Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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835 FXUS61 KBGM 150821 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 321 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in with clearing skies today though some clouds will stick around into the afternoon for areas west of I-81. High pressure remains in place through the weekend with dry and breezy conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 310 AM Update... Upper level ridging will start to build in today with most of the area seeing clearing skies but some weak convergence at 850 to 700 mb may keep clouds around longer west of I-81 into the afternoon. As ridging builds in, northwest flow strengthens as the pressure gradient tightens. Temperatures aloft dont change much despite the strong northerly flow as the 850 temperatures over eastern Canada are about the same as what is being observed in the Northeast. Forecast soundings do show increasing subsidence aloft with very dry air above the boundary layer by Saturday. With full sunshine, mixing will likely help bring that dry air to the surface so dew points were lowered with the NBM 10th as well as the Canadian regional as those models had the lowest forecasted dew points. Given how dry the air is just above the boundary layer, further lowering of afternoon dew points may be needed in future updates. Minimum relative humidities Saturday afternoon will likely fall below 35% with some locations down to near 25% in the Catskills into NEPA so a fire weather watch is out. With the strong NW flow, winds will also become gusty. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 315 AM Update Overall, generally quite and mainly seasonable weather expected in the short term, with no significant impacts anticipated. Quiet and generally seasonable weather prevails Saturday night into Sunday as a large upper level ridge moves overhead. It starts off mainly sunny Sunday morning, with some high clouds increasing through the day. A weak frontal boundary moves through the area Sunday night into Monday morning bringing some scattered rain showers to CNY, while NE PA stays mainly dry. Temperatures look to remain above freezing Sunday night, in the mid-30s to lower 40s, so expecting all rain for ptype at this time. Morning clouds and showers gradually dissipate from southwest to northeast over the forecast area through the day on Monday. NE PA, and especially the Wyoming Valley is forecast to see plenty of sunshine by late morning and afternoon. Temperatures will be quite variable over the region: ranging from the low to mid-50s for north- central NY, 55 to 60 for the Twin Tiers (NY/PA), and 60-65 for the Wyoming Valley and Delaware River Valley in NE PA. High pressure returns Monday night, with partly cloudy skies and seasonably chilly temperatures in the 30s overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 315 AM Update This periods starts off mild with upper level ridging in place Tuesday and Tuesday night. The upper level ridge begins to exit east on Wednesday as the next stronger weather system begins to approach from the Ohio Valley region. It sill looks like most of the daytime on Wednesday may remain dry, with increasing clouds and just a slight chance for showers. Mild conditions prevail with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. The slow moving upper level low then meanders toward and over the region for Thursday, Friday and beyond. There is a good deal of uncertainty with this system...including timing, amount of cold air and the track of surface low(s) as cyclogenesis occurs somewhere over the Northeastern US. The development of these surface lows has been changing from run to run and different deterministic guidance. This leads to lower then average confidence in forecast details such as temperature, winds and precipitation amounts. What can be ascertained from the latest guidance is that this period is shaping up to be unsettled with increasing chances for rain, and it could start to get cold enough for some snow to mix in at the tail end of the extended period. Again, exact details still need to be determined as we get closer in time, but there is the potential for a stronger area of low pressure and plenty of moisture/precipitation and wind energy moving through the area late in the week. For now, considering the uncertainty decided to keep most aspects of the official forecast close to the blended ensemble (NBM) guidance. This gave highs in the 40s to low 50s Thursday and Friday, overnight lows in the 30s and high chance to low end likely PoPs. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR cigs look to hold on at ELM tonight through most of the morning with low level moisture in place and not much to get it to move or mix out. ITH will see some MVFR cigs as the moisture pushes east with lower confidence at BGM. All other terminals will see VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. Outlook... Saturday through Sunday...VFR. Moderate to high confidence. Sunday night and Monday...Restrictions possible with showers. Low to moderate confidence. Tuesday...VFR. Moderate confidence. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will build into the region today into Saturday. For today, although conditions will be dry, with minimum relative humidity values at 30 to 45 percent, winds will generally remain below 15 mph throughout the day. An SPS for elevated fire weather conditions may be needed for at least Delaware and Sullivan Counties later today, as winds across the higher elevations of the Catskills may see occasional gusts as high as 20 mph in the afternoon. As for Saturday, wind speeds will increase out of the northwest with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. A large portion of the Leatherstocking fire weather zone saw a wetting rainfall Sunday through Monday this past week and fuel conditions are not nearly as critical in these locations, but an SPS for near critical fire weather conditions may be needed. However, portions of NE PA saw less rainfall and fuels remain very receptive. Minimum relative humidity values will dip to near 30% across the Wyoming Valley and Poconos Region and gusts up to 30 mph will be possible through the day Saturday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Luzerne, Lackawanna, Wyoming, Pike and Southern Wayne County, as forecast weather conditions support rapid wildfire spread. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for PAZ043-044-047-048-072. NY...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for NYZ208-209. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG NEAR TERM...AJG SHORT TERM...MJM LONG TERM...MJM AVIATION...AJG FIRE WEATHER...MJM/MPK