312
FXUS61 KBGM 272004
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
404 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds gradually build in this evening as a weak disturbance
produces isolated to scattered rain and snow showers,
especially prior to midnight. A stronger storm system will
impact the region beginning late Friday and into the weekend
with rain showers. Temperatures will continue to trend warmer
through the weekend and into the start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
400 PM Update...

Clouds will gradually build in this evening and skies are
expected to become partly to mostly cloudy as a quick-moving
upper level shortwave and surface cold front move through the
area tonight. Moisture will be limited, so showers will be
isolated to scattered in nature, mainly from the Twin Tiers
northward. Most of this shower activity is expected between
01-06Z. Showers can mix with or even change over to some wet
snow across the higher terrain of CNY, the Catskills and toward
the Tug Hill, but little, if any, accumulation is expected. Lows
tonight will be mainly from the upper 20s to the mid 30s, with
mid 20s toward the Tug Hill.

High pressure will briefly build back in early tomorrow leading
to a dry start to the day. Some sunshine early will fade behind
an increase in clouds as a warm front begins to approach from
the south and west. Scattered showers will start to break out
ahead of the front tomorrow afternoon and will spread north and
east late in the day and into tomorrow evening. Highs tomorrow
will be from the upper 40s to the upper 50s with some places in
the Wyoming Valley and Delaware River Valley in NE PA nearing
60 degrees. It will be noticeably cooler though across northern
Oneida County in the low to mid 40s. As the front lifts
northward, showers will persist tomorrow night, and look to be
most numerous north of the Southern Tier. A wide range in low
temperatures is expected tomorrow night with lows mainly from
the low 40s to near 50 degrees, and temperatures will be non-
diurnal in nature, especially south of the I-90 corridor, rising
during the overnight hours. North of the NYS Thruway corridor
will be noticeably cooler with WAA falling short of the area
prior to daybreak with lows from the low 30s to near 40 degrees.
With temperatures dipping into the low 30s in northern Oneida
County, there can be some wet snow mixed in at the onset of
precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A frontal boundary looks to setup near or over our region with a
wide range in temperatures. We should be firmly in the warm sector
Saturday. Modeled boundary layer temperatures suggest we could get
into the 70`s for highs as the yo-yo pattern continues. The warm
front should continue to shift a bit north along with the focus for
the highest chances of showers during the day. A slight shift
southward of the frontal boundary is then expected Saturday night
Sunday with additional waves of light showers. Temperatures look to
fall in the 40`s with more locations on the north end of the
boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The frontal boundary continues to be across the region Sunday with
additional rounds of showers looking like a good bet. If the frontal
boundary surges far enough north some instability and thunderstorm
potential may be present as well Monday. The environment looks
highly sheared ahead of the front as well. So if we do get some
instability as the ECMWF suite shows a potential for strong to
severe storms would exist. The front finally looks to sweep
through the region at some point in the Monday-Tuesday window.
The GFS/GEFS continue to be much faster pushing the front and
colder air into the region. Even with several rounds of showers,
rainfall does not look excessive at this time.

Lingered clouds on Tuesday a bit longer than model guidance based on
the typical NW flow pattern. A few lake effect snow showers are
possible as well with temperatures struggling to get out of the
30`s Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday look to start another
warming trend with the next chance for rain showers to move in
Thursday. GFS is a cold outlier solution at this time 3/27 12Z.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon with breezy west to northwest winds gusting 15 to 20
knots. A weak disturbance moving through the area tonight is
expected to produce broken ceilings and isolated to scattered
rain showers, mainly between 01-06Z. Given the spotty coverage,
showers were left out of the TAFs for now, but RME and SYR look
to have the best chance of seeing any precipitation tonight.
However, restrictions both in terms of ceilings and visibilities
are not expected. Along and ahead of the cold front with this
disturbance, there can be some borderline west-southwesterly
LLWS for several hours late this evening through about 06Z.
Confidence was highest at RME and ITH to include at this time.
VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the TAF
forecast tomorrow.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon...Mainly VFR until scattered showers
developing late in the day and into Friday evening with
restrictions possible.

Friday night through Monday...Scattered showers and associated
restrictions possible.

Tuesday...Lingering restrictions possible early, then becoming
mainly VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There is an elevated risk for wildfire spread today, especially
in northeastern PA. From state officials, fine fuels are dry
but dryness levels are above RFW thresholds. Relative humidity
today is expected to drop between 20 and 30% this afternoon.
Winds will be breezy but not overly gusty as peak gusts will be
between 15 and 20 mph. Still, under these conditions any fires
that start could spread rapidly. Humidity levels will increase
this evening and winds gradually become calmer overnight.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BTL/DK
FIRE WEATHER...