainder of the week. A cold frontal boundary with our next
chance of showers then moves through Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cooler and drier airmass will enter after the passage of a cold
front this morning. Any morning fog and clouds should clear out
fairly quickly today as a result. High temperatures also look a
few degrees cooler compared to yesterday thanks to the cold
frontal passage. Modeled soundings do show the potential for
some 20 mph or so wind gusts to be transported to the surface
this afternoon as well.

Clear skies tonight as high pressure builds in. However, just enough
wind should prevent an ideal radiational cooling setup. Another
night in the 30`s though and we will have to watch for patchy
frost where the growing season continues in the Finger Lakes
and Wyoming Valley. Thursday looks similar to today with the
potential for some higher afternoon wind gusts. Highs should
stay in the 50`s for most of the region. Model soundings suggest
quite a bit of mixing as well which could lower Rh values into
the 30-40% range during the afternoon hours. So, the possibility
of favorable conditions for fire spread is present.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday night looks the coldest as winds become light allowing
most places to fall to around 30. As a result, the potential
for a more widespread frost and possible freeze increases for
the Finger Lakes and Wyoming valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A slow warming trend should occur for Friday through Sunday as winds
switch to southwest on the backside of a high pressure system. Still
some timing differences with ensemble guidance on the next cold
front and shower chance in the Sunday and Monday timeframe. After
that, several disturbances along with Laker Ontario moisture should
keep a few showers around into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cool and dry air mass behind the cold front is making a
strong push across central NY and northeast PA this morning.
Northwest winds have started to ramp up, and will continue
through the afternoon with gusts 15 to 20 knots before
diminishing this evening. Cloud ceilings will remain mostly VFR
as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds are expected to
remain around 5 to 10 kt tonight with the exception of scattered
low elevation/valley areas where the near-surface layer
decouples and winds go calm. Areas of valley fog and brief IFR
restrictions are possible (15 to 25 pct chance) after 06Z
tonight...mainly at ELM. Winds at RME and ITH will likely not
decouple and become too northerly to induce restrictions
tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Chance of
valley fog each morning.

Sunday and Monday...Restrictions possible with a front moving
through, especially later in the day Sunday and into Monday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BJT/DK