858
FXUS61 KBGM 092230
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
630 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance will bring a chance of snow showers tonight,
mainly to Central New York. Snow accumulations will be less than
an inch. Much warmer weather will bring a glimpse of Spring
this week, with mostly dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
625 PM Update...

Small increases were made to temperatures over the next couple
of hours as sunny skies over the region have kept conditions
warm. As the sun sets, temperatures should then be quick to
cool, at least where skies remain clear. Sky cover was updated
based on satellite as skies have been clear across most of the
area but clouds are beginning to spread southward. The rest of
the forecast was doing well and needed no additional changes.


240 PM Update...

A weak shortwave will push across northern NY tonight and this
may bring some light snow to areas north of NYS Thruway
corridor. However, snowfall amounts will be very light, with
less than inch expected. Lows tonight will be in upper 20s to
mid 30s, yet these temperatures will occur around midnight, as
warm air advection starts to take hold. By dawn Monday, most of
the area will have already climbed slightly above freezing.

Tomorrow will be another dry day, however winds will be much
lighter with high pressure overhead. With the lighter winds, at
this time, we are not expecting any fire weather SPSs will be
needed. Temperatures will feel quite pleasant tomorrow
afternoon, with highs in the 50s for most of the area and may
even see a few spots at 60 degrees in the Wyoming Valley and
the Delaware Valley portion of Pike County. Temperatures will
likely only climb into the upper 40s north of NYS Thruway
corridor. Ridging will continue to build tomorrow night and
temperatures will remain warm overnight with lows staying in the
upper 30s for much of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

High pressure moves east Tuesday morning as a dry cold font
approaches the region. Southwest flow ahead of the front will allow
temperatures to climb into the low to mid 60s. Overall a warm
pleasant day is expected with dry air in place. Mostly clear
skies are expected in the morning with clouds gradually moving
in from the northwest by the afternoon. Timing of the frontal
passage appears to be late Tuesday afternoon into the evening.
There is a slight chance to see a few stray showers with the
passage, but overall expecting to remain dry. Winds will shift
northwest behind the front allowing temperatures to fall into
the low 20s to mid 20s across CNY and in the mid 30s to low 30s
in NEPA.

High pressure returns on Wednesday with calm conditions expected
along with lingering clouds. Temperatures will be cooler with
northerly flow in place, highs will range in the low 40s and low 50s.
Winds will gradually shift back south Wednesday evening as a short
wave approaches the region. Short wave will bring a chance of rain
and snow showers to the region, but not expecting any impacts.
Wednesday night lows will fall into the low to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM Update...

Above average temperatures are expected during this period as strong
southerly flow sets up over the region. Conditions remain quiet and
dry Thursday and Friday with a system arriving over the weekend.
Upper level low over the central US will swing north into Canada as
it moves east enhancing an upper level ridge over our region on
Saturday. This will strengthen warm air advection and moisture
advection leading to initial showers ahead of the main event.
Negatively tilted upper level trough progresses eastwards on Sunday
allowing showers to becomes more widespread. Plenty of moisture
will supply showers throughout the day on Sunday as PWATs
appear to range 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal. This
heavy rain potential will continue to be monitored as time grows
closer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions expected through the period. There is
some potential for passing snow showers KRME this evening, but
unlikely to cause restrictions. Main impacts this period will
be for low level wind shear overnight into Monday morning at all
locations.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon through Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night through Thursday...Small chance of showers and
associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...BTL/MPK
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MPK