090
FXUS61 KBGM 070726
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
226 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak system will push through the region today with light snow
expected across central New York. The weather pattern will
remain active, with several clipper systems bringing chances for
light snow over the next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

No major changes have been made to the forecast over the near
term period. A shortwave and associated weak surface low will
pass over the region Sunday afternoon, bringing scattered snow
showers mostly along and north of the Southern Tier. The highest
chances for snow looks to be over the northern counties of our
CWA Sunday afternoon and evening. This system looks to be a
quick hitter with weak moisture availability so snowfall amounts
will be light. The northern Finger Lakes to Oneida county
should see around 1-2 inches of snow, with areas south to the
Southern Tier seeing a trace to an inch of snow.

Made a few small changes to the NBM forecast for early Monday
morning into Monday afternoon. Low level flow will come from
the NW originally, but flow turns more northerly by mid
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure pushes over the region Monday into Tuesday. This
will keep us mostly dry, but very cold as the mid level ridge
and surface high push cold arctic air overhead. Overnight into
Monday morning will be the coldest period of the week, as temps
will bottom out into the low to mid single digits across the
entire area.

Tuesday will see a warm up as winds shift to SWerly ahead of
another approaching shortwave. Highs east of I-81 will remain in
the mid to upper 20s while west of I-81 will climb into the
upper 20s to low 30s. Temperatures will be non diurnal and not
expected to cool much Tuesday night as continued SW flow pushes
warm air into the region. Temps Tuesday night should remain
about as warm as they were in the afternoon. Snow showers will
return Tuesday afternoon as a weak open wave pushes through the
region. Isentropic uplift will drive these showers, with the
bulk of the showers expected to be north of the Southern Tier
Tuesday afternoon and overnight. An inch of snow will be
possible across northern Onondaga, Madison and Oneida counties
with this first wave.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The overall pattern does not change much this week, with a ridge
off the west coast of Canada and a trough over the eastern
portion of Canada. This pattern allows Alberta clippers to push
into the region with cold air usually trailing them. This
pattern will produce the periods of snow discussed above, and
this will continue to drive clippers across the region through
the end of the week.

The first clipper of this period looks to push through Wednesday.
Precip currently looks to be a mix of rain and snow thanks to
the warm air advection that took place before this system
arrived. Lake effect showers should develop behind the system
Wednesday night as it exits to the east. Another clipper will be
fast on its heals, moving into the area Thursday night/Friday
morning. After the mid week clipper system, temperatures should
turn cold again and any other systems that push through over the
remainder of the week should be all snow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Most terminals are VFR early this morning, but ceilings are
expected to lower on occasion over the next several hours as
clouds build back in from the west with a cold front pressing
through. A band of light snow showers and flurries off of Lake
Ontario is expected to drop a bit farther south and may reach
RME and SYR but just MVFR cigs are expected if the band can make
it in. AVP is expected to remain VFR.

Some light snow is expected this afternoon mainly in CNY so SYR
and RME may see some IFR visibilities  starting around 18-19Z.
Confidence is lower with regards to how far south snow will make
it with a bit of drier air in place around ITH, ELM and BGM, so
it has been left out at this time, but MVFR/Fuel-Alt ceiling
restrictions are expected. The steadier light snow is expected
to end around 00-02Z, followed by some linger lake effect snow
in the typical spots in CNY.


Outlook...

Late Sunday Night...Scattered lake effect snow showers, mainly
in NY.

Monday...Becoming mainly VFR, but lingering restrictions possible at
the Central NY terminals due to lake effect clouds and/or light snow
showers in the morning.

Tuesday...Restrictions possible in scattered snow showers,
especially in the afternoon and overnight.

Wednesday...Restrictions likely as another frontal system
approaches the region with snow and rain showers.

Thursday...Restrictions possible with snow showers possible in
the area.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC/MPK
NEAR TERM...JTC/MPK
SHORT TERM...JTC/MPK
LONG TERM...JTC/MPK
AVIATION...AJG/DK