839
FXUS61 KBGM 101133
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
633 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring some welcome sunshine today. However,
duel low pressure systems will then bring a round of light snow
tonight and Saturday to the region. After a short break, a
couple of clipper systems move through the region with
additional chances of snow showers next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Only minor edits to the sky cover with the sunrise update.
Forecast discussion below on track.

High pressure over the region will give way to to duel low pressure
systems with one in the Great Lakes and the other moving across the
southeast portion of the country. We still do look to have some
intervals of sunshine before high clouds build in this afternoon.
With some sunshine, temperatures should be a few degrees warmer
today well into the 20`s.

The systems approaching the region continue to show a
disorganized look. Model QPF continues to trend more on the
showery side with top amounts around a tenth of an inch tonight
through Saturday. With lows in the 10`s again we are looking at
fairly high snow ratios yet again. Still looking at inch perhaps
two of snowfall by Saturday afternoon. Attention then turns to
the potential of lake effect snow showers later on Saturday on
the backside of the systems. Most locations should get well into
the 20`s for highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
310 AM Update...

NW flow will continue across the region as the low pressure
system scoots off to the east and a ridge builds in from the
west. Some lingering deeper moisture will help enhance lake
effect snow showers early in the overnight hours across CNY,
but with 850mb temps around -10C and flow somewhat off kilter
through the lower atmosphere, lake effect snow should be light,
with 1-3 inches falling across the eastern Finger Lakes into
Madison county Saturday night into Sunday morning. The ridge
will continue to build in from the south, switching flow to
SWerly and pushing lake effect showers north of the region by
Sunday afternoon. The ridge will remain overhead through Sunday
night, keeping the weather quiet.

Temperatures for the period will be near normal, with upper 20s
to low 30s Sunday and lows in the upper teens to low 20s
Saturday night and Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 AM Update...

An Alberta Clipper will move into the Great Lakes region on
Monday. The surface low should be well to our north, weakening
and lifting to the NE Monday afternoon into Tuesday. We may see
a brief period of widespread light snow showers Monday night
into Tuesday morning, but most of the energy with this system
looks to be to our south where a strong jet stream will reside
along the lee side of the positively tilted mid and upper level
trough. The main impact this system will have is bringing WNW
flow back to the region and pushing cold Canadian air overhead
Monday night through Thursday, thus kicking off an extended
period of lake effect snow showers. Currently, Tuesday and
Tuesday night are showing signs of the best chances for strong
lake effect snow bands coming off Lake Erie and Lake Ontario as
-18C to-20C air at 850mb looks to reside over the lakes during
 this period. This would put the main snow bands over Oneida
 county(Lake Ontario band) and the Finger Lakes (Lake Erie
 band). Winds will shift to more NWerly Tuesday night into
 Wednesday morning as the trough slides east of the region. Band
 intensity should go down a little bit as slightly warmer air
 moves overhead (-12C to -14C at 850mb). Multi band snow showers
 should bring snow showers to CNY Tuesday night into Thursday. A
 ridge builds into the region Thursday, bringing a return of SW
 flow which will dissipate the lake effect showers.

Another round of cold than normal temperatures are expected
Tues thru Thurs, with highs in the mid teens to low 20s. Lows
will get progressively cooler, with mid teens Monday night to
single digits to low teens Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lingering MVFR ceilings near KBGM,KITH,KRME and KSYR should
slowly lift. Breakup but it should occur at all sites by 13Z.
VFR today with much lighter winds. High clouds come in tonight
with any restrictions from an approaching system holding off
till after 06Z Saturday. These restrictions currently look to be
MVFR from snow showers from roughly 06Z Saturday onward.

Outlook...

Saturday...Potential for widespread light snow showers in the
morning then lake effect snow showers with associated
restrictions. Highest chances for restrictions Saturday morning.


Sunday...Lingering lake effect snow showers possible, mainly for
Central NY terminals.

Monday...Snow showers possible and associated restrictions as a
clipper system approaches later in the day.

Tuesday...Light snow and lake effect snow possible, with
associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...AJG/MWG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MWG