557
FXUS61 KBGM 130634
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
234 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers linger today before drying out from west to east
later this afternoon and evening. Cooler and dry weather returns
Tuesday into Thursday before a warm up into this weekend.

&&

230 AM update...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Rain has struggled to move west early this morning, with water
vapor imagery showing a bit of a dry slot working its way into
NEPA and CNY. As the coastal low deepens this morning into the
early afternoon, the coastal low should become more dominant and
the weaker upper level low over N central PA will have its dry
slot saturate. With the shorter window of rainfall, QPF amounts
today have been lowered so most areas will see closer to a
quarter inch of rain with only pockets of half inch to an inch
on the east facing slopes of the Poconos.

Tonight into tomorrow, the coastal low will kick out to sea
with drier NW flow developing into Tuesday. In some of the high
res models, there is a subtle 500 mb shortwave that is showing
up Tuesday afternoon but with the lack of moisture in the low
levels, it will be tough to get any precipitation out of it.
Likely a brief increase in cloud cover along with falling
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

With the Northeast between a large central US ridge and a deep
trough off the New England coast, strong NW flow and subsidence
keeps us dry through the mid week. Surface high pressure in
place under mostly clear skies will lead to chances of frost and
freezes once again Wednesday night and Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

The central US ridge builds into the northeast Friday into
Saturday though begins to flatten out as flow tries to become
more zonal. The end of the weekend into early next week is
starting to look a bit more active as a trough ejects into
plains out of the intermountain west and an expansive surface
high sets up off the SE US coast towards Bermuda. This opens up
southerly flow out of the gulf into the central US and up into
the northeast so any shortwave or surface low that develops
ahead of the trough will have plenty of moisture to work with.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A coastal low will slowly move northward today. As it does rain
will become a bit more widespread than the isolated showers that
are currently being observed. Drier air over the region has
delayed the showers, so timing is somewhat uncertain at most
terminals. Rain and associated restrictions are expected at all
terminals this morning with ceilings initially falling to MVFR
and Fuel Alt. By around 21z, AVP, BGM, ELM, and ITH are
expected to see IFR conditions while SYR and RME will be on the
edge of Fuel Alt and IFR. Visibilities may be reduced at times
as well. The rain comes to an end after 00z for most terminals
but wraparound moisture may continue to support showers over SYR
and RME through the end of the TAF period.

Northeasterly winds will be quite breezy today with sustained
speeds of 5 to 10 kts and gusts 15 to 20 kts. Slightly higher
gusts may be observed at AVP. Gusts will subside this evening
and winds become much calmer tonight.



Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR. Chance of valley fog each
morning.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...BTL