548
FXUS61 KBGM 111808
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
208 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through tomorrow with
temperatures remaining quite warm. Humidity levels remain
comfortable tonight before starting to increase later tomorrow.
A front moves in Wednesday with a widespread chance of showers
and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon, before drying
back out later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and quiet conditions will continue across the area tonight
through much of tomorrow as surface high pressure overhead
slides off to the east and upper-level ridging remains in place.
With the surface high off to the east tomorrow, there will be
an increase in moisture advecting northward which is reflected
by the dew points rising into and through the 60s. As a result
it will feel more sticky tomorrow, especially later on in the
day. A shower or thunderstorm popping up in one or two spots
cannot be ruled out in the afternoon or evening over the high
terrain with the influx of moisture combined with the heating of
the day.

Dew points were lowered a bit from NBM with its high bias as
most guidance caps dew points in the lower and mid 60s tomorrow
before increasing tomorrow night. As a result, apparent
temperatures look to generally remain below heat advisory
criteria in the valley locations of CNY. A few locations may
still have heat indices touching the mid 90s, but this looks to
be too brief and localized to warrant headlines at this time.
Lows tonight will be in the 50s and 60s. Highs tomorrow
generally range from the upper 80s to the low 90s. It will be
noticeably milder tomorrow night with lows in the mid 60s to the
lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper-level ridging breaks down Wednesday as a shortwave trough
and surface cold front move into the region bringing our first
widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area in
quite some time. While it won`t be quite as warm with the
increase in clouds and scattered convection, with the cold front
not passing through until later in the afternoon and evening
high temperatures still reach the mid and upper 80s. MUCAPE
values generally range from 1000-2000 J/kg Wednesday afternoon
and evening, but shear looks pretty marginal, around 15-25
knots, although the NAM is little higher around the Finger Lakes
and Lake Plain, closer to 30 knots. Mid-level lapse rates are
pretty poor, so severe weather chances are low at this time.
However, PWATs do rise between 1.50 and 2.00 inches, so locally
heavy downpours seem to be the main concern at this time.

Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected on Thursday.
Depending on the speed of the cold front pushing off to our
south and east, a small chance for a shower or thunderstorm may
linger across the Catskills and NE PA. A wide range in
temperatures is expected as high pressure and a cooler, drier
air mass build in from the northwest with temperatures in the
upper 70s and low 80s across CNY, while the Twin Tiers, southern
Catskills and NE PA are in the low and mid 80s with some valley
locations reaching the upper 80s. Comfortable Thursday night
with lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure is expected to be in control for the end of the
week with ridging building in aloft. Temperatures will gradually
rise Friday into the weekend, returning to the upper 80s and
low 90s by Saturday. A chance of showers and thunderstorms may
return by Sunday as the next frontal boundary approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will bring VFR conditions with mostly clear skies
and light winds through the period.


Outlook...
Tuesday...VFR expected.

Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with
a cold front can lead to occasional restrictions.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...ES/MPK