174
FXUS61 KBGM 281737
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1237 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another system enters the region late this afternoon through
tonight with chances of rain or snow. A mild dawn quickly turns
colder Saturday, with scattered rain or mix showers becoming
snow showers. A few snow squalls may occur, as well as freezing
of any wet roads. Cold with lake effect snow showers Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
920 AM Update...

Gusty northwesterly winds continue across the areas, and we`ve
updated the near-term forecast to reflect that. These winds are
expected to start decreasing later this afternoon as a small
bubble of high pressure builds in overhead. Otherwise, near-term
forecast remains on track.


645 AM Update...
Main concerns are accumulating snow late afternoon through
evening in Northern Oneida County, and then potential for gusty
snow showers/mini-squalls Saturday as colder air rushes in which
could also freeze any roads that are still wet at that time.

In the very near term, with continued cool air air advection,
scattered snow showers moved across parts of Central New York
the last few hours, and now into the Northern Tier of PA to
Catskills but it is diminishing to flurries. Otherwise expect a
brief lull in activity up to mid afternoon, with daytime highs
of 30s to lower 40s except still upper 20s in Oneida County.

The next system quickly moves in late afternoon through tonight.
Moisture riding up the warm front of the system will result in
chance of snow quickly changing to rain this evening; best
chances in Central New York. Northern Oneida County will get
the steadiest snow of 2 to 5 inches this evening, aided by
orographic lifting into the Tug Hill, before mixing with rain
there overnight. Other higher terrain locations of NY,
especially east of I-81, could manage up to an inch of wet
snow. Temperatures areawide will rise through the night to
generally mid 30s-lower 40s during the pre-dawn hours Saturday.

Highs of 30s-40s Saturday will be early, because rapid cold air
advection will get going as a strong cold front blasts through.
There is concern for mixed rain-snow showers along the front
turning into potential mini-snow squalls followed by flash
freezing of any wet roads late morning into afternoon. Streamers
of lake effect snow showers and flurries will also get stretched
over much of the area, including another 1-3 inches of fluffier
accumulation for Northern Oneida County; thus the Winter Weather
Advisory there was adjusted to 4 PM today through 4 PM Saturday
to capture both shots of snow. Accumulations elsewhere will be
mostly less than an inch, yet still capable of slick roads
considering that initially wet surfaces could ice over.
Temperatures will crash below freezing from northwest to
southeast across our area late morning through afternoon. By
sunset, we are forecasting mid teens to mid 20s for most of the
area, on the way to much lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM Update...

Gusty northwest winds Saturday evening will usher in a strong
push of cold Canadian air. With the winds flowing over Lake
Ontario and 850mb temperatures falling to around -20C to -22C
Saturday night into Sunday, a strong lake response is expected
with lake effect snow developing. It will be quite cold Saturday
night with lows from the single digits to mid teens. Even some
temperature readings below zero are expected across northern
Oneida County. The lake effect snow continues into Sunday and is
expected to be multi-band in nature and focused across CNY
between BGM and SYR. As with other recent lake effect events,
this looks to be a good set up for some narrow but more robust
streamers developing off the Finger Lakes as well. Soundings do
show the low levels becoming drier late Sunday morning into the
afternoon, so while snowflakes continue to fall, accumulations
look more limited during this time before the column becomes
more moist again Sunday evening into Monday morning. With
northwest flow continuing through Monday morning and the
Canadian and Euro both hinting at lake effect snow
showers/flurries continuing, low end chance PoPs were kept in
the forecast through this time. Snowfall Saturday night through
Sunday night looks to be a general 1 to 3 inches for much of
CNY, but in the favored areas downwind of Lake Ontario and the
eastern Finger Lakes, some low end winter weather advisory
snowfall is possible for some spots.

Surface high pressure settles in overhead Monday afternoon with
winds becoming more westerly and 850mb temperatures rising as
the ridge axis moves in, and this will bring an end to the lake
effect activity. High pressure will remain in control Monday
night. Highs Sunday will range from the low teens to the mid 20s
with some upper 20s in some of the valley locations in NE PA.
Staying cold Sunday night with lows again in the single digits
to mid teens and below zero toward the Tug Hill. Not as cold
Monday with highs in the mid 20s to the mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
345 AM Update...

As the surface high moves off to the east Tuesday, strong
southwesterly flow will develop leading to a milder day. The day
looks to start of dry, but model guidance does show a weak
disturbance approaching that could lead to some spotty showers,
mainly for the afternoon and in the form of rain. Highs Tuesday
range from the upper 30s to the mid 40s.

A developing surface low over the central and southern Plains
is expected to track to our west and move over the Great Lakes
region Wednesday. This would put the CWA squarely in the warm
sector with deep moisture being drawn up from the south, so this
is looking like a soaking rain event with a general 0.50-1.00"
of rainfall. Temperatures on Wednesday can surge well into the
low and mid 50s for much of the area. There is the concern that
the mild air combined with the runoff from rainfall can lead to
increasing chances for ice jam flooding for at least the middle
of the week.

As the cold front with this system moves through, rain is
expected to taper to lingering showers Wednesday night into
Thursday, and as the flow becomes northwesterly bringing in
cooler air, some snow could mix in with leftover showers
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue, though it will be brief, however,
as our next system quickly moves in this evening. Lowering
ceilings, Low Level Wind Shear, and developing showers will
occur overnight into the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. KRME will
initially have snow this evening with possible brief MVFR,
otherwise though it will change to rain overnight. Remainder of
NY terminals will have spotty rain, though snow could mix in
towards dawn with approach of a cold front. KAVP will remain
VFR.

Outlook...
Saturday through Saturday night...Falling temperatures during
the day with lake enhanced gusty rain/mix to snow showers. A
few restrictive snow squalls could occur Saturday.

Sunday through Sunday night...Often VFR but still a chance for
occasional lake effect snow showers and associated restrictions
KBGM-KITH and especially KSYR-KRME.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...Small chance of rain or snow showers Tuesday; rain
and restrictions more likely Tuesday night as a system moves in.

Wednesday...Restrictions possible as rain moves through the
area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of yesterday (Feb. 27, 2025), there were three (3) known ice
jams in our area of responsibility, and probably countless
other small jams that have gone virtually undetected. One near
Cayuga Lake is causing flooding. Other reports, photos, and
videos show that the milder weather and rainfall has caused
river ice to begin moving on the Susquehanna and Chenango rivers
which means other river systems should be watched closely.
Moving ice can easily impinge on bridges, bends, and narrows of
rivers to form ice jamming and associated flood problems.

These trends are likely to continue through early Saturday before a
strong cold front brings another sweep of sub-freezing air to the
region which would help to slow down runoff, but also increase
chances for ice reformation over a couple days.

Another mild spell with light to moderate rainfall is forecast for
Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Projected river rises for that
time period are showing increased natural flows compared what
is expected to occur between now and Saturday. The chances for
"natural flow" flooding, are increasing due to rain and snow
melt, but are still less than 30% with the upcoming weather
system next week. That said, expected river rises would be
sufficient to continue breaking up river ice and moving it
along...potentially causing additional ice jams and flooding
downstream.

Now is the time to start closely monitoring for ice jams and knowing
where the critical pinch points are on rivers and streams moving
through your local area. Please report any ice related flooding to
local and county officials for relay to the NWS.

$$

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST
     Saturday for NYZ009.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/MDP
NEAR TERM...KL/MDP
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...