817
FXUS61 KBGM 100018
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
718 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will give way to a cold frontal passage with some
showers by Sunday night. A secondary cold front comes through
later Monday and Tuesday. After brief passage of high pressure
Wednesday additional showers are possible ahead of a cold front
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
520 PM Update...

Conditions remain quiet early this evening. Skies are clear,
though high clouds will continue to spread eastward through the
late evening hours. Temperatures are currently in the upper 30s
and mid 40s. Temperatures and dewpoints were the only parts of
the forecast that needed some minor changes for this update,
mainly to better match the latest conditions are a few
locations. Otherwise, the forecast is doing well and remains on
track.

     Previous Discussion...
High pressure will give way to an approaching cold front
tonight. As a result, high clouds will start to move in by the
overnight. However, a window for some radiational cooling looks
be present given light winds. Some spots do have the potential
to fall into the upper 20`s to low 30`s once again.

Clouds continue to increase as moisture is lifted along a warm
front. The best lift looks to be just south of the region and across
the NY Thruway corridor as the system progresses eastward. Fairly
good agreement of fairly widespread light rain showers arriving by
the evening hours. While the coverage looks most widespread in the
evening, a few showers should continue through the overnight.

QPF will match up where there is the best lift with the warm front
pushing into N NY and a secondary low pressure south of our region.
Top QPF amounts continue to trend slightly downward given the amount
of dry air ahead of the system with most locations getting 1/10-
3/10th`s of an inch. Temperatures should rise into the low and mid
50`s for most of the region. Temperatures may then fall slightly in
the evening before rising overnight as a strong LLJ ramps up.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM Update...

A large, broad yet weak low pressure system will be over the
Great Lakes and Northeast Monday. With Central NY and NE PA
being on the south side of this system, precipitation will
remain all rain showers overnight Sunday and early morning
Monday. The main front will pass Monday, with wrap-around
moisture from the Great Lakes and northwesterly flow will help
to maintain rain showers, this time mainly for Central NY,
through Monday evening. There may be some lingering, weak lake
effect rain showers for the NYS Thruway area into early Tuesday,
with that favorable northwest flow still present. High
temperatures drop from slightly-above average high 50s/low 60s
on Monday to seasonable mid 40s on Tuesday, after the
aforementioned front moves through Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
245 PM Update...

High pressure builds back over Central NY and NE PA Wednesday,
albeit briefly, with temperatures remaining seasonable in the
mid 40s to low 50s. Heading into Thursday and beyond, models
vary greatly on the next chances for precipitation. A shortwave
appears to form over the Great Lakes between overnight Wednesday
and Thursday, with some models having some rain, and mixed
rain- snow showers for higher elevations, for Thursday
afternoon, while other guidance has us remaining dry. We went
with the NBM blended solution for now, as this is far enough out
in time to account for the uncertainty that there may be
precipitation on Thursday. After this shortwave moves through,
northwest flow dominates, and lake-effect rain showers are
possible for mainly Central NY from overnight Thursday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through much of the TAF period
before rain is expected to lead to lowering ceilings and
visibilities. At least fluctuating MVFR restrictions are
possible as precipitation gets underway around 20-21Z Sunday at
most of the terminals. Near or just beyond the end of the TAF
period there is the potential for the rain to be heavy enough to
lead to IFR or worse restrictions for a time, mainly with
regards to visibility.

Surface winds will be light tonight, but confidence has
increased enough to add southwesterly LLWS for about 3-4 hours
early tomorrow morning at SYR, ITH and ELM based on the latest
model guidance and soundings. LLWS remains borderline for BGM,
ITH and RME during the early morning hours between 10-15Z but
confidence is not as high to include. As the TAF period ends,
southwesterly LLWS looks likely for at least a few hours at all
terminals in the mid to late evening as a warm front pushes
north over the area.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...LLWS likely in the evening at all terminals.
Restrictions likely with rain showers moving through with IFR or
worse conditions possible in the heaviest rain, mainly in the
evening.

Monday...Conditions mostly improving to VFR, though some lower
ceilings occur Monday night as a secondary cold front moves
through.

Tuesday...Possible lingering lake effect clouds and associated
restrictions early Tuesday in NY, otherwise VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday: Rain showers possible and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EST Sunday
     night for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...BTL/MWG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...DK