163
FXUS61 KBGM 121040
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
640 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm start to the week with high pressure overhead today.
Remainder of the week will be unsettled with showers as an upper
level low pressure system tracks into the region for Tuesday
and Wednesday and lingers through Thursday. This system will be
followed by a cold frontal passage Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
215 AM Update...

High pressure will move east of the region today and this will
bring warm southerly return flow. Also, moisture will be on the
increase and push northward ahead of a low pressure system in
the southeast. Likely will start to see in increase clouds late
in the afternoon and this evening. However, that will be well
after we see plenty of sunshine for most of the day and some
locations will have temperatures soar into the upper 70`s.

Another upper level low pressure system will push into the Ohio
Valley on Tuesday and extend troughing into the Northeast U.S.
Enough moisture eventually comes north for the possibility a few
light rain showers toward sunrise tomorrow morning. Showers will
continue to increase across from the south through the day, and
showers look likely for NE PA and into the Southern Tier, but
rain chances will be lower across the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
220 AM update...

Very little change from the precious forecast as models continue
to indicate an upper level dominating our weather through most
of the week. Only major change with this update was the removal
of thunderstorms on Wednesday. Forecast soundings are not
showing enough instability across the area to add thunderstorms
to the forecast at this time, so decided to leave the mention of
thunder out for now.

Previous Discussion...

The cutoff upper low in the OH Valley will lift into the Great
Lakes on Wednesday and allow the stream of higher moisture air
to the south to continue to be displaced into the Northeast US.
Although PWs are only expected to be roughly 1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal...so not expecting a high probability of
heavy rainfall.

There also only appears to be a very small chance of isolated
thunderstorms Wed afternoon. With surface dew points in the mid
to upper 50s and temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s, the air
mass will only be able to generate low amounts of instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
225 AM update...

Again, not many changes from the previous forecast package from
yesterday afternoon. Unsettled weather looks to remain from the
end of the week and into the weekend as models suggest a cold
front pushing in Friday or Saturday.

Previous Discussion...
The upper low over the Great Lakes washes out Wed night and
Thu, and phases westward with the next incoming low pressure
system in the Northern Plains. The ridge to the northeast will
try to build back in on Thu and keep conditions overall,
generally quiet. A few showers or storms could pop up under the
ridge Thu afternoon, but the main concern will be for increasing
temperatures. Highs on Thu will be topping out in the mid to
upper 70s over most of the region.

More of the temperature and precip uncertainty arrives late Thu
and into Fri as the Upper Midwest low pressure system either
picks up speed and sweeps through the Great Lakes or holds back
to the west for a bit. These pattern differences produce varying
degrees of uncertainty with respect to both temperatures and
precipitation. Temperature spreads (10-90th percentile) on Fri
and Sat this week are on the order of 10-15 degF. Highs could be
in the mid to upper 60s, or in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Right now, confidence is leaning toward the upper end, with the
NBM indicating probabilities of temperatures greater than 80 deg
F on Friday upwards of 70-90 pct.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR conditions will continue today and most of tonight. Rain
showers will push in from the south early Tuesday morning and
MVFR ceilings may reach AVP, BGM and possibly ELM by 12Z
Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday night...Rain showers with restrictions
likely KAVP and at times KELM-KBGM-KITH. Isolated thunder
possible.

Thursday through Friday...Scattered rain showers and isolated
thunder possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK/MDP
NEAR TERM...MPK/MDP
SHORT TERM...BJT/MPK
LONG TERM...BJT/MPK
AVIATION...JAB/MPK