114
FXUS61 KBGM 011852
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
252 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Partly to mostly cloudy skies and mild temperatures will
prevail this evening. A weakening cold front will approach the
area late tonight into Wednesday morning, bringing scattered
light rain showers. Warmer and sunnier weather will return for
Thursday and Friday. Two additional disturbances will bring more
chances for rain Friday night into early Saturday, and again on
Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
252 PM Update...
A mix of sun and clouds prevails across the region this
afternoon, with generally mostly sunny skies across the Finger
Lakes and the Mohawk Valley, and cloudier conditions further
south across NEPA. Southeast winds have been slightly breezy at
times, and temperatures have climbed into the upper-60s to
lower-70s in places, even mid-70s at Syracuse.

Cloud cover will gradually increase this evening as a shortwave
trough and associated cold front approach the lower Great
Lakes. Widely scattered showers will increase across the area
towards midnight, with more widespread light showers increasing
in coverage towards dawn. The front will stall out across
eastern NY in the afternoon, with showers gradually diminishing
by evening.

With the weakening front, total rainfall will range from around
0.10 to 0.20 inches across the Finger Lakes, tapering off to a
few hundredths of an inch in the Catskills and Poconos.

With the clouds and showers around, high temperatures will droop
into the lower 60s.

High pressure takes over on Thursday, with light southwest winds
advecting warmer temperatures again. Highs in the lower and
middle 70s will be common.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
200 PM Update...

High pressure will build into the region from the WSW behind the
decaying cold front. Even with the frontal passage, temperatures
are not going to cool off much thanks to SW flow pushing
continued warm air into the region. Thursday will be mostly
sunny with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s; about 5 degrees
warmer than normal. Thursday night will see dry conditions and
continued SSW flow, keeping overnight temperatures warm, only
falling into the upper 40s to low 50s.

Friday will remain dry and warm through the daytime as warm air
from the SW will poke into the region, bringing the warmest
temps of the week, climbing into the low to mid 70s.

A weak shortwave is progged to quickly move across the region
Friday night into Saturday morning. This will bring scattered
rain showers to much of CNY, with the best chance north of the
Southern Tier. Showers will skirt into NEPA, but coverage and
amounts look to be low at this time; less than 30% chance and
under 0.05 in of rain. Model soundings show the lower
atmosphere more moist than in previous runs, so showers should
be able to reach the ground. Rain totals will be light though,
with amounts between 0.05 and 0.1 expected. With the increased
clouds and winds, temps will be a couple degrees warmer than
Thursday night, bottoming out in the low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
220 PM Update...

Another ridge of high pressure will fill into the region from
the west following the shortwave passage Fri night/Sat morning.
The ridge axis will be west of the area Saturday, bringing
northerly winds and mostly sunny skies. Temps will cool down,
becoming more seasonable, topping out in the mid to upper 60s
with lows in the low to mid 40s.

The ridge will be progressive, sliding east by Sunday with
return flow pumping in warmer air into the region and bringing
highs back into the upper 60s to low 70s. A strong cold front
will push into the Great Lakes Sunday, moving through our region
Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing widespread showers.
We will have to monitor the evolution of this system because if
it speeds up and the frontal passage happens Sunday afternoon,
there is enough instability and shear to allow for thunderstorms
to develop along the front. Behind the front on Monday, cold NW
flow should kick off lake effect showers across CNY with cloudy
skies. Temps for Monday into mid week will be cool, toping out
in the 50s for most areas.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Plenty of cu across the eastern half of the area this afternoon,
though cloud bases are generally above 3000 feet. One exception
is BGM, where brief IFR ceilings of BKN028-030 are possible
over the next couple of hours.

Otherwise, VFR conditions and light SE winds will prevail
through the evening hours. Lower ceilings will arrive shortly
before rain showers late tonight. Generally went higher than
guidance for ceilings given the weakening nature of the
approaching cold front and the scattered light showers expected.
BGM is most apt to go IFR for a few hours Wednesday morning,
with fuel alt common elsewhere.

.Outlook...

Wednesday Afternoon...Scattered rain showers will diminish, with
ceilings slowly improving to MVFR by evening, and mostly VFR Wed
night, though BGM and AVP could hold onto ceiling restrictions.

Thursday through Friday...Valley fog possible in the morning;
otherwise VFR expected.

Friday Night through Saturday...Frontal system will bring
scattered rain showers and associated restrictions.

Sunday...Mainly VFR during the day. Another cold front with
showers and associated restrictions will arrive in the late
afternoon or evening.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BTL/MPH