795
FXUS61 KBGM 041837
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
237 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions today with high clouds giving way to some
sunshine. Not as warm as yesterday, but high temperatures will
still be near to above average this afternoon. A slow moving
frontal system will lead to periods of rain this weekend.
Turning chillier early next week with a chance of rain and snow
showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
235 PM Update...

Current high pressure over the area, with some high clouds
moving in overhead from an approaching system. Conditions remain
dry through tonight, with high temperatures in the low to upper
50s across Central NY and NE PA.

High pressure erodes as a disturbance moving north and east
across the Great Lakes overnight tonight will bring widespread
rainfall across the area Saturday morning. Heavy, intense
rainfall is expected at times as a strengthening low level jet
originating from the western Gulf will draw plenty of moisture
northward and PWATs will be rising to around 1.20-1.40 inches
Saturday. Additionally, wind gusts around 30-35 mph are
expected Saturday morning through afternoon for the Finger Lakes
region and the hills area south of Syracuse.

As this first feature continues to move off to
the northeast, rain showers may become more scattered in nature
during the afternoon or toward Saturday evening before the next
plume of moisture arrives. There is some uncertainty with where
the axis of heaviest rainfall sets up on Saturday but there
looks to be a general 0.25"-0.75" of rain through Saturday
evening with localized amounts of around 1.00 inch possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
220 PM update...

Main concerns in the short term are focused on the lingering
rain showers and relatively cool conditions on Sunday, followed
by the potential for a quick hit of up to 2 inches of snow in
central NY Sun night and early Monday morning...and a few light
rain/snow showers into Mon afternoon.

Large area of low pressure over northern Quebec will rotate
eastward Sunday night into Monday as a trailing cold front
draped over the Northeast back into the TN Valley slowly drags
itself to the east. This boundary will be the dividing line
between the warm/moist air to the south and the cool/dry air to
the north. A ribbon of 2-3 standard deviation PWs will ride
north/newd along and south of this boundary and provide the
moisture needed for widespread rain showers. This boundary is
expected to sag slowly to the south on Sunday as the cooler air
inches closer from the north. As this occurs, the higher
probabilities for precip move south as well.

Temperatures are expected to only climb into the mid 40s in NY
and into the lower to mid 50s in ne PA on Sunday.

The challenge with this forecast arrives in the form of a weak
embedded short wave and the potential for accumulating snow late
Sunday evening into early Monday morning. This short wave is
being resolved on some of the model guidance (NAM and GFS) but
is not on the CMC and the ECMWF, so attempting to discern if it
will occur is presenting a bit of a challenge. If this wave does
form and track on the cool side of the front, then there is the
potential for 1-2 (possibly up to 3) inches of snow from
Steuben County over to the northern Catskills and southern
Adirondacks...with the higher amounts in the elevated terrain
locations. Conditions remain dry to the north if this wave
doesn`t occur and areas south of I-88 will see the rain change
over to snow and only light accums. The current forecast
incorporates some of this snow potential in the form of a narrow
band of about 1-2 inches and a half inch or less to the north
and south.

Temperatures in the 30s Monday morning will only rise into the
mid to upper 40s close to 50 by the afternoon. The next wave
starts to push in from the northwest Monday afternoon. A few
scattered rain showers (and rain/snow showers in the higher
terrain) will occur Mon afternoon but with limited impacts
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
220 PM update...

A rather dramatic pattern shift will occur Monday night and
Tuesday as a sharp, cold Canadian short wave drops south and
southeast from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Northwest
winds will increase Monday night and temperatures will fall
rapidly Mon night from the mid 40s and into the mid to upper
20s Tue morning. As this occurs, forcing along the front and on
the southern edge of the upper low will trigger widespread snow
showers. The introduction of some lake induced instability and
steepening lapse rates could allow for the generation of snow
squalls with gusty winds as well.

The pattern behind this wave appears to be setting up for some
lake effect snow showers into Tue and Tue night. However, even
with 850mb temperatures around -13 deg C and a steady flow from
the northwest, the high sun angle during the day Tuesday should
keep the snow from accumulating too much downwind/southeast of
Lake Ontario.

The 850mb ridge axis starts to push in from the west Tuesday
night, which will start to bring the LES to an end. Some
clearing may occur early Wed morning which could trigger rapid
raditional cooling and bring temperatures down into the upper
teens and lower 20s.

Quiet weather conditions the rest of the day Wed as high
pressure builds in before the pattern shifts to the southwest on
Thursday and temperatures begin a climb back to near normal.
Highs on Wed in the 40s will be replaced by temperatures in the
mid 50s on Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through around 12Z
tomorrow. Dry weather is expected through the evening, then
for the last 6 hours of this TAF period, rainfall will start to
move into the area, with restrictions likely around 13/14Z as
rain intensifies. Some south-southeast LLWS is expected to
develop ahead of our next system, especially around ELM, ITH,
BGM and AVP. Confidence is too low for potential development of
LLWS to be included at RME and SYR, so this will continue to be
monitored.


Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday...Periods of rain likely with
associated restrictions.

Monday through Tuesday...Scattered rain and snow showers may
bring occasional restrictions.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with high pressure overhead.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/DK
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...KL