079
FXUS61 KBGM 300729
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
329 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds back into the area today through Tuesday,
bringing partly cloudy and mild conditions. Another round of showers
is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front moves
across the region. A return to dry, mostly sunny and seasonable
weather is likely by the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 AM Update

Generally quiet weather expected through the near term period over
the forecast area; with above average temperatures prevailing.

Areas of fog and low clouds are lingering around the forecast area
this morning. These will gradually lift and scatter out, leaving
behind still plenty of mid and high level clouds. The overall theme
for this afternoon will be more in the way of filtered sunshine
across north-central NY, with thicker clouds lingering for NE PA.
The entire CWA should remain dry though as a 1020 mb surface high
nudges in from northern New England, bringing a drier northeasterly
low level flow. It will be warm, with highs in the 70s areawide.

Tonight features partly to mostly cloudy skies with some patchy
valley for possible. The surface high remains in place and even
strengthens slightly; this will keep any rain showers at bay, off to
our southwest across west-central PA and points south. A touch
cooler with lows in the 50s.

Not much change on Tuesday as the area of high pressure is able
to hold on just longer enough to give us another dry day across
CNY and NE PA. Mid level dry air in place at 700mb will aid in
keeping us rain free. Skies will generally be partly sunny
through the day, with scattered clouds around. Another mild day,
with highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s expected; which is about
5-7 degrees above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
325 AM Update...

A shortwave trough will move into the Great Lakes region
Tuesday night and a surface cold will be approaching from the
west. This front has trended a little be slower in speed over
the past 24 hours or so, but the boundary looks to reach far
western portions of our area by early Wednesday morning bringing
with it our next chance of showers. The best chance for showers
is expected to be late Tuesday night through midday Wednesday
with PoPs highest from the Finger Lakes region through the
Mohawk Valley (50-70%). High temperatures Wednesday will be in
the 60s. The cold front should exit to the east by Wednesday
evening and bring an end to any shower activity. High pressure
starts to build in later Wednesday night and skies will be
clearing out. With calm winds in place, this sets up a pretty
good radiational cooling night, especially west of I-81 as there
is a little bit of uncertainty as to how quickly clouds clear
to the east. Lows Wednesday night fall back into the 40s and
50s, with some lower 40s possible in some of the higher terrain
and northern Oneida County.

High pressure will promote dry conditions Thursday with
sunshine. Afternoon high temperatures trend warmer as highs
range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s. Lows Thursday night
again reach the 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
325 AM Update...

Friday is expected to remain dry through the day time with some
sunshine, then Friday night into Saturday the next shortwave
trough and surface cold front move through the region bringing
the next chance of showers. This far out there is some
uncertainty with regards to timing or how much rain may fall, so
followed the NBM with low chance PoPs for now. Strong high
pressure is expected to build back in for the later half of the
weekend.

High temperatures Friday are mainly in the low and mid 70s,
before trending more seasonable over the weekend into the 60s as
a cooler, northwesterly flow develops. There may even be the
potential for some frost Saturday night with clear skies
expected and overnight lows potentially in the upper 30s to mid
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2 AM Update

High pressure continues to build in from the north early this
morning. However, abundant low level moisture will remain in
place through at least the mid-morning hours with ceilings and
visibility restrictions...IFR/LIFR or worse at BGM, ELM and
ITH. There is also a chance for IFR fog at SYR before daybreak,
and this is now included in the TAF here; there is a slight
chance for fog at RME, but confidence was too low to include in
the latest TAF update.

AVP cigs still looks to remain mostly MVFR through the rest of
this morning, before finally lifting around 17z. All forecast
terminals appear to go VFR by 14-17Z. Winds will remain light
and variable tonight and more dominantly from the E/SE on Monday
3 to 8 kt.

.Outlook...

Late Tonight through Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected; valley fog
possible during the early morning at ELM.

Tuesday night into Wednesday...Scattered rain showers may bring
occasional restrictions.

Thursday through Friday...Valley fog possible in the morning;
otherwise VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BJT/MJM