755
FXUS61 KBGM 071901
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
201 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak system will push through the region today with light snow
expected across central New York. The weather pattern will
remain active, with several clipper systems bringing chances for
light snow over the next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Forecast remains on track through the period. A weak shortwave
is moving across the area, kicking off scattered snow showers to
our west that are slowly moving into the CWA. Showers are
expected to increase this afternoon, especially across areas
north of the Southern Tier. A cold front will push through late
this afternoon/early evening which will shift winds to the WNW
and kick off lake effect snow showers, first moving through the
Mohawk Valley area, then sliding into the Finger Lakes region
tonight as the winds become more NWerly. Light snow showers are
expected to stick around into the early morning hours before
high pressure builds in from the west and ends the precip. Snow
amounts today and tonight will be light, with 1-2 inches
encompassing an area from Cayuga to Cortland to Oneida county.
Localized amounts approaching 3 inches will be possible across
higher elevations south of the Mohawk Valley if a few lake
effect showers train over the same area. A trace to an inch will
be possible for the rest of the area north of the Southern
Tier.

Behind the cold front, very cold air will drop lows tonight
into the single digits north of the Southern Tier and low 10s
over and south of the Southern Tier. High pressure building in
form the west on Monday will reinforce the cold air advection
and keep highs on Monday in the teens for most and low 20s in
the valleys of NEPA. Monday night will be the coldest of the
week as the center of the surface high sits right over the area.
Radiational cooling combined with the already cold airmass will
allow temps to fall into the low single digits for most, with
-0s across higher elevations east of I-81. Luckily the winds
 will be mostly calm but they are expected to pick up a little
 bit before sunrise, which would push windchills to 0 to -9
 across the region.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure moves east of the area Tuesday morning as the next
set of shortwaves move into the Great Lakes and upper Midwest.
Winds will become southerly on Tuesday and push warmer air into
the region from the south. Strong southerly winds of 10-20mph
with gusts up to 30mph will push temps into the mid 20s by mid
afternoon. A weak shortwave exiting the eastern Great Lakes
combined with isentropic lift from the WAA will kick off
scattered snow showers across the area in the afternoon and
evening. Some lake enhanced showers will stick around north of
the Southern Tier into the overnight hours.

A much stronger shortwave will be right on its tail, moving into
the area on Wednesday. A surface low will develop over the Great
Lakes Tuesday night and the center of the low will track north
of our CWA across Ontario on Wednesday. Precip will move in on
Wed morning as snow, then change to an elevation based
rain/snow mix as temps climb into the mid to upper 30s by the
afternoon for most of the area. A change back to all snow will
return during the evening as a cold front moves through the area
from the NW. Lake effect snow showers will remain during the
overnight hours across CNY.

Northern Oneida county is expected to remain cold enough for
snow to continue to fall through the day on Wednesday, with
lake enhanced showers remaining through the overnight hours.
The SW flow that is expected to be dominant through the day will
provide upslope lift into the area that will help enhance
snowfall chances. Currently, 2-5 inches is forecast to fall
over this area through Wed evening, with more possible during
the overnight hours. Ensemble guidance is showing a 60-70% chance for
greater than 4 inches of snow across far northern Oneida county
during this period. We will be monitoring how this develops as
a winter headline may be needed for the area during this period.
Hindrances to this would be warmer air than currently modeled
moving into the region, limiting snowfall chances, or a
different track to the low which would alter snow amounts across
the region.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers should stick around the area Thursday
with -12 to -15C 850mb temps flowing over Lake Ontario. The wind
field looks to veer with height, which would keep showers more
cellular than banded across areas north of the Southern Tier.
After Thursday, guidance varies greatly as to how the next
shortwave will impact the region. What looked like better
chances for impactful snow yesterday now pushes any large low
pressure system east of the area as the trough and jet stream
do not amplify until they are over the Atlantic. Will have to
continue to monitor the development of this system, but snow
showers are possible Friday Night into Saturday, whether it be
from a low pressure system or a combo of passing shortwave and
lake effect snow. No matter how this plays out, arctic air is
expected to spill into the area from the NW sometime Sat
afternoon or evening.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings is expected to give way to
MVFR/Fuel-Alt restrictions as a quick-moving area of low
pressure crosses the area along with an associated cold front
this afternoon and evening. Some light snow is expected as a
result, mainly across CNY, with SYR and RME having the best
chance of seeing IFR or worse visby starting around 19-20Z.
There is some uncertainty how far south the snow will spread due
to some dry air in place and thus how far south the IFR
restrictions make it, but it can`t be ruled out at at least ITH
this evening, mainly between about 00-04z. Snow showers
transition to lake effect in the NW flow pattern behind the
front this evening and into the overnight hours. These should
bring intermittent MVFR restrictions to SYR, ITH and BGM most of
the night...and perhaps ELM at times as well. The snow showers
look to shift west and south of RME after about 06z Monday.

As the flow turns northerly and eventually even northeasterly
Monday morning, the lake effect showers and stratus clouds
should move away from our taf sites and eventually scatter
out/dissipate. Generally VFR conditions are expected after
sunrise (12z) Monday. AVP will see intermittent MVFR and VFR
CIGs through this evening and overnight; there could be a few
light snow showers or flurries here after the cold frontal
passage, but vsby restrictions are unlikely.


Surface winds will be west-southwest up to 10kts this afternoon
and early evening. Then winds shift northwest later in the
evening and overnight 5 to 15 kts. Winds eventually turn
northerly Monday morning and slowly diminish.


Outlook...

Monday afternoon and night...VFR expected.

Tuesday...VFR in the morning to early afternoon hours. Then, restrictions
possible in scattered snow showers late afternoon, evening and
overnight.

Wednesday...Restrictions likely as another frontal system
approaches the region with snow and rain showers.

Thursday and Friday...Restrictions possible with snow showers
possible in the area.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC/MPK
NEAR TERM...JTC/MPK
SHORT TERM...JTC/MPK
LONG TERM...JTC/MPK
AVIATION...DK/MJM