107
FXUS61 KBGM 011805
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
205 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
As winds and lake effect rain showers dissipate this evening, dry
high pressure takes over for the remainder of the weekend. A weak
front will pass through Monday afternoon and evening, generating
some rain showers, mainly in Central New York yet with light
amounts. In this unsettled pattern, additional weak systems may
cause occasional chances of showers later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Dry high pressure takes charge for the rest of this weekend.

Though winds have diminished, for now we still have gusts
frequently in the 15-20 mph range from a lingering pressure
gradient under cyclonic west-northwest flow. With 850mb a few
degrees below zero Celsius, a minor lake response has continued
into this afternoon though all in the form of rain showers
considering temperatures mainly in the 40s. Gradient will
further relax as surface high pressure starts to build in
tonight, and ridging aloft causes moisture to become very
shallow overnight with no more precipitation. Lows will be
generally upper 20s to mid 30s.

What remains of trapped lake moisture may take some time to
break up along the NY Thruway counties, but otherwise high
pressure will result in mostly sunny conditions for Northeast
PA to Finger Lakes-Southern Tier-Catskills NY, followed by a
clear sky Sunday night. Near normal highs of upper 40s-upper 50s
will be followed by lows of mainly upper 20s-upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
While some showers are anticipated with a frontal passage
Monday afternoon-evening, no high impact weather is foreseen.

After high pressure scoots east Sunday night, we get into a
temporary moderating return flow initially Monday, lifting
temperatures into mid 50s-lower 60s for highs. That said, this
will be ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Moisture will
be fairly limited with this front, and so while some showers
and clouds will encroach from the northwest the afternoon-
evening, actual rain will be quite light and probably limited to
Central New York. Spotty post-frontal showers could linger into
early Tuesday morning downwind of Lake Ontario, but with lows of
mid 30s-near 40 still not figuring on any real impacts.

Ridging sneaks back into the region for the remainder of
Tuesday-Tuesday night, extending from high pressure centered
over the Southern Appalachians. This will give another window of
dry conditions with highs mainly in the 50s, and lows mainly 30s
to near 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
We remain in a busy pattern in terms of frequency of waves or
disturbances, and yet none of it likely to be impactful.

A wavy westerly zonal flow will persist across the northern
U.S. during mid-to-late weak. Associated embedded waves appear
fairly weak and thus there is uncertainty in the timing of each.
Also, despite shifting winds, none of the waves appear to be
gusty beyond what would be typical for this time of year.

For now the better rain chances are with a passage late
Wednesday-early Thursday, and another around late Friday- early
next Saturday. Cannot totally rule out wet post- frontal
snowflakes in higher terrain as the 540dm 1000-500mb thickness
line weaves back and forth across the region, but again nothing
of real consequence figured at this time. Despite day-to-day
changes, overall temperatures wash out somewhere around normal
for early November.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lake clouds will remain overhead the Central NY terminals but
conditions should be VFR throughout the next 24 hours. There is
a slight chance for drizzle or light rain at SYR through the
evening hours. There is low confidence that fog will develop in
the valleys and impact ELM. Little to no guidance has it but
clearing skies, light winds, and moisture from rain yesterday
could lead to fog developing. The one uncertainty is cloud cover
as mentioned previously, lake clouds linger overnight. Also,
with plants becoming dormant, fog becomes less favorable.

Winds are still quite gusty this afternoon as observed gusts
have been 25+ kts. Those higher gusts are expected through the
afternoon at all terminals but become lighter this evening.
Around 00z, winds will become light and variable.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected.

Monday Through Thursday..Chance for periods of rain showers and
associated restrictions, especially for Central NY terminals.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BTL