382
FXUS61 KBGM 031844
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
244 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in place tonight though a cold front
moving in tomorrow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms moves
through tomorrow afternoon with gusty winds and brief heavy
rain, mainly along and east of I-81. Cooler and unsettled
weather continues into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

High pressure remains in place with a few terrain driven
showers trying to develop in the Catskill Mountains early this
afternoon. Given the deeper cumulus over the mountains, cloud
cover was increased over terrain above 1200 feet with chances of
precipitation added for the Catskill region. Tonight, a trough
begins to dig into the region with strengthening SW flow aloft.
This increase in warm air advection and moisture will help keep
overnight lows warmer than the last week with the clear skies
and light winds.

Tomorrow, a front moves through with an increase in winds
through the mid to late morning. Forecast soundings ahead of the
front in the Catskills and Poconos are very dry above the
boundary layer so RH could get pretty low in the early
afternoon. With how dry it has been, this will mean there will
be an increased fire spread risk in the afternoon. Ignition
chances will still be a bit lower with most things still green
and no frost yet to kill the fine fuels.

Showers and thunderstorms will trigger along the front in the
afternoon. With 0-6 km shear getting up over 40 knots and Mixed
Layer CAPE getting in the 400 to 600 J/kg range, the risk of a
few severe thunderstorms have been ticking up. There are still
some limiting factors in the severe set up. The mid level lapse
rates are very weak, under 6C/km which will limit updraft speed
and depth. There is also a few weak inversions around and above
500 mb that could keep cores from getting tall enough to produce
enough precipitation loading to get better downburst. Still the
low level lapse rates will be steep and the LCLs will be high
so that could help with the development of a few weak
microburst. A few cells that take on some supercell
characteristics is also possible given that there is some good
directional shear and winds increase with height through much
of the depth of the atmosphere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Friday into the weekend is looking cooler and unsettled as low
pressure systems become stacked north of the Great Lakes. Winds
on Friday look to be fairly breezy for this time of the year
with 850 mb winds around 35 to 40 knots and cold air advection
plus still good solar heating will help mix the boundary layer
to near 850 to bring down some higher gusts.

A secondary cold front associated with another shortwave
rotating around the stacked low will help increase the chances
of showers Friday night into Saturday. Timing is all over the
place between all the models so PoPs were kept temporally broad
brushed rather than try to guess the timing. Once again with the
strong SW flow with the low to the NW, shear will be strong
Friday night into Saturday but being post frontal there is a
good amount of low level stability.

The stacked low pressure system will fill Sunday allowing the
pattern to become progressive once again with the long wave
trough digging into the Northeastern US. This puts us back into
a cooler pattern similar to this past week with day time highs
and lows below seasonable averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Sunday and into next week is looking cool and dry with a long
wave trough axis basically over the NE US. This keeps W to NW
flow with little in the way of precipitation chances outside of
a few Lake Effect showers when colder pockets of air aloft
rotates around the long wave trough. As the trough axis slowly
makes its way east into mid week, temperatures slowly moderate
back towards seasonable averages.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. We are
not expecting fog at ELM tonight/Thursday morning due to
increasing winds just above the surface. Low level wind shear is
in the forecast between about 06-12z late tonight/Thursday, as
southwest winds reach 30-35 kts at 2k ft agl. Surface winds will
increase by Thursday morning, out of the south at 10-20kts,
gusting to 25 kts at times.

Scattered mid level VFR cumulus this afternoon will dissipate
by sunset, with just a few to sct high level clouds into
Thursday morning/midday. Looking ahead beyond this taf period,
showers and scattered thunderstorms are likely late Thursday
afternoon and evening with associated restrictions.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Restrictions possible with showers and
thunderstorms moving into the region.

Friday...Lingering showers possible early, with associated
occasional restrictions. Becoming VFR in the afternoon.

Saturday...Scattered showers may bring occasional restrictions.

Sunday...Mainly VFR, but a few lake effect rain showers and/or
clouds across Central NY may result in occasional restrictions.

Monday...Mainly VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...MJM