178
FXUS61 KBGM 280614
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
214 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and cooler air will move into the region tonight and
Friday as a cold front passes through the area. High pressure
with dry and progressively milder weather is expected for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
210 AM Update...

 Now through Friday...

A cold front is expected to pass through the area west-to-east
tonight into Friday morning. As this front approaches, the
pressure gradient pinches, resulting in increased southwesterly
winds for the Finger Lakes region and northern Central NY ahead
of the main front late this morning and into the afternoon
hours. The frontal boundary arrives this evening, and will bring
much cooler air that will funnel into our area. Although we are
currently sitting at below average temperatures, high
temperatures are only expected to reach into the low to upper
60s Friday. With west-northwesterly flow following the frontal
passage, scattered lake effect rain showers are possible through
Friday evening mainly for Central NY.


 Friday Night through Saturday Night...

The upper level trough kicks off to the north and east, settling
almost stationary just north of New England. Meanwhile, surface
high pressure attempts to build in from the west, but with
persistent northwesterly flow with the semi-stationary upper
level low, there are chances for scattered lake effect rain
showers for Central NY through Saturday night. Confidence isn`t
very high for the probability of lake effect rain showers, as
well as the extent southward they may go, so we remained with
the NBM solution.

 Sunday through Wednesday...

Surface high pressure wins out heading into Sunday as the upper
level low to the north and east begins to weaken and progress
eastward. Models depict a 4-day stretch of dry conditions, with
a warming trend of low to mid 70s on Sunday, to mid 70s to low
80s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A shallow surface high is building into the area from the SW
tonight, with NW flow continuing to push dry air and clouds over
the area. VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through
the afternoon hours. Once again, guidance is showing a small
chance for fog and IFR conditions late tonight. Confidence in
this happening is very low as conditions tonight are similar to
yesterday, where fog did not occur. The driving factor in
keeping fog at bay is winds just above the surface continuing to
be active tonight, even though they have decoupled at the
surface and winds are calm. Without additional moisture added
today from rain showers, fog formation seems unlikely.

A cold front moving in after 00z will bring showers to CNY
terminals through the evening. There is a non zero chance for a
rumble of thunder at SYR, RME and ITH, but confidence in storms
occurring is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.
Conditions should start out as VFR, falling to MVFR after a few
hours as ceilings lower with the added moisture from rain and
temperatures falling.


Outlook...

Thursday night into early Friday...A front will bring a period
of rain and possible restrictions to the area along with a low
chance of thunder.

The rest of Friday...Lingering showers possible, mainly across
CNY

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with high pressure
building in and lake effect winding down.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...JTC