410
FXUS61 KBGM 080309
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1009 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow showers continue across northern Onondaga
and Oneida county this tonight.The lake effect snow will taper
off and end by the mid to late morning hours on Saturday. Another
low pressure system moves in Saturday evening into Sunday
morning bringing widespread snowfall to Central NY and a wintry
mix to Northeast PA. Lake effect snow showers redevelop heading
into Sunday night with seasonably cold temperatures expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

955 PM Update...

Cancelled the winter weather advisory for lake effect snow in
southern Oneida county. Large low level dew point depressions
and drier air is preventing the lake effect snow from reaching
that far inland into the Mohawk Valley region. Only expecting
another dusting to 1 inch overnight for the Rome/Utica area.
Will let the Lake Effect snow Warning continue for now, but the
same dry air mass is not allowing for much in the way of heavy
snow across northern Oneida county. Latest model guidance shows
some chance for a minor resurgence of the steadier lake effect
snow overnight across the NW corner of the county; where up to 4
inches of additional snow may fall.

00z HRRR and NAM model data is coming in for the Saturday
evening/night system. The HRRR is showing a mid level dry slot
getting up into the Twin Tiers, which would taper off the steady
snow and bring a period of freezing drizzle or light sleet
pellets. Meanwhile the 00z 3km NAM keeps this mix a bit further
south, confined to NE PA. There may still be an initial "thump"
of heavy snow in NE PA, perhaps including the Wyoming Valley
before that mid level dry slot and/or a small above freezing
layer at 750-800mb moves in. Further north, across the northern
Susquehanna region, northern Catskills and I-90 Corridor there
will be a good FGEN forced band of snow; with much higher snow
to liquid ratios on the order of 15-18:1 here. This may result
in some higher snow totals in this area, despite modest QPF
amounts in the 0.40 to 0.60 inch range.

720 PM Update...

Lake effect snow continues to steadily stream off of Lake
Ontario across far northern Onondaga county, and north-central
Oneida county. The intensity has waned over the past few hours,
but webcams in NW Oneida still show generally light ongoing
snowfall. Will keep the Lake Effect Snow Warning and advisory
going for now; but only expecting another 2-5 inches in northern
Oneida and 1 to 2 inches additional for southern Oneida through
Saturday morning. The rest of the forecast remains on track with
just minor edits based on the latest CAMs and NBM. Snow amounts
remain very similar for the Saturday night into early Sunday
morning period. No other significant changes at this time.

130 PM Update...

Lake effect snow bands off Lake Ontario remains the main weather
feature for this forecast period.

Much of the areas south of the Mohawk Valley has clear to
partly cloudy skies as high cirrus will stream over the area
through the afternoon and tonight. Gusty winds this morning have
weakened to 20-30kts across the area, and should diminish this
evening as a surface high works its way in from the west. Temps
tonight will be cold, falling into the low to mid teens thanks
to the high bringing light winds and locking in the colder
airmass from the north.

Lake effect snow will impact the Mohawk Valley into Northern
Oneida county this afternoon into tomorrow morning. Satellite
and radar returns show a strong upstream connection to the
northern Great Lakes starting late this morning. This extra
moisture riding over a decent fetch off Lake Ontario has allowed
moderate snow showers to develop and stream over Oneida and
northern Onondaga counties. This wide, cellular band will remain
over this area into the evening hours. It is expected to slowly
lift north as a surface high builds into the area this evening
from Ohio and moves across the NY/PA border. This will cause the
wind field to be more WSW vs the current WNW flow. Currently,
the Lake Effect Snow Warning for northern Oneida county and the
Winter Weather Advisory for southern Oneida county look on track
with timing and amounts. 6-9 inches of snow should fall across
central and western Northern Oneida county, while 1-5 inches is
expected across southern Oneida county. Here, the low end
numbers will be in the southern portion of the area while the
higher numbers will be to the north where the snow showers are
expected to reside the longest.

The snow should dissipate by mid morning as the center of the
high moves east of CNY, bringing southerly flow and cutting off
the wind field`s access to the lake. Temperatures will rise
into the mid 20s to low 30s Saturday afternoon as the southerly
flow should be able to advect in a slightly warmer airmass.

A brief quiet period will be present in the afternoon before
the next storm system moves into the region Saturday afternoon.
Light snow should move from west to east, entering our western
counties late in the afternoon. Up to 0.5 inches should fall
during this period before the bulk of the snow moves in later in
the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
345 PM update...

A quick moving system will bring a burst of snow to the region
Saturday night into Sunday morning. This low amplitude pattern along
with a surface low over the Ohio Valley and an upper level short
wave over the Great Lakes will track east into the region. Both
features will merge, placing the area in the left exit region of an
upper level jet streak. This along with some fgen will help to
enhance lift especially during the 0Z to 6Z period. Although it is
important to note that the best fgen will be east of our region.

Another important factor will be how quickly dry air surges into the
region from 6Z to 12Z, this could impact how much QPF we receive.
Otherwise models mostly agree on a somewhat colder solution
with only the GFS pushing warmer air into the Wyoming valley.
Looking at model soundings, most of the area should remain below
freezing through the upper levels with mostly snow expected.
Although freezing rain and sleet will be possible over northeast
PA as the warm nose nudges in. Otherwise models begin to unzip
with dry air pushing in Sunday morning. A brief period of
freezing drizzle will linger into the early portion of Sunday
morning as conditions dry out over the DGZ, but remain saturated
through the lower levels. With differences in 850 mb
temperatures across the region, there will be a fairly decent
range in terms of snow ratios. There is still quite a bit of
variation in QPF, the NAM being the drier solution and the GFS
trending higher,overall blended the NBM with WPC.

In terms of headlines, went with advisories across the board as
confidence wasn`t high enough for a Winter Storm Warning. Snow
totals are borderline over central NY with amounts ranging 4 to 7
inches at most. All of northeast PA was also included in an advisory
with snow amounts ranging 2 to 5 inches along with ice accumulations
up to a tenth of an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Northwest flow behind a departing system will keep clouds
around and produce some scattered lake effect snow showers.
Model soundings Sunday morning do show a fair amount of dry air
intrusion for a time which introduces some mention of freezing
drizzle. Any snowfall accumulation looks to be under an inch
with highs generally around 30. Winds become more westerly
Sunday night shifting the main axis of lake effect closer to
the NY Thruway with additional light accumulations of snow.

Temperatures look to be several degrees cooler Monday with the
renewed shot of arctic air. High pressure over the region may
give us a window with light winds and slightly lower cloud
cover. This should be our coldest night with single digits for
lows.

A very active and wintry pattern continues given the base state
of arctic cold shots (-EPO,WPO) and blocking (-AO,NAO)
countered by a -PNA which promotes a ridge over the southeast.
As a result, several low pressure systems look to track from the
Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states
from Tuesday till the end of next week. For the most part
several rounds of snow are expected. However, there is potential
for the system late Wednesday into Thursday to track far enough
north for a brief interval of rain or freezing rain. It is too
early to pinpoint snow accumulations given quite a bit of
ensemble variability is present. The strongest of the low
pressure systems departs by Friday with a return to northwest
flow and the potential for some light lake effect snowfall.
Generally teens for lows and 20`s/30`s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lake effect snow will continue over RME through most of the
overnight hours. While conditions have improved there,
restrictions will likely bounce between IFR and VFR. By around
10z, the snow will come to an end but lake clouds will keep
ceilings low until after 18z Saturday. All other terminals are
VFR and will be for the majority of this TAF period. Snow will
move into the region late in the day on Saturday and that could
bring some restrictions to ELM and AVP, but there remains
uncertainty on the timing.

All terminals are no longer reporting gusts but some gusts will
remain possible over the next few hours. Otherwise, winds
become light and variable overnight and then settle out of the
southeast at around 5 to 10 kts Saturday afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday evening and night...Restrictions likely (IFR or lower)
with steady snow and perhaps some wintry mix moving through the
area.

Sunday...Snow tapers off to scattered lake effect snow showers
and flurries; restrictions possible (especially NY terminals)

Monday...A few lake effect snow showers or flurries possible;
restrictions possible for CNY terminals. Mainly VFR at AVP.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Snow and associated restrictions
beginning late Tuesday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for NYZ009.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...JTC/MJM
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BTL