307
FXUS61 KBGM 061428
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1028 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly sunny and mild weather prevails for most of the day
today before a cold front moves through the area this evening
and tonight. This front will bring rain showers and a slight
chance for thunderstorms. It will turn much cooler beginning
Monday with scattered lake effect clouds and rain showers
around, mainly for Central New York.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

1025 AM Update:

The valley fog has dissipated right on schedule and skies are
now sunny areawide. There will be just a few clouds arriving
from the west late this afternoon, otherwise expect full
sunshine and warm temperatures into the 70s today. Showers and
embedded t`storms hold off and don`t arrive until 7-8 PM over
the western Finger Lakes/Steuben County area. These showers and
isolated t`storms should reach I-81 in NY by 9-11 PM this
evening; and won`t reach the Wyoming Valley, Poconos, Catskills
and Mohawk Valley until after midnight as it weakens and rain
becomes lighter in intensity.


655 AM Update:

High pressure moves east of the area today as a frontal system
approaches the area from the west. As a result, a southerly
return flow will develop and allow high temperatures to get into
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Mostly sunny skies are expected for
the first half of the day before clouds increase from west to
east late in the day. A few rain showers or possibly a
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the late afternoon for the
Finger Lakes Region, but the majority of the rain showers are
expected to hold off until this evening.

A broken line of showers and some thunderstorms is expected to
move from west to east through the area this evening. Due to the
evening passage of this line, instability will be quite limited
and mainly confined more towards Western NY/west of our area.
Lapse rates do not look too impressive either. That being said,
with strong shear in the 0-6km layer (40-50 kts of shear) and
the rather strong front itself, some gusty to locally damaging
winds may make it down to the surface and therefore parts of the
Central-Southern Tier of NY and the Finger Lakes Region remains
in a "Marginal Risk" for Severe Thunderstorms in SPC`s Day 1
Convective Outlook. If any severe thunderstorms were to develop,
coverage would be rather isolated.

Behind the departing cold front, a west-northwest flow will
develop on Monday along with 850mb temperatures falling to
around 2-3C. This cool flow off of the relatively warm Lake
Ontario will allow for scattered lake enhanced rain showers to
persist for parts of Central NY, especially along and north of
the NY Thruway corridor. At the very least, this northwest flow
will allow for increased cloud cover for those same areas.
Farther to the south, especially from the Twin Tiers southward,
Monday will feature mainly dry conditions and partly sunny
skies. It will be noticeably cooler/fall-like with highs in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A strong upper level low dives into Ontario and Quebec with
northwest flow behind the front Monday night. As a result,
clouds and a few showers still look to linger particularly in
areas that typically lake effect. Temperatures should fall
toward 40 given the cooler airmass advecting in. The first in a
series of mid-level disturbances rotates around the trough into
the region Tuesday. Steep low level rates look to provide a
touch of instability to ring out a few more showers. Once again
the highest chances look to be just downstream of Lake Ontario.
Temperatures look to struggle to around 60 as well given the
northwest winds. Given the modeled steep low level lapse rates
some stronger wind gusts close to 20 mph may be transported to
the surface as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Additional mid-level disturbances are expected to dive southeast
into the region into Thursday keeping clouds and occasional Lake
Effect showers around. Our NBM guidance typically does poorly in
these setups. Clouds were increased through Thursday to account for
the typical bias. Temperatures may get just cold enough for a
few flurries to mix in for northern Oneida county early
Wednesday.

Clouds and wind look sufficient enough to where frost is not a
concern Tuesday and Wednesday night. High temperatures trend
downward slightly each day with values only in the 50`s on Wednesday
and Thursday.

The high pressure looks to build overhead Thursday night with clear
skies and light winds. This provides us the best shot at patchy
frost Friday morning with some valley locations falling into the mid
and upper 30`s. High pressure looks to remain in place with a
warming trend as the flow gradually switches to southwesterly by
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this evening, besides
some fog and associated restrictions at KELM this morning (which
will dissipate by 14Z or so). Rain showers and perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm are expected this evening at all
terminals. Did not include any thunder at any particular
terminal at this time due to low confidence. Late tonight/early
Monday morning, post-frontal lingering low-level moisture will
likely result in lowering ceilings to at least MVFR at most
terminals. Fog may also result in additional restrictions at
KELM late tonight/early Monday morning.

.Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR, but lake effect rain
showers and clouds may result in occasional restrictions at the
Central NY terminals.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BJG