231
FXUS61 KBGM 181040
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
640 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler air will move into the region today behind the departing
front, bringing much more comfortable temperatures through mid week.
Dry weather is expected through Tuesday, before chances for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms arrive Tuesday night
and Wednesday. It then dries out once again and turns slightly warmer
for the end of the week into the first half of the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:

 Much cooler and drier air will remain in place through mid week
with north-northwest flow in the mid levels across the region.

- Weakening wave passes Tuesday night, Wednesday and Wednesday night
with chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

- Hurricane Erin forecast to have no impact on our area; likely
staying well out over the Atlantic,  tracking east of the NC Outer
Banks and west of Bermuda by Wednesday night.

-A gradual warm up, with mainly dry weather expected Thursday
through Saturday. Can`t rule out a stray shower or storm Thursday
and Saturday. Dry weather expected on Friday.

Discussion:

Cool air remains across the region through mid week as high pressure
slides across Canada. Some clouds look to linger across NE PA this
morning, otherwise it will turn mostly sunny over the entire
forecast area this afternoon. Much lower dew points will be in the
40s to mid-50s this afternoon. Light northeast winds under 10 mph
area expected and high temperatures should reach into the 70s. Dry,
quiet and seasonable weather continues tonight into Tuesday with an
area of high pressure centered over northern New England. Clouds
will begin to increase over the area by Tuesday afternoon and
evening just ahead of the next incoming shortwave trough.

Rain chances have continued to trend a bit lower from a wave that
passes through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. High
pressure over southeast Canada stalls out to cause an impediment to
the wave; either weakening it or at least forcing it into dry air.
The 01z NBM has followed the expected trend in keeping Tuesday
completely dry, and lowering rain probabilities into the low-to-mid
chance range Tuesday night, Wednesday and Wednesday evening instead
of the earlier widespread likely PoPs. Thunder chances are even more
muted; just a slight chance Wednesday afternoon towards the Finger
Lakes to NY Thruway corridor. As the boundary dissolves, just a
slight chance of showers are expected to linger into Thursday for
some locations, followed by warmer yet dry conditions under high
pressure Friday. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will be in the 70s
areawide, with overnight lows generally in the mid-50s to lower 60s.

By Friday, Saturday and Sunday high temperatures are forecast to
rise several degrees, up into the low to mid-80s...but with only low
to perhaps moderate humidity levels expected. Dry and mostly sunny
weather is in the forecast for Friday, with gradually increasing
clouds and a slight chance for t`storms by Saturday. Chances for
scattered showers and storms increase to 40-50% by Sunday as a
stronger front and upper level trough approach the area.

Please refer to National Hurricane Center forecasts for details on
Hurricane Erin. But for our area, no impact is expected given the
likelihood for it to remain offshore and distant. The most it would
do for us is to somewhat encourage/enhance the already-expected
northerly low level flow on Thursday, keeping us generally dry with
near normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An MVFR cloud deck remains across portions of CNY and NEPA. It
is slowly moving to the SW and should clear ELM by 13z. VFR
conditions expected across the region through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected. Slight chance for a shower.

Wednesday...Chances for showers, with associated restrictions
possible.

Thursday...Mainly VFR expected. Slight chance for a shower.

Friday... VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JTC