400
FXUS61 KBGM 041811
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
211 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Nice and quiet this evening under clear skies, but rather cool
overnight. Largely dry this weekend and temperatures will be on
the rise, reaching the upper 80s and low 90s by Sunday. A more
active weather pattern returns early next with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Outstanding weather expected for 4th of July festivities. The
center of a surface high pressure system will move over the
region today. With mid and upper level ridging building in from
the west, winds will be out of the NW, keeping conditions sunny
and dry with pleasant temperatures. Morning temperatures in the
60s will climb into the mid to upper 70s in the afternoon. A few
80s may pop up in the valleys of the Southern Tier and NEPA,
but most should remain in the 70s. Fireworks weather in the
evening will be clear and crisp, with temperatures quickly
falling into the low 60s after sunset due to very dry air at the
surface. If enjoying an outdoor fireworks show, a light jacket
may be a good idea.

Overnight weather will continue to be clear and "cold" for this
time of year. With dry air at the surface, clear skies and light
winds, radiational cooling will drop temperatures into the low
to mid 50s for most, with higher elevations seeing upper 40s.

Saturday will see a return of warm weather as the mid and upper
level ridges move eastward and warm air from the central us
spills into the region. Winds become more WSW as the day
progresses, pushing temps into the low to mid 80s across the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
215 AM Update

Main concerns in this period will be the building heat and humidity
and the potential for showers and thunderstorms by Monday afternoon
and evening.

Saturday night will feature partly cloudy to mainly clear conditions
with weak surface ridging over the area...and building 500mb
heights. It will be mild and a little humid with lows in the 60s for
most locations. A warm southwest flow takes hold by Sunday, as the
offshore Bermuda high pumps heat and humidity into the region.
Sunday will feature mostly sunny skies with highs reaching the upper
80s to lower 90s areawide. With surface dew points in the mid to
upper 60s the heat index will feel several degrees higher in the
afternoon and early evening hours. In fact the max heat index still
has the potential to reach the mid to upper 90s in the valleys and
lower elevations of the Finger Lakes, Central Southern Tier,
Syracuse metro and the Mohawk Valley. There is still time to wait on
any heat headlines, as confidence in exact temperatures and dew
points increases. Sunday night should be precipitation free, with
partly cloudy skies and muggy conditons. Overnight lows only dip
down into the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Another very warm to hot day expected on Monday with highs in the.
mid-80s to lower 90s. A slow moving front and shortwave trough could
push through the area during the day. This feature will combine with
MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg, 25-30 kts of deep layer shear and elevated
pwats near 2" to bring scattered showers and storms to the area...
mainly in the afternoon and evening. A few storms could become
better organized, with a marginal risk for excessive, heavy
rainfall noted from WPC over the NW half of the CWA. A few lingering
showers and/or storms will be possible Monday night as the front
stalls over the southern half of the CWA. Expected mainly cloudy
and muggy conditions with lows 65 to 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
215 AM Update

A fairly typical mid summer weather looks to be setting up for next
week. A lingering weak wave will keep a chance for pop up showers
and t`storms Tuesday afternoon over the eastern/southern half of the
forecast area. Otherwise, it will be partly sunny and humid with
highs in the low to mid-80s for most locations. Light northwest
winds will be in place, between 5 to 10 mph. A zonal, to broadly
cyclonic upper level flow pattern will be in place for midweek. This
will keep a chance for scattered, pop up t`storms Wednesday
PM...except only a slight chance along and north of I-90.
Temperatures hold steady, within a degree or two of Tuesday`s
forecast noted above. Still somewhat humid, with surface dew points
in the 60s expected. The upper level trough sharpens over the area
Thursday into next Friday...with another wave or low undercutting
the region across the Mid-Atlantic or Carolinas. This will mean
partly to mostly cloudy conditions here...with elevated shower and
storm chances (45-60%) each day. Highs should be in the upper 70s to
low 80s and overnight lows in the low to mid-60s...which is close to
average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through much of the
TAF period. Model soundings suggest some shallow fog is possible
early tomorrow morning at ELM, especially with good radiational
cooling tonight, but not all guidance was onboard, so added a
TEMPO for some MVFR fog for now from 08-12Z. Winds will become
light and variable tonight before becoming south-southwesterly
tomorrow.


Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, with
associated restrictions.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a low chance for showers or a
thunderstorm.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM..MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...DK