055
FXUS61 KBGM 070902
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
402 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler, but still above normal temperatures are expected today
along with some morning lake effect rain showers along and north
of the NY Thruway corridor. Seasonable and dry weather will
continue through the first half of the weekend, before the next
system brings rain showers to the area Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
325 AM Update:

Behind the passage of a weak cold front, winds have shifted to
a west-northwesterly direction, which has resulted in lake
enhanced clouds early this morning, especially across Central
NY. Some isolated sprinkles/very light showers are around, but
the majority of the area is dry.

Expecting this trend to continue as the rest of the morning
progresses, with a few lake effect rain showers/sprinkles
possible across Central NY, mainly along and north of the NY
Thruway corridor. After some morning clouds, expecting skies to
gradually clear this afternoon, resulting in a mostly sunny
afternoon for most locations. While it will be cooler than the
last couple of days, temperatures will still be above normal for
this time of the year with highs expected to be in the mid 50s
to mid 60s. Then mostly clear skies with lows in the mid 30s to
lower 40s are expected tonight.

A moisture-starved cold front will move through the region on
Friday, which may bring some isolated showers to Central NY,
mainly along and north of the NY Thruway corridor. Elsewhere,
mainly dry conditions are expected with partly to mostly sunny
skies. It will become quite breezy by the afternoon with
occasional gusts of 20-30 mph possible. Highs are expected to be
in the mid 50s to mid 60s once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Northwest flow in the wake of a cold front, along with a
shortwave trough dropping into northern NY and New England, will
bring a few lake-effect or lake-enhanced showers to portions of
CNY Friday night, mainly before midnight. Most models keep
things dry except for the Canadian, which generally does well
with lake effect, but can tend to overdo the very low end
events. With the pattern, it still seemed wise to keep a low-
end mentionable PoP downwind of Lake Ontario and hold onto lake
effect cloud cover a bit longer than what the NBM suggests as
most models frequently mix out the cloud cover too quickly.

Lake clouds will mix out on Saturday as high pressure builds
in, and northwest flow diminishes and shifts to the north.
Without that wind shift we`d probably be stuck under the clouds
for longer. Despite clearing skies on Saturday, temperatures
look to stay stuck into the middle to upper-40s for all but the
Wyoming Valley, where temps will top out in the low-50s.

Saturday night will be a little on the chilly side with most
areas dropping below freezing, and many locations into the
middle and upper-20s. The exception will be around the Finger
Lakes and Wyoming Valley where lows should stay in the mid-30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will settle east of the area on Sunday, and upper
level ridging will build in across the eastern U.S. Temperatures
look to slowly inch upwards on Sunday in response to southerly
return flow.

A cutoff low which is currently located over the Desert
Southwest, will eject northeast into the Great Plains by
Saturday, reaching the Great Lakes late Sunday as an open
trough. This was the system that was originally thought to be
the "kicker" to pull Hurricane Rafael northwards, but it now
looks like it will miss, leaving Rafael adrift in the western
Gulf of Mexico.

The trough, and associated cold front will eventually bring rain
chances to the area, as early as Sunday afternoon, but given
the pattern, it`s more likely to be focused on Sunday night into
Monday. Rain chances overall look likely, but QPF amounts will
be on the light side, especially lacking the Rafael
contribution.

Drier weather and temperatures a few degrees above normal look
to follow this system Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Post-frontal clouds will bring MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceiling
restrictions at the Central NY terminals this morning before
returning to VFR by this afternoon. There is a low chance that
KAVP may briefly see MVFR ceiling restrictions early this
morning, but confidence is not high enough at this time to
include in the TAF. Patchy fog will also bring occasional IFR-
or-worse visby restrictions to KELM early this morning. Isolated
rain showers are possible at KSYR and KRME this morning, but
these are not expected to bring visby restrictions.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday through Monday...Rain showers may bring occasional
restrictions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty westerly winds (occasional gusts of 20-30 mph), combined
with minimum relative humidity values below 40 percent in some
spots (especially Northeast PA) may increase the potential for
fire spread on Friday, especially during the afternoon.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...BJG
FIRE WEATHER...BJG