783
FXUS61 KBGM 061031
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
631 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be mainly dry today with plenty of sunshine across the
area. Temperatures will be on the rise, reaching the upper 80s
and low 90s this afternoon and again on Monday. A more active
weather pattern returns early this week with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, before drier
weather arrives on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 AM Update

Strong upper level ridging through the near term will lead to
increasing humidity and temperatures in the near term period.

Anticyclonic flow and upper level ridging will be over the
region today. Can`t rule out a stray shower or t`storm across
the NY thruway corridor or southern Tug Hill plateau, otherwise
it will be dry and mostly sunny for the rest of the CWA. Low
level moisture is starting to increase, with surface dew points
expected to be in the 60s this afternoon. These elevated dew
points will combine with high temperatures in the upper 80s to
low 90s to produce high heat indices in the mid to upper 90s in
the valley locations. Heat advisories remain in effect, for the
Finger Lakes, Syracuse metro area, and now expanded into
Madison/S. Oneida county from late this morning through early
this evening. Heat advisories may need to be extended in time
through Monday for at least some locations...but there is
uncertainty with cloud cover and how that could impact
temperatures Monday. Dew points will be higher Monday, in the
low to mid-70s so it will feel extremely muggy out there.

Quiet tonight, with partly cloudy skies and muggy overnight lows
in the mid-60s to lower 70s expected. Monday starts off mainly
dry, but clouds increase and eventually showers and thunderstorms
become likely by the afternoon and evening hours. PWATs will be
quite high over the NW half and far SE portion of the forecast
area...between 1.8 to 2.1 inches. These high pwat values will
combine with MUCAPE values between 1500-3000 J/kg to produce
locally heavy rainfall in thunderstorms. The remnants of
Tropical Storm Chantal will be potentially enhancing the rain
and t`storm potential as a slow moving front sinks SE across the
area late in the day. WPC has our area in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall and isolated flash-flooding...this will
certainly be something to watch closely over the next day or
two. SPC also has a marginal risk for isolated severe storms
with damaging winds, across the NW half of the CWA Monday
afternoon & evening. Soundings show 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE, 25 kts
of 0-6km shear and over 1000 J/kg of DCAPE...so we will need to
watch for any better organized storms that may produce strong,
gusty to isolated damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
230 AM Forecast...

The frontal boundary will slowly slide SE through the CWA Monday
night. The ridge over the Atlantic will more than likely
strengthen from the latent heat release from the remnants of
Tropical Storm Chantal, which will push the parent low north
while the trough elongates to the SW and the front slows its
forward motion. Luckily, guidance currently has the remnants of
Chantal staying to our SE ahead of the front and moving into
southern New England Monday night. There is however a ribbon of
tropical moisture from the western Gulf that will ride the
western edge of the ridge and move into the area ahead of and
along the front. PWAT values will approach 2in across CNY and
NEPA Monday night as the front slowly moves through. MBE vectors
are short, meaning storm motion will be slow with a high chance
for back building of storms along the front. Warm cloud rain
processes; deep warm cloud layers (>10k feet) and long, skinny
CAPE profiles, all point to possible high rain rates with
storms that develop. 1-3 inches will be possible in these
storms, with the NAM currently showing a swath of 2-3 inches of
rain moving through the Finger Lakes into NEPA Monday night.
This is a bit of an outlier at this time, but the signal is
there for heavy rain so we must continue to watch it closely.

Tuesday looks to be cooler for NY as the front is progged to be
somewhere over N NJ into eastern PA. Highs will be in the mid
70s to low 80s for NY and mid 80s closer to the front across the
Catskills into NEPA. CAPE around 1500j/kg with 0-6km bulk shear
around 25kts will allow for some strong storms to develop, and
combined with PWATs approaching 2in, heavy rain and isolated
flash flooding will be possible over the Catskills into NEPA
late Tuesday morning into the evening hours. The front should
slide east Tuesday night, ending the heavy rain threat. Lows
Tuesday night will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 AM Forecast...

High pressure builds in behind the front, keeping Wednesday dry.
Temps increase as heat builds in from the south with highs in
the mid to upper 80s across the region. The rest of the week
will see temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, but
dewpoints will remain elevated in the 60s so it could feel a
little muggy at times. A troughing pattern returns for the end
of the week, with showers and storms developing Thursday,
Friday and Saturday. The latest run of the GFS shows a ridge
moving into the Canadian maritimes at the end of the week, which
would keep a lot of the rain to our south and bring cooler
temps to the area. Euro and GFS ensembles are showing hints of
this so we will be monitoring the evolution of the pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
630 AM Update

VFR through the TAF period at most taf sites. There will be
scattered mid to high clouds through the day. A marine cloud
layer looks to develop over the Poconos and expand northwestward
early Monday morning; this should bring MVFR CIGs to AVP late
tonight into Monday morning. This MVFR cloud layer gets close to
BGM around or just after daybreak, but climo points to this
likely ending up just east of BGM before starting to erode
Monday morning.


Light and variable winds early this morning, becoming south-
southwest 6-15 kts with the possibility for a few gusts up to
20 knots this afternoon. Winds decrease, becoming light and
variable again after sunset and through the overnight.

Outlook...

Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, with
associated restrictions.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...Mainly VFR with a low chance
for showers or a thunderstorm.

Thursday... Restrictions possible with some showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NYZ015>018-023-025-036-037.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MJM