Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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835
FXUS61 KBGM 150821
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
321 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in with clearing skies today though some
clouds will stick around into the afternoon for areas west of
I-81. High pressure remains in place through the weekend with
dry and breezy conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
310 AM Update...

Upper level ridging will start to build in today with most of
the area seeing clearing skies but some weak convergence at 850
to 700 mb may keep clouds around longer west of I-81 into the
afternoon. As ridging builds in, northwest flow strengthens as
the pressure gradient tightens. Temperatures aloft dont change
much despite the strong northerly flow as the 850 temperatures
over eastern Canada are about the same as what is being observed
in the Northeast.

Forecast soundings do show increasing subsidence aloft with
very dry air above the boundary layer by Saturday. With full
sunshine, mixing will likely help bring that dry air to the
surface so dew points were lowered with the NBM 10th as well as
the Canadian regional as those models had the lowest forecasted
dew points. Given how dry the air is just above the boundary
layer, further lowering of afternoon dew points may be needed in
future updates. Minimum relative humidities Saturday afternoon
will likely fall below 35% with some locations down to near 25%
in the Catskills into NEPA so a fire weather watch is out. With
the strong NW flow, winds will also become gusty.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM Update

Overall, generally quite and mainly seasonable weather expected in
the short term, with no significant impacts anticipated.

Quiet and generally seasonable weather prevails Saturday night into
Sunday as a large upper level ridge moves overhead. It starts off
mainly sunny Sunday morning, with some high clouds increasing
through the day.

A weak frontal boundary moves through the area Sunday night into
Monday morning bringing some scattered rain showers to CNY, while NE
PA stays mainly dry. Temperatures look to remain above freezing
Sunday night, in the mid-30s to lower 40s, so expecting all rain for
ptype at this time.

Morning clouds and showers gradually dissipate from southwest to
northeast over the forecast area through the day on Monday. NE PA,
and especially the Wyoming Valley is forecast to see plenty of
sunshine by late morning and afternoon. Temperatures will be quite
variable over the region: ranging from the low to mid-50s for north-
central NY, 55 to 60 for the Twin Tiers (NY/PA), and 60-65 for the
Wyoming Valley and Delaware River Valley in NE PA. High pressure
returns Monday night, with partly cloudy skies and seasonably chilly
temperatures in the 30s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM Update

This periods starts off mild with upper level ridging in place
Tuesday and Tuesday night. The upper level ridge begins to exit east
on Wednesday as the next stronger weather system begins to approach
from the Ohio Valley region. It sill looks like most of the daytime
on Wednesday may remain dry, with increasing clouds and just a
slight chance for showers. Mild conditions prevail with highs in the
50s and lows in the 30s.

The slow moving upper level low then meanders toward and over the
region for Thursday, Friday and beyond. There is a good deal of
uncertainty with this system...including timing, amount of cold air
and the track of surface low(s) as cyclogenesis occurs somewhere
over the Northeastern US. The development of these surface lows has
been changing from run to run and different deterministic guidance.
This leads to lower then average confidence in forecast details such
as temperature, winds and precipitation amounts. What can be
ascertained from the latest guidance is that this period is
shaping up to be unsettled with increasing chances for rain, and
it could start to get cold enough for some snow to mix in at
the tail end of the extended period. Again, exact details still
need to be determined as we get closer in time, but there is the
potential for a stronger area of low pressure and plenty of
moisture/precipitation and wind energy moving through the area
late in the week. For now, considering the uncertainty decided
to keep most aspects of the official forecast close to the
blended ensemble (NBM) guidance. This gave highs in the 40s to
low 50s Thursday and Friday, overnight lows in the 30s and high
chance to low end likely PoPs.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR cigs look to hold on at ELM tonight through most of the
morning with low level moisture in place and not much to get it
to move or mix out. ITH will see some MVFR cigs as the moisture
pushes east with lower confidence at BGM. All other terminals
will see VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday...VFR. Moderate to high confidence.

Sunday night and Monday...Restrictions possible with showers.
Low to moderate confidence.

Tuesday...VFR. Moderate confidence.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High pressure will build into the region today into Saturday.
For today, although conditions will be dry, with minimum
relative humidity values at 30 to 45 percent, winds will
generally remain below 15 mph throughout the day. An SPS for
elevated fire weather conditions may be needed for at least
Delaware and Sullivan Counties later today, as winds across the
higher elevations of the Catskills may see occasional gusts as
high as 20 mph in the afternoon.

As for Saturday, wind speeds will increase out of the northwest
with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. A large portion of the
Leatherstocking fire weather zone saw a wetting rainfall Sunday
through Monday this past week and fuel conditions are not
nearly as critical in these locations, but an SPS for near
critical fire weather conditions may be needed.

However, portions of NE PA saw less rainfall and fuels remain
very receptive. Minimum relative humidity values will dip to
near 30% across the Wyoming Valley and Poconos Region and gusts
up to 30 mph will be possible through the day Saturday. A Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for Luzerne, Lackawanna, Wyoming,
Pike and Southern Wayne County, as forecast weather conditions
support rapid wildfire spread.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for PAZ043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for NYZ208-209.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...AJG
FIRE WEATHER...MJM/MPK