144
FXUS61 KBGM 010953
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
553 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today with dry conditions expected for
the first half of the week. A frontal system moves into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

600 AM Update...

Updated Pops using a blend of Canadian and Euro as lake
enhanced showers have lingered into the morning hours. Also made
slight adjustments to temperatures and dew points using current
observations, otherwise remaining forecast is on track.

400 AM Update...

Surface high pressure builds over the midwest expanding into our
region keeping conditions dry today with mostly sunny skies.
Regardless upper level trough remains overhead for most of the
day before gradually moving east. This keeps northwest flow in
place with cooler temperatures expected as highs will range in
the low to mid 70s this afternoon. Breezy conditions are
expected this morning and afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots.
Clear conditions persist into the evening and overnight hours
with calming winds. This makes it a favorable night for
radiational cooling with forecasted lows ranging in the upper
40s to low 50s across the area. Went with the NBM 10th
percentile to adjust temperatures lower accordingly. Surface
high pressure centers over our region on Tuesday with another
sunny day in store and lighter winds. Upper level ridge begins
to push into the region with southerly flow returning. This
allows temperatures to return to the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
405 PM Update:

An upper-level ridge over the region begins to flatten midweek
as flow becomes more zonal. High pressure will remain in control
for most of this period though with dry conditions expected
through at least Wednesday. Temperatures Tuesday night will fall
into the upper 50s to mid 60s, and then rise into the 80s
behind a passing warm front that moves through during the day on
Wednesday. Skies should stay mostly to partly sunny throughout
most of the day but nearing evening hours, sky cover will begin
to increase ahead of an approaching weak cold front. The cold
front will bring a band of showers into the region by Wednesday
night. While instability is weak in most model guidance, there
is a slight chance for thunderstorms as well. PWATs will be 1.5
to 2 inches, so some localized heavier showers may will be
possible. WPC does have the majority in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall, but with the extended period of dry
conditions before Wednesday night, confidence is low that there
will be any hydro concerns. Temperatures remain mild, only
falling into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
405 PM Update:

The cold front should be mostly through the region by Thursday
morning, but has the potential to become quasi-stationary with
showers lingering as well. As a low pressure system moves up into
the Great Lakes region late in the week. A warm front associated
with this system will lift north into the region and bring another
round of showers and thunderstorms. The trailing cold front will
move through to start the weekend with yet another round of showers
and thunderstorms. High pressure builds in and brings quieter
conditions to the second half of the weekend.

Warm and humid conditions are expected throughout most of this
forecast period. Highs throughout the second half of the work week
and the weekend will be in the 80s. Lows will be mild as well, only
falling into the 60s. Dewpoints will climb into the 60s and low 70s
during the day. The cold front that passes through during the
weekend may bring some relief, but timing remains uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A stratus deck is spread across the area from northwest to
southeast. This is associated with an upper trough that will be
pushing through the area tonight and exiting to the east during
the morning hours tomorrow. This system combined with winds out
of the north-northwest can produce spotty to scattered lake
enhanced rain showers.

Expecting ceilings to bounce between categories for the next few
hours. TEMPOS have been included at all sites with ceilings as
low as IFR possible at SYR/ITH/BGM/ELM. RME will most likely
alternate between MVFR to Fuel Alt with MVFR ceilings possibly
making it down to AVP. Ceilings will gradually improve mid- to-
late morning tomorrow as high pressure builds in and clouds
scatter out.

Winds are expected to remain gusty out of the north-northwest
through the evening with gusts of 20-25 mph before easing a
little overnight. Winds are expected to increase again tomorrow
afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday night through early Tuesday morning...VFR except for
valley fog development likely for KELM.

Late Tuesday morning through Wednesday daytime...VFR.

Wednesday evening through Friday...Chances of showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...DK/ES